Storm Eunice - 18th February

[Mike Poole]

4 minutes ago, Paul said:

Nope, it's the global model. Says at the bottom it runs at 10km, the UKV is 1.5km. 

Thanks, have corrected my post to avoid confusion.

[Jimmyh]

20 minutes ago, Ross90 said:

The fact that Dudley has become a bit of a dud with pretty significant downgrades less than 48 hrs out is probably a sign of things to come. This one will end up being 80mph along the coast and 50 - 60 inland in my opinion.

I am doubting that we will get that big a climb down from all three. It's on a different track and is right innthe middle ofbthe jet stream. 

[Wivenswold]

If we can learn anything from the Dudley downgrade is that this is a fast evolving situation and nothing should be ruled in or out just yet. 

One or two of the model runs will have already got Eunice spot on, there are a lot to chose from though. 

[Tim M]

To show how everything changes, forecast for my area (North Notts) now says the worst wind gusts for me will be Wednesday night as part of Storm Dudley - forecast gusts upgraded to 60mph by XC Weather (GFS) for example Wednesday night, rather than on Friday, with that model now reducing max gust for me from 75mph on previous run to 48mph .

As always with the weather I suppose we just have to wait and see. 

[GSP]

Midday Friday does not look at all good to me. And as it’s about to leave the East Coast later in the afternoon.

[legritter]

Morning gang ,all very interesting weather chat , brilliant posts which i enjoy ,shall i dare mention sausage baps and Stella s . Fridays storm still posing a problem to which track it will take ,but its going to be expected to give one hell of a blow for many .Its also becoming possible looking at the charts that we could see another possible 2 storms ,Franklin and Gladys next week , January was flat and lifeless, all we need now is a few channel lows with good tracks and we could shout SNOOOOW, Cheers gang .. 

 

[Thunder and Lightning]

06z GFS suggesting slightly increased confidence now. 

Like others have said we should wait for 12z to see if trend continues

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

10 minutes ago, Thunder and Lightning said:

06z GFS suggesting slightly increased confidence now. 

Like others have said we should wait for 12z to see if trend continues

Think it will be tomorrow when we can start preparing and have some kind of certainty. 48 hours is even a long time in these setups. Seen it before with the “now you see it, now you don’t”. I suspect 87’ was very much like that. 

[Snowyowl9]

NWly damaging direction once again like back in november..

But different track to that very unusual severe North gales..

Tough Oak trees uprooted from the north very strange..

[Guest]

I wish these 80s, 90s & 100s were Fahrenheit not Mph! 

[The PIT]

Far from a dud however too far south for us.

[stainesbloke]

Storm Dudley looking like being quite a strong storm for parts of Scotland, N England and N Ireland according to the Met Office, with inland gusts of up to 80mph possible, 90mph on coasts. It’ll affect Central Europe on Thursday with the Czech met office issuing major warnings today of gusts to 70mph widely and Germany expecting hurricane force gusts. 
Eunice looks nasty for much of C and S England on Friday with gusts up to 80mph inland, then hitting the Netherlands, Belgium and Germany. Might see snow across N England and S Scotland. Busy week

Edited February 15, 2022 by stainesbloke

[alexisj9]

6 hours ago, Mark Smithy said:

GEM chart shows the vicious nature of this.

 

There is a chance though that the maximum intensity may occur out to sea with the low starting to fill as it transits the UK. Something to keep an eye on.

 

Would be best case, if it does intensify at all. What we don't need is the icon, storm in its infancy and intensifying over head, no thank you.

Edited February 15, 2022 by alexisj9

[alexisj9]

6 hours ago, Sky Full said:

Well, it depends on where you are….  From my perspective, the UKMO has downgraded overnight.  These two images both show maximum predicted gusts for 9:00am Friday, first one from last night, second one from this mornings run…..

    
 

The second chart also shows a definite shift south, so both statements could be said to be true.

These predictions are bound to change several more times before Friday but I’m hoping for more ‘downgrades’ so I can keep my roof on…..    

 

Yes true, but those further south than you, probably don't see it the same. Intact if anything some areas look stronger.

 

[damianslaw]

34 minutes ago, Snowyowl9 said:

NWly damaging direction once again like back in november..

But different track to that very unusual severe North gales..

Tough Oak trees uprooted from the north very strange..

Yes looks uncannily similar to Storm Arwen. It brought significant tree uprooting here.. very unusual due to northerly wind. We had snow then, this one could bring significant blizzards here.

[Nick L]

The yellow warnings for Friday are entirely insufficient. This could be the most dangerous storm to hit southern Britain since the Burns Day storm. 

[damianslaw]

Just now, Nick L said:

The yellow warnings for Friday are entirely insufficient. This could be the most dangerous storm to hit southern Britain since the Burns Day storm. 

Expect upgrade to amber tomorrow morning? Rather late though..

[warmintim]

1 minute ago, damianslaw said:

Expect upgrade to amber tomorrow morning? Rather late though..

Why is it late? Its only Tuesday. It damages the MET to go too early on warnings. I'd wait and see closer to the day.

[Jimmyh]

I think what is interesting it only takes one movement on the scale to move it into the Amber zone. This is why we are seeing slow updates from met. I expect it to go amber in the morning 

[alexisj9]

3 hours ago, Marcus_surfer said:

Remember it well... had a very short lived spell of 90mph+ winds which was very scary

St Jude was like that down here, it finally developed thankfully, just as it left. One or two gusts in the 90s and then gone.

[Weather-history]

2 minutes ago, Nick L said:

The yellow warnings for Friday are entirely insufficient. This could be the most dangerous storm to hit southern Britain since the Burns Day storm. 

Are the Met Office confident a storm is actually going to develop?

Just going off GFS 06z ensembles, they are quite a number that have next to nothing 

[TwisterGirl81]

9 minutes ago, Nick L said:

The yellow warnings for Friday are entirely insufficient. This could be the most dangerous storm to hit southern Britain since the Burns Day storm. 

If this storm is any stronger than some of the storms that hit the southwest in 2013/14 winter then i'm scared

[pinball wizard]

6 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Are the Met Office confident a storm is actually going to develop?

Just going off GFS 06z ensembles, they are quite a number that have next to nothing 

And thats why it's just a yellow warning at present, POTENTIAL high impacts but currently MODERATE probability. As soon as the probability is firmed up then warnings will be updated as necessary. The met office have played it as they should, alerted folk to the potential and advised people to stay tuned to forecasts. If they feel the need to upgrade warnings they will. The last thing they will want is to go overboard now on something that may not happen and consequently undermine trust in the warning system.

[Thunder and Lightning]

6 minutes ago, pinball wizard said:

And thats why it's just a yellow warning at present, POTENTIAL high impacts but currently MODERATE probability. As soon as the probability is firmed up then warnings will be updated as necessary. The met office have played it as they should, alerted folk to the potential and advised people to stay tuned to forecasts. If they feel the need to upgrade warnings they will. The last thing they will want is to go overboard now on something that may not happen and consequently undermine trust in the warning system.

 Probably are waiting to see if storm continues to trend south or see if signal grows or disappears etc, and then if trends are maintained, will probably issue a smaller amber tomorrow and then maybe extending it by Thursday. Just speculation though. 

[TheLastMinute]

Friday's expected winds have an associated storm surge risk that is being monitored by the Enviorment Agency. The EA forecast shows a risk along the entire west and south coasts, with a possible "severe" event along the Bristol Channel coast albeit a "very low" likelihood at present. I would expect these to be upgraded if and when the Met Office warning are. 

This could be a very significant event should the models be close to the eventual outcome.