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May 2022 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests


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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

    CET May averages and other statistics

    ___ table includes all CET values for the period 1981 to 2021 ... bold type, warmest third, italics middle third, underlined, coolest third of years ___

     

    21.2 ... warmest daily mean (29th, 1780)

    20.0 ... 15th (1833) earliest 20.0 CET day.

    15.1 ... (1833)
    13.9 ... (1848)
    13.8 ... (1758, 1788)
    13.7 ... (1808)
    13.6 ... (1727, 1992)

    13.5 ... (1784, 1868, 1919, 1947)

    13.4 ... 2008 (tied with 1726, 1952)

    13.2 ... 2017, 2018

    13.1 ... 1998

    13.0 ... 1989

    12.9 ... 1999

    12.6 ... 1990, 2001

    12.5 ... 2016, 2020

    12.3 ... 2006

    12.2 ... 2011, 2014

    12.1 ... 2000, 2003, 2004, 2009 

    12.0 ... ... ... highest 30-year average (1989-2018)

    11.9 ... 1991-2020 (& 1992-2021) averages and 2001-2021 average and 1988, 2007 

    11.8 ... 2002

    11.7 ... 1981-2010 average and 2012

    11.6 ... 1982, 1995

    11.5 ... 1997

    11.4 ... 1993, 2005 .. 1901-2000 average

    11.3 ... 1971-2000 average, 1701-1800 average

    11.2 ... 1981 ... 1961-1990 average, 1659-2021 average of all data (11.23)

    11.1 ... 19862019 ... 1801-1900 average

    10.9 ... 1985

    10.8 ... 19912015

    10.7 ... 19942010 ... 1659-1700 average

    10.6 ... ... ... lowest 30-year average (1687-1716, to 1690-1719) _ also 10.65 (1873-1902)*

    10.4 ... 2013

    10.3 ... 1983

    10.1 ... 19872021

      9.9 ... 1984

      9.1 ... 1996 tied 13th coldest with two other years, the coldest in recent years)

      8.9 ... 1879, 1885, 1902 tied 5th coldest

      8.8 ... 1855 was 4th coldest

      8.7 ... 1817 was 3rd coldest

      8.6 ... 1740 was 2nd coldest

      8.5 ... 1698 was coldest May

     

    Extreme cold

     3.5 .... mean for 3-5 May, 1877

     2.9 .... coldest daily mean (8th, 1861)

    _____________________________________

    The secondary minimum came after two centuries of warmer Mays with 11.61 1820-49 the peak

    Post your May CET forecasts before end of day Saturday 30th of April to avoid time penalty, or in first three days of May with increasing late penalties.

    ______________________________________

     

    England and Wales precip (EWP) contest 

    Note: this is verified against the Hadley version of EWP (1766 to present),  

    The contest asks you to predict the average England and Wales precip in mm. These are the extreme values and recent averages. 

     

    151.8 ___ max 1766-2021 (in 1773)

    142.4 ___ second wettest in 1782 

    140.7 ___ third wettest in 1967

    122.7 ___ maximum 1981-2021 (2021) _ 118.4 in 2007 _ 115.2 in 1983

     66.3 ___ average 1992-2021

     64.2 ___ average 1766-2021 (all data)

     63.6 ___ average 1981-2010

     62.7 ___ average 1991-2020

     10.3 ___ minimum 1981-2021 (in 2020) _  (13.7 (1991) previous)

     07.9 ___ (min 1766-2021) in 1844 

     ________________________________________________________________

    Recent ... 2021 _122.7 mm ... 2020 _ 10.3 mm ...  2019 _ 46.0 mm ...  2018 _ 51.9 mm ...  2017 _ 65.0 mm ...  2016 _ 61.7 mm ...

    ... 2015 _ 86.6 mm ...  2014 _ 102.8 mm ...  2013 _ 73.9 mm ...  2012 _ 57.4 mm ...  2011 _ 46.5 mm ...  2010 _ 38.3 mm ... ... 

    Enter the EWP contest in the same post as your CET temperature forecast. Scores are by rank order out of 10.0, 0.3 penalties per day late. Same deadlines apply as CET contest. 

     

    ... Good luck in both contests ... 

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)

    I’ll be the first ....11.6c & 49mm cheers

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Ice days, clear skies, blizzards. Summer: cool and dry
  • Location: Manchester

    May will see a pattern change I reckon, with bouts of rain and cooler days. 

    11.3c and 85mm rain 

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    Posted
  • Location: Trowbridge, Wilts
  • Weather Preferences: hot summers; frigid winters; golden fall; bright spring
  • Location: Trowbridge, Wilts

    Hi, 13C and 63.4mm for my guesses please.

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    Posted
  • Location: Comrie, Perthshire, Bonnie Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: bright & frosty/snowy; summer: hot and sunny.
  • Location: Comrie, Perthshire, Bonnie Scotland

    12.6°C and 77.4mm for me please. 

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    Posted
  • Location: London
  • Location: London

    Going for a cool first half, with many dull and cloudy days with longer spells of rain. 
     

    Second half will see some proper summer warmth with a few days touching or exceeding 25c. Will be still be a dry heat with hot sunshine and a slight breeze, but gradually turning more humid and muggy with overnight storms during the last weekend of the month.

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    Posted
  • Location: Birmingham (Solihull), West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Birmingham (Solihull), West Midlands

    Bang on 12*C please and 35mm of rainfall. Cheers.

    Just get a feeling it’ll be quite a dry month overall.

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      I see the majority of May seeing a total change from the current dry weather with a protracted run of Lows, some rattling through quickly, others lingering and parked up over the North Sea sending a prolonged feed of rain and chill. However, the last 10 days or so will see a real warm spell with temperatures moving from the 10-15.C highs most of the month will be stuck on to something in the high 20.Cs. Due to a lack of cold nights the CET will come out surprisingly warm at 13.4.C but with a wet 126mm.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    Going for 11.8C and 51mm of rain.

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    Posted
  • Location: binley, 83 metres asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes, especially heavy snow.
  • Location: binley, 83 metres asl.

    11.1c and 111mm please.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and dry, thunderstorms, mild temps (13-22°C).
  • Location: Sheffield

    Despite some crap on the models at the moment, it will be the hottest May on record.

    15.5°C, 50mm of rain (wet due to thunderstorms).

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    Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

    12.9c & 56mm please.

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    Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
    On 20/04/2022 at 07:41, Dancerwithwings said:

    I’ll be the first ....11.6c & 49mm cheers

    Can I up my guess to 12.1c but the 49mm will stay the same 

    With thanks, DWW

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    13C and 50mm please, Roger.

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    Posted
  • Location: BIRMINGHAM B6 ASTON WM. About 112MASL 367.36FT
  • Weather Preferences: SNOWY WINTERS AVRAGE SPRING HOT SUMMERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS.
  • Location: BIRMINGHAM B6 ASTON WM. About 112MASL 367.36FT

    For May I'm going 10.3C and 51MM rain.  Thank You.

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    Posted
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl

    11.4c and 75mm please.

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

    13.1c and 53mm please

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    Posted
  • Location: East coast side of the Yorkshire Wolds, 66m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Storms, and plenty of warm sunny days!
  • Location: East coast side of the Yorkshire Wolds, 66m ASL

    12.1c and 58mm please,

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