Storm Eunice - 18th February

[Man With Beard]

A couple of changes I'm seeing this morning:

1. Impacts for the SW generally slightly moderated on this morning's runs: maximum gusts now projected at between 80-90mph in this area, with small chance of 95mph (we were thinking 100mph yesterday). The GFS has dropped the "black ink" which is good to see.

2. A very dangerous development, though, *may* be a sting jet through the Midlands into E Anglia. The Arome model is seeing this potentially bringing 100mph for a limited number of inland areas north of London. I'd imagine a sting jet is very hard to forecast but if verified according to the Arome, it would be very serious indeed. Worth noting the Arpege doesn't develop this feature until it is in E Anglia, although on the 18Z it was similar to this morning's Arome.

[Nick L]

13 minutes ago, SteveB said:

I must admit, the forecasts on the tele don't project the severity of what could happen tomorrow!

They present the weather as 100+mph aren't anything to be particularly concerned about!

I bet if this was in the USA there would be dedicated news sections warning people about the potential loss of life and damage this could cause!

Feels a bit like they are sleep walking us into this!

  

There HAVE to be red warnings this morning, but I fear the UKMO will wait until tonight.

[Man With Beard]

22 minutes ago, Dbarb said:

How reliable is the arome model when compared to others, coming from someone who lives under that?

Arome is a very important model in this set up, though I wouldn't take it in isolation; if the Arpege and Arome both see this feature during the rest of today, time to take action.

[SteveB]

1 minute ago, Nick L said:

There HAVE to be red warnings this morning, but I fear the UKMO will wait until tonight.

Isn't 10.30 they convene - should see warnings upgraded around lunchtime if things continue to stay as they are.

[Man With Beard]

9 minutes ago, Steve C said:

Can sting jets be modelled then? Interesting (and worrying for anyone under that!)

This is the first time I've seen a sting jet modelled so emphatically. I don't think we have a good example to follow (St Jude's day had a mini one?). It's going to be interesting (and scary) to see how it goes.

[Nick L]

1 minute ago, SteveB said:

Isn't 10.30 they convene - should see warnings upgraded around lunchtime if things continue to stay as they are.

Arwen they waited until 6 hours before the event.

[GSP]

1 minute ago, Man With Beard said:

Arome is a very important model in this set up, though I wouldn't take it in isolation; if the Arpege and Arome both see this feature during the rest of today, time to take action.

So with a little under 24 hours to go, can we still expect changes of 50 miles or so? What I am thinking if these very destructive winds now showing on charts from Midlands to EA, could these still move south or north from this predicted area? Thanks

[Steve C]

1 minute ago, Man With Beard said:

This is the first time I've seen a sting jet modelled so emphatically. I don't think we have a good example to follow (St Jude's day had a mini one?). It's going to be interesting (and scary) to see how it goes.

Yes, experienced the St Jude one. Short duration (10 minutes?) but intense and scary.

[Emz by the Thames]

1 minute ago, Nick L said:

There HAVE to be red warnings this morning, but I fear the UKMO will wait until tonight.

Hope not. The issue with this is that if they expect people to stay at home tomorrow, we really need to know by about 4pm today max  so that preparations to work from home, cancel work journeys on Friday etc, take work computers home etc the night before.

[Spikey M]

Everyone is just rolling their eyes at me when I talk about this. I have to drive a 70 mile round trip tomorrow afternoon / evening (in Essex) and I'm pretty worried. My manager doesn't want to know.

Edited February 17, 2022 by Spikey M

[fujita5]

Just now, Steve C said:

Yes, experienced the St Jude one. Short duration (10 minutes?) but intense and scary.

Yeah it was scary in Clacton. The gusts aren't "normal" in a sting jet, they're like explosions going off with sudden rhythmic blasts of wind caused by the high-momentum jet stream winds bouncing off the top of the stable boundary layer. Coupled with a weird milky blue sky it was eerie. Obviously nothing compared to '87 but I slept through the worst of that 

 

[Man With Beard]

7 minutes ago, Nick L said:

There HAVE to be red warnings this morning, but I fear the UKMO will wait until tonight.

I don't envy the Met Office this morning. Put out a red warning for a massive area, and if the storm isn't too destructive locally people will call it hype and ignore it next time. But if the sting jet develops 30 miles away, then people will be up in arms if the red warning hadn't gone out early.

5 minutes ago, GSP said:

So with a little under 24 hours to go, can we still expect changes of 50 miles or so? What I am thinking if these very destructive winds now showing on charts from Midlands to EA, could these still move south or north from this predicted area? Thanks

Oh yes, 50 miles is easily within margin for error right up until tomorrow.

[Ben Sainsbury]

11 minutes ago, Nick L said:

There HAVE to be red warnings this morning, but I fear the UKMO will wait until tonight.

My gut instinct is they will wait until tonight, especially if this "red warning area" is going to be quite large. But as long as the key message is sent out before people go to bed, I don't think it matters.

Edited February 17, 2022 by Ben Sainsbury

[CLH]

Pretty sure they’ll do red by 10. Line drawn across more or less where the Amber is, perhaps slightly smaller.

[Ian Price]

Once we see the red alerts, the media will go crazy! Then hopefully more people will take notice and not travel etc

[Spikey M]

4 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

I don't envy the Met Office this morning. Put out a red warning for a massive area, and if the storm isn't too destructive locally people will call it hype and ignore it next time. But if the sting jet develops 30 miles away, then people will be up in arms if the red warning hadn't gone out early.

This is why they need to promote their chart that shows risk / likelihood far more. It should be shown right alongside the warning on the forecasts.

[cowdog]

Just now, Ben Sainsbury said:

My gut instinct is they will wait until tonight, especially if this "red warning area" is going to be quite large. 

There probably is a clear case for a red warning for around the Bristol Channel (North Devon, Bristol, Swansea/Cardiff). Elsewhere not enough data, so any other red area you would assume they will wait till tonight before issuing.

[kold weather]

1 minute ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

My gut instinct is they will wait until tonight, especially if this "red warning area" is going to be quite large. 

I think for Northern parts of the SW and parts of S.Wales there is enough agreement of 80-90mph to justify a red now.

However beyond that I agree its still too early to have the confidence, especially with modest weakening of peak winds on the models vs 00z yesterday.

[alexisj9]

19 minutes ago, Theresnoway said:

Indeed, apart from referencing 1986

Lol oops.

[Man With Beard]

Just now, kold weather said:

I think for Northern parts of the SW and parts of S.Wales there is enough agreement of 80-90mph to justify a red now.

However beyond that I agree its still too early to have the confidence, especially with modest weakening of peak winds on the models vs 00z yesterday.

Will they put a red out for coastal 80-90mph in the SW? I'm not sure. It happens once every few years in the SW and I've never seen a red warning for it.

[Ben Sainsbury]

3 minutes ago, cowdog said:

There probably is a clear case for a red warning for around the Bristol Channel (North Devon, Bristol, Swansea/Cardiff). Elsewhere not enough data, so any other red area you would assume they will wait till tonight before issuing.

2 minutes ago, kold weather said:

I think for Northern parts of the SW and parts of S.Wales there is enough agreement of 80-90mph to justify a red now.

However beyond that I agree its still too early to have the confidence, especially with modest weakening of peak winds on the models vs 00z yesterday.

Regardless of my gut instinct re. the Met Office, I personally agree with both of you.

Edited February 17, 2022 by Ben Sainsbury

[ChannelThunder]

Very little downgrade overnight, then? Interesting, given that the models are now playing with a system that does now exist. 

[fujita5]

If more models come on board with the idea of the sting jet not developing until the storm reaches the Midlands, that's when the TV forecasts take a more serious tone. 100+mph winds in the middle of the country during daylight hours are extremely rare and could catch a lot of people off guard.

[alexisj9]

1 minute ago, Lance M said:

Very little downgrade overnight, then? Interesting, given that the models are now playing with a system that does now exist. 

I just hope we do not see upgrades now it's a bit older than it would have been at 0z. They'll see how it's developing.

[Mark Smithy]

49 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Seems like the track from most models has settled down and overall not much change this morning , but one thing I noted this though is the Arome develops a powerful narrow band of 100mph+ gusts across the northern home countries. To me this indicates a significant sting jet and high velocity winds being dragged down to the surface. 

Is this a sting jet exit on the GFS?