Storm Eunice - 18th February

[DaveL]

11 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

Thank goodness that's over. As a lifelong weather nut, I really found today and the build up a bit of a stressful experience.... probably scar tissue from 1987!

Lots of talk about where this sits in the pantheon of great UK storms. I would have 87 in first place, 90 in second, with today level pegging with the St Jude storm. What makes today more notable for me is the distribution of high winds around the southern UK, below are the weather stations showing significant gusts.

> 80mph - 10 

> 75mph - 23

> 70mph - 40

> 65mph - 80

That's 80 station's recording gusts of 65mph or over... impressive!

Added to this, we also have the highest gust recorded in England at 122mph (or maybe 125?).

Finally, unfortunately we also have had loss of life in Ireland, UK and the Netherlands. Awful news for those involved.

For these reasons, I would say this will live long in the memory. 

One other point, despite some ill feeling towards the Met Office on here, I think they did a pretty good job overall, but I think they're hamstrung by the current warning system. An overhaul should be considered as part of the post mortem.

There's an interesting description of the 1987 Great Storm on the Met Office site:

The Great Storm of 1987

WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

---

A powerful storm ravaged many parts of the UK in the middle of October 1987.

A couple of quotes from it may be of interest:

Quote

In the Beaufort scale of wind force, Hurricane Force (Force 12) is defined as a wind of 64 knots or more, sustained over a period of at least 10 minutes. Gusts, which are comparatively short-lived (but cause a lot of destruction) are not taken into account. By this definition, Hurricane Force winds occurred locally but were not widespread.

Quote

 

The strongest gust over the UK was 100 knots at Shoreham on the Sussex coast at 3.10 am, and gusts of more than 90 knots were recorded at several other coastal locations.

Even well inland, gusts exceeded 80 knots. The London Weather Centre recorded 82 knots at 2.50 am, and 86 knots was recorded at Gatwick Airport at 4.30 am (the authorities closed the airport).

 

All the above in knots so 94 mph in central London! Another report I have seen mentions a 10 minute mean wind speed of hurricane force at the old coastcuard station at Lee-on-the-Solent, and one in East Anglia (I forget which station). But I'd say 1987 was an order of magnitude greater than anything else we've seen since and it makes me wonder if Needles Old Battery (122 mph gust today) was operating then, or if the anemometer survived if it was.

[Man With Beard]

8 minutes ago, SnowBear said:

I note many are saying there is a need for an overhaul of the Met Office warning system. 

What and how do people think this needs to change?

Is it the system or perhaps the communication of that system to the public? 

What system would you use? 

(Mods, if you feels this warrants a separate thread, please do split this post off into a new one.) 

I think the prospect that amber could become red didn't come across properly yesterday. I liked the idea of the "red watch", a bit like in the USA with hurricane watches. It would get us prepared without it being all or nothing.

2 minutes ago, DaveL said:

There's an interesting description of the 1987 Great Storm on the Met Office site:

The Great Storm of 1987

WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

---

A powerful storm ravaged many parts of the UK in the middle of October 1987.

A couple of quotes from it may be of interest:

All the above in knots so 94 mph in central London! Another report I have seen mentions a 10 minute mean wind speed of hurricane force at the old coastcuard station at Lee-on-the-Solent, and one in East Anglia (I forget which station). But I'd say 1987 was an order of magnitude greater than anything else we've seen since and it makes me wonder if Needles Old Battery (122 mph gust today) was operating then, or if the anemometer survived if it was.

I discovered today The Needles has only been there since 1996. Goodness knows what it would have recorded in 1987, 150mph or something?

[Nick L]

4 minutes ago, SnowBear said:

I note many are saying there is a need for an overhaul of the Met Office warning system. 

What and how do people think this needs to change?

Is it the system or perhaps the communication of that system to the public? 

What system would you use? 

(Mods, if you feels this warrants a separate thread, please do split this post off into a new one.) 

My issue with how it was handled is that the entire point of the warning system seems to have been missed in this event. The point of the warning system is to enable the public, infrastructure and businesses to adequately prepare for an event, I think we can all agree on that one. Issuing a red warning at 4am for an event starting that very morning meant that there was no time for anyone to prepare, little time for schools to announce closures, etc. so it was essentially useless.

If models had suddenly ramped up winds overnight for the storm the next day, we would all have forgiven the red warning being issued so late. But it wasn't the case. All models consistently had 70mph gusts across swathes of southern Britain, including London, for at least 5 days. We made the unusual decision here to go for the maximum warning threshold 5 days out for various transport and infrastructure in our forecasts, such was the consistency. Now, I completely get that the Met Office can't just throw out a red warning with 5 days to go, as it would devalue the impact and could backfire. But it was still a yellow warning just 48 hours before the event! 

Then there's the potential impacts when you bear in mind the areas it's hitting. When the initial red warning was issued, it was for gusts of 80mph gusts in south Wales and Cornwall. Yes, it includes some major population centres. However, they can't seriously sit there and say that 70+ gusts in London is a whole warning colour lower than 80mph in the SW. If anything, I would argue it as a greater impact. And if they were happy with the model output for 80mph in the SW, then I don't see why they would discount slightly lower wind speeds elsewhere.

These questions needs to be asked but I doubt they will be answered. The Met Office will count it as a job well done because they rightly issued a red warning. The upshot is that there was no need to delay the "second" red warning (I don't like it being labelled as a second warning, it was basically the area which should have been warned in the first place), in my opinion.

[Cheshire Freeze]

A very windy day but nothing spectacular here. Probably on par with Arwen. Kyril in Jan 2007 was a level up.

[Chris74]

Probably the worst wind's we've had here on the Isle of sheppey North Kent since 1987 Just good job the wind wasn't on shore here. A lucky escape for these lorry drivers never seen lorries blown over on our island roads before. 

[moorlander]

2 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

I think the prospect that amber could become red didn't come across properly yesterday. I liked the idea of the "red watch", a bit like in the USA with hurricane watches. It would get us prepared without it being all or nothing.

when i used to work at sea doing oceanography the shipping forcast was always taken note of, it came with the job as none of us took the power of mother nature for granted.

However most folks these days dont even bother to look at the sky anymore, too wrapped up with that thing in their hand (no pun intended)

[matty40s]

6 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

A very windy day but nothing spectacular here. Probably on par with Arwen. Kyril in Jan 2007 was a level up.

It was never expected to be spectacular up that end of the Midlands...the only risk was the possible stingjet as the southerly and westerly flowing winds round the low were forced down by the jet stream which appears not to have happened.

[SnowBear]

11 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

I think the prospect that amber could become red didn't come across properly yesterday. I liked the idea of the "red watch", a bit like in the USA with hurricane watches. It would get us prepared without it being all or nothing

I like this idea, a watch preceding a full alert. 

[Cheshire Freeze]

2 minutes ago, matty40s said:

It was never expected to be spectacular up that end of the Midlands...the only risk was the possible stingjet as the southerly and westerly flowing winds round the low were forced down by the jet stream which appears not to have happened.

You’re correct, however a couple of days ago some hi res models were putting 90mph down the Cheshire gap.

[DaveL]

34 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

I think the prospect that amber could become red didn't come across properly yesterday. I liked the idea of the "red watch", a bit like in the USA with hurricane watches. It would get us prepared without it being all or nothing.

Exactly this. ^ It's what I said to my daughter on Thursday evening, that the Met Office was coming under pressure to upgrade to Red down here and to check for it as soon as she woke up. She did, saw the Red, the kids were over the moon - no school lol. But the Met Office could and should have said that too on Thursday evening - Amber Warning, Red Watch.

Quote

I discovered today The Needles has only been there since 1996. Goodness knows what it would have recorded in 1987, 150mph or something?

I guessed as much, thanks! So yeah, well over 122 mph had it been there in 1987, I reckon.

[Thickmike]

Thankyou to all the knowledgeable weather experts who have explained today's happenings. Thank you to all those who have reported what is happening to them. Thank you for all the invaluable links to various sources of information even if some of them at least still seem like pretty pictures and not a lot more - but I am learning. It's a shame that a few who seemed to feel the need to either rubbish the Met Office or other people posting tried to pretend it was just a bit of a breeze. It obviously wasn't 1987 over again - from all that i can learn that was a very special event. But it was a significant storm that disrupted peoples everyday lives, caused significant damage, and sadly cost a small number of irreplaceable lives. This site is excellent. We should do what we can to keep it that way. And actually I feel quite whacked after following this storm for most of the past 48 hours so time for down time. Thank you again.

[*Stormforce~beka*]

8 hours ago, stripeyfox said:

Everyone on here today

 

 

Hahhahhaa this is quality!! Where was this??

[leedsnowfan]

Just a little point......the tops speeds of 115mph recorded in 1987....was just before the recording equipment got blown away. So likely higher....poss 120/125/130mph

[*Stormforce~beka*]

6 hours ago, beckyonsea said:

Power just restored here in Burnham On Sea. Five out of eight fences gone in my row of terraces and lots of trees down. Very thankful this morning missed high tide! 

Power just restored here in Burnham On Sea. Five out of eight fences gone in my row of terraces and lots of trees down. Very thankful this morning missed high tide! 

How long was your power out for?

[*Stormforce~beka*]

4 hours ago, Dbarb said:

Whole village has been without power for over 9 hours 

Is it back yet? Poor you what a nightmare!!

[Retron]

6 hours ago, Chris74 said:

Probably the worst wind's we've had here on the Isle of sheppey North Kent since 1987 Just good job the wind wasn't on shore here. A lucky escape for these lorry drivers never seen lorries blown over on our island roads before.

I'd say since 2000 - as that managed to blow the verandah off my shed! The winds seemed stronger then too, but not massively so compared to the 12-1PM period yesterday.

Cyclone Oratia - Wikipedia

EN.WIKIPEDIA.ORG

(1990 was also a bit blowy, of course, but nothing holds a candle to 1987. I'll never forget that sheer terror I felt as the entire upstairs of my house vibrated in the wind!)

As for the lorries, I'm not aware of any blowing over before either... both of those were empty and both blew over on that bridge over the railway line on the Brielle Way. The trees and other damage though (such as a wall being knocked over and cladding ripped of a house in the next road to me) aren't too unusual, as it's been the first time we've had such a blow for over 20 years... there's a lot of ageing / weakened stuff that was primed to break!

Edited February 19, 2022 by Retron

[Eagle Eye]

Power is still off at home and mobile data was gone as well,bit's at these times that I wish I had a battery powered radio to listen to. The jiving fence is gone as well.

Models have been pretty decent and kudos to the met office for doing well as well with the current system but I think that needs to be replaced. The news stations were all over this storm seemingly taking the warnings seriously and then doing the anti British news thing and said that the storm wasn't up to much and yet look at what we saw, poor journalism on their part. The hanger roof coming off seems eerily similar to something that I referenced earlier that caused a sudden upturn in meteorological investment. When a hanger roof was ripped off and many planes were tossed around like feathers in a tornado and the military invested in their meteorologists and finally listened to them and backed them. I was constantly messaging people I knew all day about the storm and have for the past half a week or so and I'm glad that I got them to finally listen to me. The public constantly moans about the met office and yet there's no help for then and they are doing a brilliant job with the tools available to them. It is clear, that something needs to change but not the met office, they just need some help.

[ModestMention]

I may have missed this up thread, but did anyone else have salty/dusty marks left on their windows, even a long way inland? 

[CLH]

4 minutes ago, ModestMention said:

I may have missed this up thread, but did anyone else have salty/dusty marks left on their windows, even a long way inland? 

Yes. Noticed that too. Windows are filthy 

[Cwmbran Eira]

1 minute ago, CLH said:

Yes. Noticed that too. Windows are filthy 

Same here, very dirty/dusty windows and cars

[seb]

9 hours ago, SnowBear said:

I note many are saying there is a need for an overhaul of the Met Office warning system. 

What and how do people think this needs to change?

Is it the system or perhaps the communication of that system to the public? 

What system would you use? 

(Mods, if you feels this warrants a separate thread, please do split this post off into a new one.) 

Simplify it.

Instead of using amber where confidence is low but the severity/impact is high a “red weather watch” is issued. On the map the areas affected are shown with a light red or red hashed line.

The colours are fine as they are, the confusing part is that the next lower level is issued where confidence is too low to go for the appropriate colour.

A great example is thunderstorms. How many times have we had yellow warnings which state storms are likely to be severe, they then turn out to be severe but the warning itself stays yellow because “it is difficult to predict where storms occur”. 
 

If an amber watch is issued two days in advance people know to be aware, once the areas affected and confidence are sufficiently high then an amber warning is issued at short notice.

Obviously this is similar to the US but also a number of European countries and I think it works better and is much easier to understand.

 

 

Edited February 19, 2022 by seb

[khodds]

29 minutes ago, Cwmbran Eira said:

Same here, very dirty/dusty windows and cars

Yep me too. Car windows were filthy when I eventually went out and just thought my house windows were in need of a clean

[Methuselah]

9 hours ago, Notty said:

Whatever the warning system, they are damned if they do and damned if they don’t. C’est la vie.

That won't deter the Hindsight Brigade from their 'work'?

[beckyonsea]

We had no power from 11.45am to 6pm and no mobile signal either. Landline still worked. And yes about the windows - I had mine cleaned on Tuesday and they are filthy now. Fair play to Western power for getting us back up and running so quickly. The worst damage in my locality was the neighbour who left an upstairs window slightly open which blew open and off its hinges so while they were at work they had a typhoon blasting around the house. Another reason why stay at home orders are useful. We couldn't get in to shut it for them. 

As events like this happen more regularly with climate change I think it shows how we should build more ties within our communities and have plans to support each other. 

[ANYWEATHER]

1 hour ago, ModestMention said:

I may have missed this up thread, but did anyone else have salty/dusty marks left on their windows, even a long way inland? 

Yes noticed this over many many years. The fact that I have a window cleaning business I've noticed it even more. I live in Worcestershire so miles away from the sea. But when the stormy periods come the wind picks up the sea spray and carries it well inland, it may sound stupid, but I've noticed the grime on the windows is like a salty texture. So yes if sand from the Sahara can make it too the UK,  so I don't see why sea salt cant make it way inland from the sea courtesy of very strong high level winds