Autumn 2022 - Moans, Ramps & Chat

[Summer8906]

2 hours ago, markyo said:

Right I'm going to be honest, nothing to do with preferences or whatever. The Pennie chains are virtually empty, the areas i have been in southern counties not much better, a dry Autumn and Winter will result in massive issues, that is blatantly obvious. We need rain, a lot of rain, a repeat of this Summer would be catastrophic if not, stand pipes, failed crops etc. I get what your saying, some folk like yourself struggle due to SAD, i have reverse SAD so understand but the fact is we need water. We are at less than 30% currently in a lot of areas.

OK fair point, but I'm surprised there is a water shortage in southern areas, when the past 12 months don't seem to have been that dry here, and in the 12 months before that (i.e. Oct 20-Sep 21) we had some exceedingly wet months (Oct 2020, May-June-July 2021, October 2021 also being decidedly wet) and a decided lack of dry ones (only March-April-September 2021).

Edited September 30, 2022 by Summer8906

[Weather Enthusiast91]

1 hour ago, JR319 said:

Today has been the first truly ‘proper’ day of some meaningful rain in what seems like months. We could definitely do with a couple more days of this intensity of rain to top up the water levels. 
 

The last thing we need is high pressure stuck over us for months upon end. We’ve had enough of that in what seems like for several months. Time for a change please! 

I agree. High pressure for long periods of time not only affects water levels, but as a weather enthusiast it also gets boring - particularly during autumn and winter as it often leads to anticyclonic gloom. Though I do love it when it produces cold crisp sunny days during winter which we occasionally get.

Many areas certainly are in need of rain. The grass may have greened up nicely, but the drought is far from over.

 

Edited September 30, 2022 by Weather Enthusiast91

[Summer8906]

Perhaps it's not so much the rain that gets me on second thoughts, it's the weather between the fronts.

Today is a perfect case in point, which illustrates all that is wrong with the Northwestern European climate. We're between frontal systems, yet it's completely overcast and the airmass is very damp and humid. Still a lot of standing water now, hours after the rain stopped. Last week, despite being cool and changeable, was better because the air was drier so the ground dried out between the showers.

Typical October weather, nuff said really. Damp, humid and overcast - but not cold.

Maybe if we had two active frontal systems per week (both on Mon-Fri or overnight, of course) but with dry, bright, low-DP air with drying northerly or easterly winds in between, that would keep everyone happy. November 1996-like conditions, in other words. One of the few wet autumn/winter months I actively enjoyed.

That, I think, is why we have it so bad in NW Europe on reflection. Other parts of the world get rain, but the rest of Europe and most of North America get much more pleasant weather in between any frontal systems. Here, certainly from October to February, it seems to be almost permanently damp.

The opposite time of year, April, is quite the reverse. Perhaps (with May) the most interesting month of the year as it's just about the only one which can produce 29C heat and heavy, lying snow.

 

Edited October 1, 2022 by Summer8906

[heath]

This should reduce gas use for electricity at least.

[Sunny76]

On 30/09/2022 at 01:12, Weather Enthusiast91 said:

I remember the middle of September 2013 being quite cool for the time of year too. The temperature only reached 11 Celsius on the 17th in my neck of the woods. I believe London reached a top temp of 13 Celsius on that day. Temperatures more akin to late October.

Needless to say, that spell came as a bit of a shock after the warm few days early that month as well as being on the back of a warm summer.

 

And of course that was the start of the mild winters during the 2010s.

[damianslaw]

1 hour ago, Summer8906 said:

Perhaps it's not so much the rain that gets me on second thoughts, it's the weather between the fronts.

Today is a perfect case in point, which illustrates all that is wrong with the Northwestern European climate. We're between frontal systems, yet it's completely overcast and the airmass is very damp and humid. Still a lot of standing water now, hours after the rain stopped. Last week, despite being cool and changeable, was better because the air was drier so the ground dried out between the showers.

Typical October weather, nuff said really. Damp, humid and overcast - but not cold.

Maybe if we had two active frontal systems per week (both on Mon-Fri or overnight, of course) but with dry, bright, low-DP air with drying northerly or easterly winds in between, that would keep everyone happy. November 1996-like conditions, in other words. One of the few wet autumn/winter months I actively enjoyed.

That, I think, is why we have it so bad in NW Europe on reflection. Other parts of the world get rain, but the rest of Europe and most of North America get much more pleasant weather in between any frontal systems. Here, certainly from October to February, it seems to be almost permanently damp.

The opposite time of year, April, is quite the reverse. Perhaps (with May) the most interesting month of the year as it's just about the only one which can produce 29C heat and heavy, lying snow.

 

Its called a maritime climate, when the airflow is between SW and NW, more often than any other direction, it is humid and temperate, lots of associated cloud. As we move into October, such air generally means showers or overcast skies between fronts, unless there is a long fetch polar flow entrenched.. then brighter showery air occurs, the NW polar maritime airstream. The tropical.maritime airstream is absolutr worse here, detest it, returning polar maritime not much better.

Polar maritime, arctic maritime and polar continental in the Oct to March period are the best for clearer conditions. Tropical continental and SE flows can be very dull.

[Don]

1 hour ago, Sunny76 said:

And of course that was the start of the mild winters during the 2010s.

I think July 2013 marked the switch back to the warmer pattern.  The first 6 months of 2013 were all colder than average but that changed suddenly and not to mention with a vengeance after the opening days of the month!!

[SunSean]

Been a beautiful sunny morning here and thought maybe we would get lucky and have it last the whole day but unfortunately there is monumental build up of cloud, multiplying at a rate of knotts!! To get a full day of sun in October in the UK is about as likely as getting 5 numbers on the lottery lol.

[Summer8906]

1 hour ago, damianslaw said:

Its called a maritime climate, when the airflow is between SW and NW, more often than any other direction, it is humid and temperate, lots of associated cloud. As we move into October, such air generally means showers or overcast skies between fronts, unless there is a long fetch polar flow entrenched.. then brighter showery air occurs, the NW polar maritime airstream. The tropical.maritime airstream is absolutr worse here, detest it, returning polar maritime not much better.

I'd tend to agree there, but just having a moan to be honest ... and highlighting how few 'true' Pm airmasses we seem to get and how often we get drab, wishy-washy rPm instead with its associated cloud and humidity. This seems to be the case even if, as today, there isn't a particularly notable southerly component to the wind - often rPm air seems to arrive with winds north of west.

The strange thing is that most text books on weather (or at least the ones I read, which were generally in the early- to mid-80s) focused very much on classic polar maritime air, with clear blue skies, and showers in summer (but not in winter), leading me to believe that was the norm. Few books focused on the dull wishy-washy air so prevalent in this part of Europe, maybe the books were written by Central European or North American authors?

And to be fair, 'classic' Pm seemed, to me, to be more common in the 80s.

1 hour ago, damianslaw said:

Polar maritime, arctic maritime and polar continental in the Oct to March period are the best for clearer conditions. Tropical continental and SE flows can be very dull.

I'd agree about Pm and Am certainly, though polar continental is often rather dull in my experience, albeit interestingly cold in mid winter. Tropical continental tends to bring sunny and very warm weather in October and again in late February onwards, but I'd agree is very dull from Nov-Jan; typical 'anticyclonic gloom' of slightly-mild temps and complete Sc cover often seems to be associated with SE winds.

Best hope for winter sunshine are repeated shots of air from the N or NW, I'd agree. A true polar or arctic airmass gets in, it's then followed by a high, and as soon as the high stagnates and threatens to become too cloudy or foggy, we get another shot of N or NW-ly air in again.

Edited October 1, 2022 by Summer8906

[Methuselah]

What a stonker of an autumn day: 18C and only a few fast-moving small cumuli about!

[Weather Enthusiast91]

Hard to believe that September has gone already and that we're now in the final quarter of the year. 

I have enjoyed September overall as it was quite a mixed month and far more seasonal than some other recent Septembers. We had some much needed rainfall too, which greened up the grass very nicely, though the drought is far from over. I would summarise this past September as being a month of two halves - a warm but unsettled first half followed by a much cooler but settled second half, with the weather turning increasingly autumnal in the last few days.

[*Stormforce~beka*]

Wow! 1st October and we hit 20.3c! Didn't feel it mind.

[damianslaw]

1 hour ago, *Stormforce~beka* said:

Wow! 1st October and we hit 20.3c! Didn't feel it mind.

Yes power of the sun on the wane now.. still has a bit of warmth in it, but in about 3 weeks time especially in the north its strength becomes weak.

Once October arrives I resign myself to 5 months of non- sitting outside on the garden terrace. With heating, not so, or when resting as part of a walk wrapped up, but general sitting out, well that's it until Spring.

Edited October 1, 2022 by damianslaw

[Weather Enthusiast91]

A very pleasant start to October here. 18 Celsius, partly sunny and a nice breeze.   

I am hoping October will end up being another mixed month, just like September was. Including a couple of good autumnal storms being added to the mix.

Edited October 1, 2022 by Weather Enthusiast91

[East Lancs Rain]

On 30/09/2022 at 17:26, markyo said:

What a fantastic day of so much needed rain, months of this is required. Really starting to get a very bad feeling that folk have no idea how bad the water situation is. Last thing we need now is an Indian summer! Just take a look at the stock levels, never seen it so bad.

Not sure I’d describe yesterday as “fantastic” but yes we had some useful rain yesterday. 
 

Just checked bbc weather app for my area and after tomorrow it’s rain or showers pretty much every single day. It might be a desert in Sheffield but here in damp east Lancs the grass is sopping wet, I’ve had plenty of rain in September and I certainly don’t want a repeat of October 2019 - February 2020 when it rained and rained and rained for months on end and caused a lot of problems with flooding and damage from strong winds.
 

Give it a few months and we’ll be having floods up and down the country  and the drought will become a distant memory I bet you.

 

That said, a mild and wet winter would be ideal to relieve not only the drought but to ease the struggle of the high energy prices.

 

Id like at least a few days of 15-20°C and sunny in October first though, it’s a long wait until next spring.

23 hours ago, JR319 said:

Today has been the first truly ‘proper’ day of some meaningful rain in what seems like months. We could definitely do with a couple more days of this intensity of rain to top up the water levels. 
 

The last thing we need is high pressure stuck over us for months upon end. We’ve had enough of that in what seems like for several months. Time for a change please! 

As long as we don’t get low pressure stuck under us for months on end like what happened between October 2019 and February 2020. A good five months of wet and windy weather, and temps in that chilly but not freezing cold 7-13°C range.

6 hours ago, damianslaw said:

Its called a maritime climate, when the airflow is between SW and NW, more often than any other direction, it is humid and temperate, lots of associated cloud. As we move into October, such air generally means showers or overcast skies between fronts, unless there is a long fetch polar flow entrenched.. then brighter showery air occurs, the NW polar maritime airstream. The tropical.maritime airstream is absolutr worse here, detest it, returning polar maritime not much better.

Polar maritime, arctic maritime and polar continental in the Oct to March period are the best for clearer conditions. Tropical continental and SE flows can be very dull.

Can they? February 2019 had a lot of tropical continental air, and we had lots of exceptionally warm, sunny weather.

4 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

What a stonker of an autumn day: 18C and only a few fast-moving small cumuli about!

More like a stinker of an autumn day here, max of 14°C with lots of heavy showers and gusty winds. 🌦 Not much sunshine between the showers either.

2 hours ago, *Stormforce~beka* said:

Wow! 1st October and we hit 20.3c! Didn't feel it mind.

Amazing how much warmer and drier the south can be in a zonal setup at this time of year. Max of just 14.5°C here, with lots of rain and some gusty winds at times.

[markyo]

29 minutes ago, East Lancs Rain said:

Give it a few months and we’ll be having floods up and down the country  and the drought will become a distant memory I bet you.

I suggest you have a trip over the Pennies, start with the Woodhead pass, several massive sets up there, all out, come back over the M62, same story.  We need a monsoon to refill them to anything like needed for next summer. Been doing those routes for over 40 years, i have never even seen them close to the levels they are now.

[Summer8906]

4 hours ago, *Stormforce~beka* said:

Wow! 1st October and we hit 20.3c! Didn't feel it mind.

The afternoon was brighter, but no definitely didn't feel 20. Would have guessed about 17. Felt mild if you were moving about but a chilly nagging breeze.

Despite the comments about lack of rain I'd still like a good week of really warm, sunny weather in the next three weeks or so. It could always be preceded by a serious deluge... many climates feature one- or two-day intense rain events followed by periods of dry and sunny weather in between, and seem to do well enough for water.

Edited October 1, 2022 by Summer8906

[Tim Bland]

Hope we see plenty of this in the months ahead  

[Don]

30 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Hope we see plenty of this in the months ahead  

15th December would do!

[richie3846]

On 30/09/2022 at 19:27, Summer8906 said:

OK fair point, but I'm surprised there is a water shortage in southern areas, when the past 12 months don't seem to have been that dry here, and in the 12 months before that (i.e. Oct 20-Sep 21) we had some exceedingly wet months (Oct 2020, May-June-July 2021, October 2021 also being decidedly wet) and a decided lack of dry ones (only March-April-September 2021).

October 21 was followed by an exceptionally dry November. The winter that followed was on the dry side, and this was then followed by a dry spring and dry summer, plus the additional strain of very warm and sunny conditions, which sucked the life out of the water reserves. It was a perfect storm that led to a very quick shift from plenty of water to not enough water.

[cheeky_monkey]

summer keeps on going here ..25c and sunny over the weekend ..still dry and into the low 20s this week..still not had a frost air or ground.

[Andy Bown]

Did anyone have breakfast on the Scilly Isles today!?

[Don]

3 hours ago, cheeky_monkey said:

summer keeps on going here ..25c and sunny over the weekend ..still dry and into the low 20s this week..still not had a frost air or ground.

You and your bloomin summer!!  About time it cooled down innit?! 

[carinthian]

I must admit I do not like that chart from ECM . Rinse and Spin for the UK  and endless mild days over mainland Europe. A familiar cycle that could go on for weeks on end. Hate it .

C

[Don]

54 minutes ago, carinthian said:

I must admit I do not like that chart from ECM . Rinse and Spin for the UK  and endless mild days over mainland Europe. A familiar cycle that could go on for weeks on end. Hate it .

C

Much better to have charts like that now than in 2 months time though!