July 2022 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 18.6C +1.9C above normal. Rainfall unchanged at 15.2mm 23.8% of the monthly average

Looking like we will end on 18.5C  1.7C above normal so a warm month dry month.

[damianslaw]

Despite the extreme heat July 22 looks like ending up nearly 2 degrees below the exceptional July of 2006.. not often mentioned but that was sustained warmth throughout. 

[Earthshine]

6 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Despite the extreme heat July 22 looks like ending up nearly 2 degrees below the exceptional July of 2006.. not often mentioned but that was sustained warmth throughout. 

July 2006 was an extraordinary month for how the hot spell almost perfectly aligned with the start and end of the month.  19.8°C is an incredible CET but I suspect this decade we will see the first 20°C month.  

[Roger J Smith]

EWP was 15.2 mm by 27th (southeast England region at just 3.3 mm). The past 24 hours appear to have added very slightly and the current end of month projection is still 20 to 22 mm as per a much earlier estimate associated with the preliminary scoring post. In that last three day projection southeast England adds a bit and could finish around 7 mm for the month. 

I posted a list of the top ten dry months of July and this one appears destined for about sixth or seventh place (overall for EWP, it may rank closer to first for the southeast). 

CET numbers will likely rise very slightly now as all three days left to go have projected means around 19 or 20. Finish of 18.2 or perhaps 18.3 seem probable (assuming we are still in the no-adjustment mode). 

[Earthshine]

1 hour ago, Roger J Smith said:

EWP was 15.2 mm by 27th (southeast England region at just 3.3 mm). The past 24 hours appear to have added very slightly and the current end of month projection is still 20 to 22 mm as per a much earlier estimate associated with the preliminary scoring post. In that last three day projection southeast England adds a bit and could finish around 7 mm for the month. 

I posted a list of the top ten dry months of July and this one appears destined for about sixth or seventh place (overall for EWP, it may rank closer to first for the southeast). 

CET numbers will likely rise very slightly now as all three days left to go have projected means around 19 or 20. Finish of 18.2 or perhaps 18.3 seem probable (assuming we are still in the no-adjustment mode). 

A CET of 18.3C would put 2022 in the joint 12th warmest July's, along with 1701, 1733, 1868 and 1859.

[Walsall Wood Snow]

I'll go for 16.9c please.

Sorry wrong thread.

[Roger J Smith]

1 hour ago, Earthshine said:

A CET of 18.3C would put 2022 in the joint 12th warmest July's, along with 1701, 1733, 1868 and 1859.

It has been quite similar to 1868, spells of extreme heat at similar times, and dry (1868 20 mm). Heat continued into parts of August and even September in 1868. And the winter that followed was record mild. 

[damianslaw]

1 hour ago, Roger J Smith said:

It has been quite similar to 1868, spells of extreme heat at similar times, and dry (1868 20 mm). Heat continued into parts of August and even September in 1868. And the winter that followed was record mild. 

What temps occurred in 1868. 

[Roger J Smith]

Some daily record high means survive from 1868, it was before the official era of maximum daily temps, but a reading of 100 F was reported from Gravesend at the time; this has been disputed to some extent since then. So I can't really say with any certainty but there were a few days in the second half of the month that look like they might have been well into the 35-38 C range in southern England.

July 1868 was also a very hot month in Toronto compared to almost all other summer months before 1900. It still ranks in the top five despite having no benefits from an urban heat island or the warmer climate background. 

The Sun must have been turned to "full blast" that summer. 

 

[Roger J Smith]

This post on another forum discusses 1868 further: 

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twocommunity/default.aspx?g=posts&t=19043#:~:text=100.5F at Tonbridge%2C 22nd July 1868 - The,summer ending in"8" Options Previous Topic Next Topic

(apologies in advance if we have a similar thread here, I didn't find it right away)

Oddly enough it is just about 100.5 F here at this very moment which may explain my lethargic condition. 

Edited July 30, 2022 by Roger J Smith

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 18.5C +1.7C above normal. Rainfall 16.1mm 25.2% of the monthly average.

Landing zone now looks to be 18.3C to 18.4C.

Now the fifth driest on record but is now likely to fall further down the list. Unlikely to drop out of the top ten but a surprising turn around when a week ago there was very little in the way of rain on the forecast.

Temperature wise looks like being the fifth or sixth warmest on record.

[Summer Sun]

18.1c to the 29th

2.1c above the 61 to 90 average
1.4c above the 81 to 10 average

[damianslaw]

21 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

This post on another forum discusses 1868 further: 

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twocommunity/default.aspx?g=posts&t=19043#:~:text=100.5F at Tonbridge%2C 22nd July 1868 - The,summer ending in"8" Options Previous Topic Next Topic

(apologies in advance if we have a similar thread here, I didn't find it right away)

Oddly enough it is just about 100.5 F here at this very moment which may explain my lethargic condition. 

A very hot spell then, you wonder now how hot it would be if such temps occured today against the global warming.. its also a remainder that intense heat is not necessaily a recent thing!

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield still at 18.5C  +1.7C above normal. Rainfall 21.1mm 33% of the average rainfall.

Now the 7th driest July on record. 5th warmest at 18.5C may go down to 18.4C if we only get to 20.7C today.

[Summer Sun]

18.1c to the 30th

2.1c above the 61 to 90 average
1.4c above the 81 to 10 average

[Don]

3 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

18.1c to the 30th

2.1c above the 61 to 90 average
1.4c above the 81 to 10 average

I suspect 18.1C will be the overall CET for July now?

[Roger J Smith]

Probably but the mean for the day looks to be above 20 so it could slip back to 18.2. I think the 18.1 on 30th is something like 18.07 so there's a lot of 18.1 to overcome to round up to 18.2. 

Edited July 31, 2022 by Roger J Smith

[Weather-history]

On 30/07/2022 at 02:06, Roger J Smith said:

This post on another forum discusses 1868 further: 

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twocommunity/default.aspx?g=posts&t=19043#:~:text=100.5F at Tonbridge%2C 22nd July 1868 - The,summer ending in"8" Options Previous Topic Next Topic

(apologies in advance if we have a similar thread here, I didn't find it right away)

Oddly enough it is just about 100.5 F here at this very moment which may explain my lethargic condition. 

I wrote that article and an article on netweather with a table of temperatures recorded during that heatwave. Funny that May-July 2018  was similiar to May-July 1868.

As regards to the CET, it looks as though the heat spike has added to 0.5C to the July CET. 

[Roger J Smith]

EWP ranks are probably set, so this is how best combined looks for 18.1 or 18.2 (which I think are the only possible CET outcomes) ...

If 18.2, then best combined is Emmett Garland (3rd CET, 3rd EWP = 6) followed by rwtwm (2nd, 6th) and Reef (4th, 8th). 

If 18.1, then it becomes Reef (1st, 8th), rwtwm (4th, 6th) and Emmett falls to (8th, 3rd). 

February1978 also had a good effort with 18.1, 49 mm but that was 18th EWP with a lot of dry forecasts.  

[Roger J Smith]

You had a heat spike but I am having a heat sledge-hammer, the last five days of July will average about 28 C here like the worst day of your heat wave, we've had highs of 39-40 C each day, and the monthly anomaly has jumped from near normal after 26 days, to +1.2. We have one more day of this and then it "cools down" to the low 30s for a week. There is still some remnant snow at alpine levels so the Columbia River is running at spring freshet levels which is odd for mid-summer. 

[damianslaw]

A finish between 18 and 18.2 degrees likely, let's go 18.1 degrees. Yet another appreciably above average month. When will our next below average month be? 

[Don]

54 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

A finish between 18 and 18.2 degrees likely, let's go 18.1 degrees. Yet another appreciably above average month. When will our next below average month be? 

September 

[Roger J Smith]

EWP was 22.0 mm after 30th, grid average on 31st appears to be about 1 mm more, for 23 mm. Will confirm tomorrow and update the scoring already estimated for 22 mm (no changes are anticipated but I will add the rankings for average error). 

Check the August table of forecasts as a couple of regular entrants did not specify an August EWP and a couple of regular contest entrants haven't checked in. Better late than never as daniel* can tell you from July. 

[Scorcher]

10 hours ago, damianslaw said:

A finish between 18 and 18.2 degrees likely, let's go 18.1 degrees. Yet another appreciably above average month. When will our next below average month be? 

They just don't happen much these days Damian, so very hard to say. I can see August also being comfortably above average.

Sunshine-wise though we are due a very sunny August with above average sunshine- even the warm ones haven't tended to be very sunny over the last 15 years or so.

[reef]

3 hours ago, Scorcher said:

They just don't happen much these days Damian, so very hard to say. I can see August also being comfortably above average.

Sunshine-wise though we are due a very sunny August with above average sunshine- even the warm ones haven't tended to be very sunny over the last 15 years or so.

That hasn't been the case here. Every August from 2013 to 2019 had above average sunshine:

2013: 205hrs (111%)
2014: 201hrs  (109%)
2015: 191hrs (104%)
2016: 207hrs (113%)
2017: 207hrs (113%)
2018: 190hrs (103%)
2019: 217hrs  (118%)

The last two were pretty dull though.