Storm Eunice - 18th February

[Marcus_surfer]

Just now, kev238 said:

I’m assuming there might be further red warnings to come in next hour or so

Yeah or late tonight. And I agree most of that warning is out at sea

[matty40s]

It's that kink in the pressure lines where it is doing it, as the NW winds are forced down and bite into the prevailing SW ones.

[smichling]

Glad there's finally a red warning out, although I expect it'll grow this afternoon. Worth remembering that the current amber warning is already at the highest severity, only slightly down on confidence so the reasoning for a red upgrade would NOT be due to models showing stronger winds, but due to an increase in confidence. From this, I would expect a red to be issued this afternoon/evening if the sting jet feature is still present in the 12Z's. I would think it would stretch from APPROXIMATELY Kidderminster through Milton Keynes to Ipswich. The met are looking for confidence now not strength. 

[kold weather]

7 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

What others areas did you think that the red warning would be issued?

I think its the only area where we can have really high confidence and where the winds are severe enough to justify it...at the moment.

We do have the risk of any sting jet coming through but there isn't huge agreement on that feature yet and so it remains a medium probability but high risk situation, a toughie for sure because if it doesn't develop the background winds in the region probably don't quite warrant a red atm on their own.

For example it is on the ARPEGE suite of models, but not even a hint of it on the UKV. ICON does develop it...over the north sea.

So you can see why they've not gone red just yet, too much of a chance it doesn't happen as currently predicted. They will want to see more data and agreement before pulling that trigger this early.

 

Edited February 17, 2022 by kold weather

[GSP]

9 minutes ago, Nick L said:

Simply inadequate red warning from the Met Office.

Perhaps they are thinking of a higher colour? Burgundy!

[Midlander]

BREAK: Cabinet Office Minister Michael Ellis to chair COBR this morning to discuss response to Storm Dudley and Storm Eunice

 

Edited February 17, 2022 by Midlander

[cobbett]

One of my old cornwall surfing haunts - but 30ft on Friday - no way !

[Wingman Blue]

3 minutes ago, smichling said:

Glad there's finally a red warning out, although I expect it'll grow this afternoon. Worth remembering that the current amber warning is already at the highest severity, only slightly down on confidence so the reasoning for a red upgrade would NOT be due to models showing stronger winds, but due to an increase in confidence. From this, I would expect a red to be issued this afternoon/evening if the sting jet feature is still present in the 12Z's. I would think it would stretch from APPROXIMATELY Kidderminster through Milton Keynes to Ipswich. The met are looking for confidence now not strength. 

Hmmm…. Right through here then….

[Delka]

12 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

AROME 06Z ... still showing a 100mph streak from the Midlands east. 90-95mph all the way to the E Anglia coast. Will this really verify? It's in the 1987 category for any areas affected, if it does.

this is close to or over my location and it’s quite scary, i have an hour walk to work between 12-1pm tomorrow, will i be able to even make it?

we had brief 70mph gusts for several minutes in a localised “tornado” in late october and that was manic here.. not sure I want to experience anything stronger or more prolonged then that!

[Nick L]

Are the Met Office seriously arguing that 90mph gusts in relatively sparsely populated coastal parts of Cornwall is significantly less disruptive than 80+mph gusts through London? Utterly baffling warnings.

[suffolkboy_]

14 minutes ago, Jake Lamparski said:

Warning updated, no red

Yes there is, for North Cornwall and South Wales, where risk is greatest. Further Red will only follow when/if there's more certainty regarding an sting jet feature etc.

[Yarmy]

1 minute ago, Nick L said:

Are the Met Office seriously arguing that 90mph gusts in relatively sparsely populated coastal parts of Cornwall is significantly less disruptive than 80+mph gusts through London? Utterly baffling warnings.

It really is bizarre. This should be all over the headlines, but - as it stands - people are going to take no notice of an amber warning.

[GSP]

3 minutes ago, Nick L said:

Are the Met Office seriously arguing that 90mph gusts in relatively sparsely populated coastal parts of Cornwall is significantly less disruptive than 80+mph gusts through London? Utterly baffling warnings.

Agree, all that technology, and like VAR and some people don’t know how to use it properly!

Edited February 17, 2022 by GSP

[Nick L]

Just now, Yarmy said:

It really is bizarre. This should be all over the headlines, but - as it stands - people are going to take no notice of an amber warning.

I remember last winter they issued an amber warning for 3cm of snow in East Anglia. So they are currently implying that that "event" is on a par with tomorrow.

[pinball wizard]

3 minutes ago, cobbett said:

One of my old cornwall surfing haunts - but 30ft on Friday - no way !

McNamara wouldn't even get out of bed for that

[Skullzrulerz]

Will the Red Warning include Southern Cornwall later on?

[Wingman Blue]

2 minutes ago, Nick L said:

Are the Met Office seriously arguing that 90mph gusts in relatively sparsely populated coastal parts of Cornwall is significantly less disruptive than 80+mph gusts through London? Utterly baffling warnings.

My sister was living in the City when the 87 hurricane occurred. It had been a hot day and someone had left one of the windows in the NatWest tower open and all night she watched boxes of computer paper(remember them?!) unloading into the night sky!

[Methuselah]

12 minutes ago, kev238 said:

I’m assuming there might be further red warnings to come in next hour or so

I think so, aye. Mostly amber for now, but going to red as confidence-levels increase. Not so much 'inadequate' as too early?

[Mark Smithy]

The current Red includes significant areas of population by the way, Bristol and Cardiff among them.

This is very nasty.

[CLH]

I'd imagine the met are doing it hour by hour. So, about 24 hours notice for the SW (peak storm 10 ish) and within the next few hours, do the same for the areas affected at 12 ish onwards. Not ideal but I can't see that they won't do a red warning.

 

Just now, Mark Smithy said:

The current Red includes significant areas of population by the way, Bristol and Cardiff among them.

This is very nasty.

It also includes significant high tides that mirror the peak of the winds

[Sainsbo]

The ensemble spread for inland areas in the south is currently ~65-80 mph. Red warnings are reserved for events that are all but certain. When 65mph (which would not warrant a red) is still within the realm of uncertainty, it's pretty understandable they haven't bumped it up IMO.  The amber warning is as high as it can go on severity. I guess they just need to see what inland gust values the models converge to later today.

Edited February 17, 2022 by Sainsbo

[MKN]

5 minutes ago, Nick L said:

Are the Met Office seriously arguing that 90mph gusts in relatively sparsely populated coastal parts of Cornwall is significantly less disruptive than 80+mph gusts through London? Utterly baffling warnings.

Agree entirely, The BBC were ramping up the dangers at least. 

[smichling]

5 minutes ago, Wingman Blue said:

Hmmm…. Right through here then….

Don’t take my very vague forecast as gospel though! in all seriousness use the met office not what I or someone says here, however much we might want to be a pro forecaster we aren’t! 

[Kasim Awan]

3 minutes ago, Nick L said:

I remember last winter they issued an amber warning for 3cm of snow in East Anglia. So they are currently implying that that "event" is on a par with tomorrow.

I agree the warning system is overcomplicated so common sense flies out the window.

[Mark Smithy]

With regards to the media, it doesn't help when tabloids follow forecasts from Sybil Trelawney and lead with headlines about 1500 mile snow fronts.

In other words, as ever, the media are partly to blame for crying wolf.

Then when a proper forecasting organisation (The Met Office) tells people to stay indoors everyone is by then weary.