July 2022 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[Summer Sun]

18.2c to the 22nd

2.2c above the 61 to 90 average
1.7c above the 81 to 10 average

[Roger J Smith]

Gaining confidence that EWP will finish around 20 mm so the already posted annual standings have more chance of verifying now. We are probably just around 10 mm with 6.6 in the account by end of Thursday and grid average looking like 3-4 mm on Friday. The eight day grid average on GFS is about 8-10 mm tops, with the southeast quadrant expected to remain dry, 10-20 mm in parts of Wales and northwest England, small amounts in between. 

At the moment there is a bit more upward than downward pressure on the CET so 18.2 to 18.4 looks reasonable as a landing zone. Monday and Tuesday will see the biggest downward pressure, if it doesn't fall below 17.9 there it will likely rebound in warmer weather at the end of the week and month. 

Which makes me quite happy for a change (it has been a rough campaign to say the least).

[Roger J Smith]

Fun fact that might surprise you, of the 20 warmest months of July, if this year joins them at 18.2 to 18.4, still 13 of the 20 were before any of us reading this thread were born (1934 or earlier). It was three of the top nine but then ten more of the next eleven (counting this year, otherwise 1989 is 20th). This tendency remains in place to around 50th place, from 1989 (now 20th) to 63rd place 1905 (17.2, the coolest of the several at that value) of those forty-four years, 31 were 1933 or earlier for a total of 44 of 63. And there are not many in the interval from 1850 to 1934 in that collection, many were further back into the early 19th century and the 18th century. The only thing modern about the warming in July is near the top of the list, in the chase pack the distribution is not much different from random (1659 to 1934 is about three-quarters of the data, and 44 of 63 is about 70%. Take out the cool Maunder period and the differential is actually somewhat skewed towards the 18th century. 

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 18.9C +2.5C above normal. Rainfall 7.4mm 11.6% of the monthly average.

Still in the top five warmest months and looks like coming in joint 5th warmest for us. Rainfall still at number position . Today and tomorrow could well determine whether it stays there or not. Since I filled the ponds up it's likely to chuck it down.

[Roger J Smith]

I think there was no CET update posted today but Saturday 23rd looks to be around same as running CET of 18.2, today looks close to 20 for a daily mean. Would therefore predict we may be at 18.3 on tomorrow's update (or a more solid 18.2). 

[damianslaw]

Not expecting much change in the CET for the rest of the week, some cool minima may have more of an affect, but maxima remaining at or above average in the CET zone. A finish between 17.9 and 18.3 degrees a good bet. This month is reminding me alot of July 2013.

[Summer Sun]

18.3c to the 24th

2.3c above the 61 to 90 average
1.8c above the 81 to 10 average

[Earthshine]

Maximum CET is currently 23.9°C which is an impressive 3.6°C above average, continuing the run of significantly warmer than average months this year.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield still at 18.9C +2.5C above normal. Rainfall up to 9.7mm 15.2% of the monthly average.

We are now just 2.7mm of the lowest recorded rain for July. If it stays dry tonight I think it's cracked it. Looking like the 5th warmest July on record for us as well. Latest runs suggest very little to push it up or down.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield remains at 18.9C +2.4C above normal. Rainfall up to 10.2mm 16% of the monthly average.

More rain today so now unlikely to be the driest July on record.

[Earthshine]

Interesting how there's been only one 18°C+ CET month since 2013 (2018 at 19.3°C).  I think it's only a matter of time before we have a 20°C CET month tbh.

[Roger J Smith]

No updates were issued today, I think the mean for 25th was probably around 17 and same today, that combined would probably mean that the running CET will drop to 18.2 again through today. 

EWP was 12.7 mm through 24th, may have added 2 mm since then, looks to add 5 mm more, will likely finish near 20 mm. This is a list of the top ten dry months of July to see how 2022 might finish ...

Rank ____ Year ____ Prec (mm)

01 ______ 1825 _____ 8.2

02 ______ 1800 _____ 9.1

03 ______ 1911 ____15.8

04 ______ 1868 ____20.0

05 ______ 1869 ____21.6

06 ______ 1977 ____23.7

07 ______ 1885 ____24.5

08 ______ 1898 ____25.2

09 ______ 1955 ____26.1

10 ______ 1999 ____26.3

__________________________

The driest July since 1999 was 33rd 2006 (39.1 mm) ... 2018 was 39.6 mm. 

[damianslaw]

1 minute ago, Roger J Smith said:

No updates were issued today, I think the mean for 25th was probably around 17 and same today, that combined would probably mean that the running CET will drop to 18.2 again through today. 

EWP was 12.7 mm through 24th, may have added 2 mm since then, looks to add 5 mm more, will likely finish near 20 mm. This is a list of the top ten dry months of July to see how 2022 might finish ...

Rank ____ Year ____ Prec (mm)

01 ______ 1825 _____ 8.2

02 ______ 1800 _____ 9.1

03 ______ 1911 ____15.8

04 ______ 1868 ____20.0

05 ______ 1869 ____21.6

06 ______ 1977 ____23.7

07 ______ 1885 ____24.5

08 ______ 1898 ____25.2

09 ______ 1955 ____26.1

10 ______ 1999 ____26.3

__________________________

The driest July since 1999 was 33rd 2006 (39.1 mm) ... 2018 was 39.6 mm. 

Will be interesting to see the anomalies charts end of the month. Marked north- south divide. Scotland and N Ireland  near of just a bit below average.

 N England and Wales quite a fair bit below but possibly about 50%.

South significantly so. 

I did not expect this July to be so dry.

[Mark Smithy]

Cold night for the time of year with some temps dipping as low as 2C or 3C. That'll knock a decimal point off the CET.

[summer blizzard]

11 hours ago, Earthshine said:

Interesting how there's been only one 18°C+ CET month since 2013 (2018 at 19.3°C).  I think it's only a matter of time before we have a 20°C CET month tbh.

That's normal. Since 1950 we average about 1 every 7 years for 18C+ and about 1 every 10 years for August.

[Summer Sun]

18.2c to the 26th

2.2c above the 61 to 90 average
1.6c above the 81 to 10 average

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 18.8C +2.2C degrees above normal. Rainfall 12.2mm 19.1% of the monthly average

A slow drop to 18.6C is likely which would put it at the fifth warmest July on record. Rainfall probably end up 3rd or 4th driest on record.

[Methuselah]

On 26/06/2022 at 15:46, Ed Stone said:

17.9C and 75mm please.

Come on rain: only another 74mm to go!

[Summer Sun]

18.1c to the 27th

2.1c above the 61 to 90 average
1.5c above the 81 to 10 average

[damianslaw]

Not expecting much change in the CET to months end. A finish 18 to 18.2 slight chance end in 17s. A very warm July. Slightly warmer than 2019 and 2021 but not as warm as 2013. Despite the record heat.. 2006 and 2018 will trounce it. July 95 also. So far summer 22 good bit not high echelons heat wise.. Still August to go..

Edited July 28, 2022 by damianslaw

[Earthshine]

1 hour ago, damianslaw said:

Not expecting much change in the CET to months end. A finish 18 to 18.2 slight chance end in 17s. A very warm July. Slightly warmer than 2019 and 2021 but not as warm as 2013. Despite the record heat.. 2006 and 2018 will trounce it. July 95 also. So far summer 22 good bit not high echelons heat wise.. Still August to go..

Yep this month is very much just a slightly better 2019.  The heat spikes were even more extreme but also more summery weather in general this month.  Hoping we get a more prolonged warm spell (I'm talking 25-30 Celsius with plenty of sunshine) in August.  I literally cannot remember the last very sunny August (think 2003 was the last one and I was 3 years old at the time!).

[damianslaw]

4 hours ago, Earthshine said:

Yep this month is very much just a slightly better 2019.  The heat spikes were even more extreme but also more summery weather in general this month.  Hoping we get a more prolonged warm spell (I'm talking 25-30 Celsius with plenty of sunshine) in August.  I literally cannot remember the last very sunny August (think 2003 was the last one and I was 3 years old at the time!).

Here last July was better than this one.. 2018 far better. Its been a good July but nothing special in the Lake District notwithstanding the 2 day extreme heat wonder.

[East Lancs Rain]

44 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Here last July was better than this one.. 2018 far better. Its been a good July but nothing special in the Lake District notwithstanding the 2 day extreme heat wonder.

I’d say quite a poor one really. Dry yes but way too much cloud (at least here anyway, might have been sunnier up in the Lake District) and temps very mediocre apart from the extreme heatwave. Even July 2019 was a better month here, yes it was wetter but it was also a lot sunnier. This summer has just mostly been a cloud fest here.

Other than two days of mid-30’s heat, it has been a very forgettable summer here.

 

Hopefully August has more interest, but based off how recent August’s have been I’m not holding my hopes up - probably just cool, cloudy and damp as usual.

[Summer Sun]

18.1c to the 28th

2.1c above the 61 to 90 average
1.5c above the 81 to 10 average

[Earthshine]

14 hours ago, East Lancs Rain said:

I’d say quite a poor one really. Dry yes but way too much cloud (at least here anyway, might have been sunnier up in the Lake District) and temps very mediocre apart from the extreme heatwave. Even July 2019 was a better month here, yes it was wetter but it was also a lot sunnier. This summer has just mostly been a cloud fest here.

Other than two days of mid-30’s heat, it has been a very forgettable summer here.

 

Hopefully August has more interest, but based off how recent August’s have been I’m not holding my hopes up - probably just cool, cloudy and damp as usual.

That's true, I think it's definitely been better further south.  Here in Exeter we've had quite a bit of sunshine and warm temperatures.