May 2022 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[damianslaw]

With nothing particularly warm on the horizon for the rest of the month, indeed looks a little below average, it looks like going down as one of those very warm months without any notable warmth for most, apart from locally on 17th in SE parts. An odd occurance for May which as I said with such CET values normally delivers widespread notable warmth. It won't be remembered temp wise.

[Summer Sun]

13.6c to the 24th

2.7c above the 61 to 90 average
2.2c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 13.6c on the 19th, 20th, 21st, 22nd, 23rd & 24th
Current low this month 10.9c on the 1st

[The PIT]

No change at Sunny Sheffield still at 13.6C +2.2C above normal. Rainfall unchanged at 28.4mm 47.7% of the monthly average.

Temperatures look to be set near to slightly above average until the end of the month according to the local forecast if they get it right for once so a slight downward pressure. However they tend to under do the temperatures generally.

So likely ending spot is 13.4C to 13.8C so a rather warm dry month on the cards.

Edited May 25, 2022 by The PIT

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffeild Still at 13.6C +2.2C above normal. Rainfall 28.9mm 48.5% of the monthly average.

Now will a sudden swing to cooler weather Sunny sheffield looks set to finish between 13.1C and 13.4C. So 3rd or 4th warmest on record for us.

Edited May 26, 2022 by The PIT

[Summer Sun]

13.6c to the 25th

2.6c above the 61 to 90 average
2.2c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 13.6c on the 19th, 20th, 21st, 22nd, 23rd, 24th & 25th
Current low this month 10.9c on the 1st

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffeild still stalled at 13.6C +2.1C above normal. Rainfall up to 31.5mm 52.9% of the monthly average.

Present projectiosn for Sunny Sheffield are finishing between 13.2C and 13.4C.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 13.5C +2.1C above normal, Rainfall 31.5mm 52.9% of the monthly average.

Looking to finish between 13.2C and 13.4C

Edited May 28, 2022 by The PIT

[Dancerwithwings]

It’s looking like my 12.1c guess will be a whole degree out then I even up’t it from my first guess at 11.6c....Northern blocking went right out of the window as suggested at the end of April for May....for all that went for 13c +

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 13.5C +1.8C above normal. Rainfall unchanged.

Looking like an end point of 13.2C to 13.4C for us. 

[Summer Sun]

Hadley still stuck on 13.6c to the 25th

[Summer Sun]

Hadley remains stuck to the 25th

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 13.4C +1.6C above normal. Rainfall unchanged as the dry weather continues

[feb1991blizzard]

3 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

Hadley remains stuck to the 25th

Don't know if this is Hadley or Manley but its on 13.07.

Metcheck.com - UK CET - Central England Temperature - Updated Every 30 Minutes

WWW.METCHECK.COM

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Metcheck.com - UK CET - Central England Temperature - Updated Every 30 Minutes

 

[Dancerwithwings]

21 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Don't know if this is Hadley or Manley but its on 13.07.

Metcheck.com - UK CET - Central England Temperature - Updated Every 30 Minutes

WWW.METCHECK.COM

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Metcheck.com - UK CET - Central England Temperature - Updated Every 30 Minutes

 

I’m presuming the N/W tracker must use Hadley ....it’s identical to the stuck info that’s on offer ATM 

UK temperature tracker - CET Watch, Hourly Updates - Netweather.tv

WWW.NETWEATHER.TV

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Follow the latest CET (Central England Temperature) this month

 

Edited May 30, 2022 by Dancerwithwings

[richie3846]

The one that got stuck is now 404

[Roger J Smith]

I think the Metcheck CET is an in-house product that does not come out at official numbers necessarily. 

As I track mean temperatures in Ireland daily, I can say that the mean has more or less stalled out there since the 25th or so anyway, and probably the CET is still around 13.6 now. The main question is, will there be systems of end-of-month adjustment of numbers that we do see now, like before, or will the new system (v2.0) just go into the books as-is without adjustments. I don't know, and even before this stall, I was getting my own personal stall while Summer Sun was still able to see updated numbers, not sure what causes that, and I did clean my cache and reboot. 

With this somewhat cooler turn I think the final number might be around 13.4 or so, but that's assuming we have been seeing numbers they will be keeping in the data base. If they are still fiddling with the data base after this rollout, I hope they don't change values before 1st of May as I have all those downloaded and compared to legacy values (you may have seen my thread about the changes). 

Basically, what I found was that the legacy numbers still exist to 1853, then they undergo various changes that mostly cancel each other out in terms of annual averages but can be as large as several degrees on a few odd days here and there. Records have changed at a pace similar to 10% transferred year to year and another 10% where the old record either lost a tied partner or gained a new one. That seems to apply to both record highs and lows. It's a bit more complicated than just a blanket adjustment to various periods. The tendency was to drop values slightly from legacy to v2.0 from about 1974 to 2004, then around 2005 they started adjusting them up slightly more often than not, but that trend has faded out over the past decade, so 2005 to 2011 tended to get the biggest boosts. Even so, most of the records many of us happen to know are still there, sometimes adjusted by 0.1 or so. The warmest June mean daily is now 19th June 2005 (got quite a boost to 23.2) rather than 3rd June 1947 (went slightly down from 23.0 to 22.9). The warmest all-time was formerly a tie at 25.2 (29 July 1948 and 25 July 2019) but now 25 July 2019 is alone at 25.3, 12 Aug 2020 is up to 25.2 and 29 July 1948 is third at 25.1. Little changes like that are fairly common, but I found one or two much larger changes creating new records here and there. 

We just won't know what the new regime will be for contest purposes until we go through this end of month and track what they do.  

[Earthshine]

So CET is currently at 13.4°C, wonder if we will that will be the final value.  Warmest since 2008 I believe?

[Don]

46 minutes ago, Earthshine said:

So CET is currently at 13.4°C, wonder if we will that will be the final value.  Warmest since 2008 I believe?

Nope, I reckon it will be bang on 13.0C 

[Frigid]

3 hours ago, Don said:

Nope, I reckon it will be bang on 13.0C 

You could be correct. CET standing at 13.1C as of the 30th. A possible reduction perhaps after today. 

Met Office Hadley Centre Central England Temperature Data Download

WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

The old link seems to be broken. I suppose this is where all the recordings will take place

Edited May 31, 2022 by Frigid

[Don]

26 minutes ago, Frigid said:

You could be correct. CET standing at 13.1C as of the 30th. A possible reduction perhaps after today. 

Met Office Hadley Centre Central England Temperature Data Download

WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

The old link seems to be broken. I suppose this is where all the recordings will take place

My earlier comment was tongue in cheek as I was one of those who went for a CET guess of 13.0C for May.  However, now the Metoffice have confirmed the CET is at 13.1C, it's going to be close!

Edited May 31, 2022 by Don

[Relativistic]

Re adjustments at month's end, I notice now that they no longer have separate data for 'daily data to date' and 'daily data to date (estimated values)', which suggests the current tracker is final.

[feb1991blizzard]

13.1 to 30th - Anomaly 2.0.

[damianslaw]

A cooler end to May has put pay to a notably very mild one, but still appreciably mild will be the end result. Question is whether we fall into the 12s or stay at 13 or 13.1 degrees. Today is a cool one, so I can't see 13.1 being final figure, would not be surprised to see it finish as low as 12.7 degrees factoring in the downward adjustments.

Yet another much milder than average CET month without it ever being especially very warm. The figure masks what has been quite an average month rainfall and sunshine wise, indeed some places may end up slightly wetter and slightly duller than average, so despite the warm CET not a particularly great May has to be said. 

Note 2020 only produced 12.5 degrees, and I would rank it a much better month than this one, the cooler nights had an effect. 2017 and 2018 look like being slightly warmer, and again I wouldn't rank this month anywhere near them, especially 2018. 2016 was 12.5 degrees as well. Just like April, we are having a run of very mild May's recently.

Edited May 31, 2022 by damianslaw

[Earthshine]

14 hours ago, damianslaw said:

A cooler end to May has put pay to a notably very mild one, but still appreciably mild will be the end result. Question is whether we fall into the 12s or stay at 13 or 13.1 degrees. Today is a cool one, so I can't see 13.1 being final figure, would not be surprised to see it finish as low as 12.7 degrees factoring in the downward adjustments.

Yet another much milder than average CET month without it ever being especially very warm. The figure masks what has been quite an average month rainfall and sunshine wise, indeed some places may end up slightly wetter and slightly duller than average, so despite the warm CET not a particularly great May has to be said. 

Note 2020 only produced 12.5 degrees, and I would rank it a much better month than this one, the cooler nights had an effect. 2017 and 2018 look like being slightly warmer, and again I wouldn't rank this month anywhere near them, especially 2018. 2016 was 12.5 degrees as well. Just like April, we are having a run of very mild May's recently.

Are downward adjustments still a thing with the current CET?

[Roger J Smith]

EWP estimate 57 mm (based on reported 53.4 to 30th and est 3-4 mm for 31st). Will report on preliminary scoring tomorrow with final tracker value.

As to CET question, we won't know until we observe day by day what they do this month. It may start to resemble what happens with EWP, which is, you get a final tracker value early 2nd, then by the 5th of each month, the tables are updated with final values, but those can be changed slightly over the coming three months. The EWP system has changed slightly this month too, the tracker now shows a value to one decimal place, it used to be just a round number. So I am watching that to see if there will be an adjustment from tomorrow's final tracker value to some later value that is adjusted. 

Or they may just abandon preliminary numbers and post final numbers one time, when that might be, uncertain. We just don't know.