Storms and Convective discussion - 1st May 2022 onwards

[ChannelThunder]

Off to bed to top up on sleep ahead of a late night tomorrow. 

...well, that's the plan, anyway!

[StormLoser]

The Cherbourg peninsula has some very heavy rain and solid lightning. Very bright flashes on the web cams - remind me of positive CG they are so solitary and intense.

The storm system there has grown to a bit of a monster. It will be interesting to see what happens to it...   (like, 40 degrees left, scoot across Channel and arrive in Reigate?   ).

[Supacell]

Estofex has a Lvl1 over south-eastern England for tomorrow. More relating to the events later on in the day.

European Storm Forecast Experiment - ESTOFEX

WWW.ESTOFEX.ORG

 

Edited June 3, 2022 by Supacell

[sheikhy]

21 minutes ago, Supacell said:

Estofex has a Lvl1 over south-eastern England for tomorrow. More relating to the events later on in the day.

European Storm Forecast Experiment - ESTOFEX

WWW.ESTOFEX.ORG

 

Holy crap that level 1 nearly reaches me here in leicester!!!

[TwisterGirl81]

Hoping to wake up to a full water butt, hope it’s not an East Devon/Dorset event again

[sendandreturn]

We are escaping the dregs of Hurricane Agatha bringing a foot of rain to the keys, thankfully minimal lightning at MIA

[alexisj9]

2 hours ago, TN26 said:

Sure it wasn't 2014? Best plume I've seen.

 

I think he talking about the storm that happened on June the 6th, in  200 I think it was 6, when a thundery line of storms stalled over southern England for the night, and then moved north, this one seems to look similar but less intense. We'll see, come tomorrow night I guess.

[SenlacJack]

Am I the only person sitting in the garden at this unearthly hour hoping the storms will reach us here on the South Coast ?

[Sprites]

38 minutes ago, SenlacJack said:

Am I the only person sitting in the garden at this unearthly hour hoping the storms will reach us here on the South Coast ?

I can't tell from here, have a look over the fence.

Edited June 4, 2022 by Sprites

[Eagle Eye]

3 hours ago, alexisj9 said:

I think he talking about the storm that happened on June the 6th, in  200 I think it was 6, when a thundery line of storms stalled over southern England for the night, and then moved north, this one seems to look similar but less intense. We'll see, come tomorrow night I guess.

Well it certainly wasn't 2006 seeing as I wasn't alive then  but yes it was that sort of a system and was one of either 2014,2015 or 2016. In the meantime, ignore why I'm up at quarter past 4 listening to the sound of Convective wind gusts and relaxing.

[Stormhog]

CG's visible on the Brighton webcam:

【LIVE】 Webcam Brighton Pier | SkylineWebcams

WWW.SKYLINEWEBCAMS.COM

---

Watch our Brighton webcam overlooking the Brighton Pier! Follow the city's major events and explore our free HD cams in the UK.

 

[ChannelThunder]

A very interesting outlook from Dan:

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2022-06-04

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Feeling that those french storms and storms over the channel are going to really reduce the severity of what we end up with here - but I’m liking that storms will be slow moving (if they occur).

I’m certainly not anticipating anything but will have things ready to pop out up the road just in case

[SteveB]

A complete mess then!

[The Tall Weatherman]

Yes I’m in the risk baby ! Only just !

[chapmanslade]

28 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Feeling that those french storms and storms over the channel are going to really reduce the severity of what we end up with here - but I’m liking that storms will be slow moving (if they occur).

I’m certainly not anticipating anything but will have things ready to pop out up the road just in case

They are completely unrelated to the later synoptics.

Current storms are on the leading edge of the warm front / plume.

Tonight's storms will initiate over the Channel / Southern UK as a result of destabilisation of the plume and are not related to surface heating

[ChannelThunder]

UKV is back to thinking that the south coast will be where things kick off in this instance, as opposed to the channel. The CW forecast also mentions this possibility:

Therefore, unlike many events where thunderstorms are advected into southern England from the Channel, the potentially late initiation suggests cells could develop close to the coast or even inland instead (but there will naturally be an error bar of a couple of hours which will make the difference between offshore vs inland initiation).

Just putting this out there so those of us right on the coast aren't too surprised/disappointed if on this occasion, we're just a tad too far south.

[Eagle Eye]

13 minutes ago, Lance M said:

UKV is back to thinking that the south coast will be where things kick off in this instance, as opposed to the channel. The CW forecast also mentions this possibility:

Therefore, unlike many events where thunderstorms are advected into southern England from the Channel, the potentially late initiation suggests cells could develop close to the coast or even inland instead (but there will naturally be an error bar of a couple of hours which will make the difference between offshore vs inland initiation).

Just putting this out there so those of us right on the coast aren't too surprised/disappointed if on this occasion, we're just a tad too far south.

I may actually be the area where the Storms first start firing up, rather than looking South at Storms I might end up looking North at them, actually have more room when looking North so I'm kind of glad about it.

[Super_Uwe]

Can hear the storm south of Salcombe here in Kingsbridge. Interesting structure to it when you do the radar loop.

[minus10]

Interesting that the met has removed the warning for the south and just left if for south west. Maybe there will be other warnings later...

[Dangerous55019]

Morning everyone.

I see that the UK Meto have just issued a thunderstorm warning for tomorrow. ?⛈

[minus10]

6 minutes ago, Dangerous55019 said:

Morning everyone.

I see that the UK Meto have just issued a thunderstorm warning for tomorrow. ?⛈

Must have seen my post above..

[Super_Uwe]

Ooh, bright flash and short but loud crack of thunder there

[minus10]

Still on course according to bbc...

[Supacell]

Decided not to bother last night and stayed home. Tonight is looking more promising. Yesterday I had thought of heading to the south coast tonight but I believe that I would be best to head south but not that far. I don't want to end up to the south of where the storms fire. Thunderstorms will probably become a mass of thundery rain as they spread north into the Midlands and East Anglia and so I don't want to be too far north either. Current charts would suggest I want to probably position on the M1 somewhere near Bedford/Luton by evening and see what develops.