Storms and Convective discussion - 1st May 2022 onwards

[offerman]

Thank you guys for your replies and confirmations. 

[Cheshire Freeze]

I did wonder if we’d see some elevated stuff that the modelling isn’t picking up on.

A bit of a head scratcher as to how so little convective activity is tied into this event.

[viking_smb]

9 minutes ago, staplehurst said:

Yeovilton reporting a cloud base of 15,000ft which fits expectations from model soundings. We discussed this potential in our internal morning briefing on Friday - these are being generated from a fairly shallow layer in the mid-levels above the hot, dry airmass that's advecting slowly northeastwards over the next 48 hours. Much of the rain will likely evaporate before reaching the ground given such high bases and hot/dry air beneath. Would not be surprised to see further 'random' showers pop up periodically between now and Tuesday morning above the EML, before the main focus shifts to the cold front advancing from the SW etc.

whats the thoughts on tues mate please?

[SarahWxm]

Am I right that looking at the charts the risk of thunder from Tuesday night into Wednesday looks non existent for us now? I’m feeling a bit gutted again right now  

[Harry's House]

Looks like Cb tops to SW'ly from here.

[MP-R]

It is certainly interesting how the most thundery breakdowns over the years have often been from the less hot plumes.

The real scorchers often go out like a silent fart...

[Cheshire Freeze]

The GFS is actually hinting that elevated cells may pop off and push N tomorrow night. It hasn’t picked up on this evening’s activity though, which suggests things may be slightly more unstable than what’s shown in the modelling.

If this is the case, those ultra low humidity figures may be wide of the mark going forward. Eeek.

Edited July 17, 2022 by CreweCold

[Polar Maritime]

1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

The GFS is actually hinting that elevated cells may pop off and push N tomorrow night. It hasn’t picked up on this evening’s activity though, which suggests things may be slightly more unstable than what’s shown in the modelling.

If this is the case, those ultra low humidity figures may be wide of the mark going forward. Eeek.

Yes re-humidiy, That's my fear lol

[TQWX]

Pictures from Torquay. It gave some brief heavy rain then dried up quickly. Unfortunately didn't hear any thunder here.

 

[viking_smb]

4 minutes ago, TQWX said:

Pictures from Torquay. It gave some brief heavy rain then dried up quickly. Unfortunately didn't hear any thunder here.

 

your part of the world is lovely , same as weyheymouth

Edited July 17, 2022 by viking_smb

[AnvilCrawlers]

Just taken 

[Jon Somerset]

We just had a short sharp rainstorm go through - with a couple of thunderclaps nearby. Looking at my radar there’s a few in Somerset/Dorset moving in into Wiltshire.

[camturbo]

2 minutes ago, AnvilCrawlers said:

Just taken 

Can just about see that from here

[R Alto]

Cracking mid level instability this evening. The atmosphere looks and feels different now that the plume pushes in.

[Weather26]

I think we may get some unexpected storm action at some point tomorrow or Tuesday that hasn't been picked up on.

[mike5900]

A few pics of clouds passing by here not long ago. 

[ThundersnowDays]

it’s been looking more unstable over the last couple of hours here as well

Edited July 17, 2022 by ThundersnowDays

[AnvilCrawlers]

On 17/07/2022 at 20:59, camturbo said:

Can just about see that from here

That's just one side of the cell,just seems to be growing.i see if I can get another shot phone camvnot very good tho.

[offerman]

Looking stormy in the distance.

These Cells just to my south look stormy on the radar. Not hearing anything from these at the moment though but earlier i could from other cells that were much further away. 

 

[offerman]

It’s raining not far away now , not sure of that’s hitting the ground though. 
 

 

Edited July 17, 2022 by offerman

[offerman]

Nice sunset clouds starting to appear too.

 

 

[Andy Bown]

I guess Mother Nature makes fools out of everyone! It’s not even localised, quite widespread across the SW.

[snowdog]

Can confirm we are having rain reaching the ground here. Mad rush to get things in from the garden. Wasn't expecting any convection for a few days yet.

[pad199207]

Well if these surprises are springing up this evening, maybe there is more to come over the next 48 hrs 

[offerman]

16 minutes ago, ThundersnowDays said:

it’s been looking more unstable over the last couple of hours here as well

Beautiful photos.