Autumn 2022 - Moans, Ramps & Chat

[Summer8906]

15 hours ago, Weather of Mass Disruption said:

73' for parts of Boston, now that's a winter storm! Need to move to the States for my snow fix it seems! 

https://youtu.be/zYtH32NYJk4

 

 

When I saw the figure "73" I read it as Fahrenheit (as that's what they use) and thought they were enjoying an unseasonable warm spell!

It's clear that not all parts of the temperate world are getting more drab winters than traditionally. The northeastern USA seems if anything to be getting even snowier!

[Summer8906]

19 hours ago, markyo said:

A proper Autumn weekend, love it. The feel is just right, seasonal, light levels fantastic, proper weather also. Least the last few Autumn weeks are making up for the shocking start to the season.

Interesting what triggers "classic autumn" for different people.

For me, it's something much earlier in the season, with better light levels, higher temps and more benign weather. I'd probably class mid-Oct as the most typical period of autumn, when we're still on BST, the light level during midday and early afternoon is much higher than now. Specifically the conditions which are "classic" autumn for me would be a settled spell in mid-Oct with max temps around or a little over 15C,  mist/fog first thing and bright afternoons.

[Summer8906]

On 17/11/2022 at 23:26, ResonantChannelThunder said:

Yes, Eunice was a very strange one, wasn't it? I think we had about 20 minutes of rainfall from it in the early morning I believe. At the peak of the winds during late morning there was fairly bright sunshine for hours!

If I remember right the Burns Storm of Jan 1990 was similar to Eunice in the sense that it produced little or no rain, but was perhaps amongst the strongest 3 storms of my lifetime (1987 being top of course). Indeed that day was very sunny if I remember right, while here, the Eunice day was bright but still fairly cloudy. As you say there was a spell of about 20 mins rain perhaps just before 9, which brought in the strongest winds. Prior to that all seemed normal, the journey into work was not disrupted, and we got told we shouldn't come into work just as I arrived !

(As I didn't leave work until 5, I avoided being out in the strongest winds as just stayed at work as it passed over!)

Back to the Burns storm period, January 1990 had been pretty dry up to that point down here, in fact I seem to remember a map showing that the far south was disproportionately dry that winter as a whole. The really wet weather seemed to them follow the Burns storm, with an active system producing a pretty miserable weekend on the 27th/28th then frequent active systems until about Feb 17th. But the winter as a whole seemed a good deal less wet than 2013/4 or 2019/20, for example.

Edited November 20, 2022 by Summer8906

[mb018538]

Looking at the latest output it's increasingly likely that Autumn 2022 (here at least) will pass us by without a single frost. Just another sign of how ridiculously mild it has been throughout. November looks like it could be headed towards the top of the all time list seeing as we are +3.8c up to the 19th, and a mild end to the month is in the offing too.

[Sceptical]

Latest update to the Met Office Outlook removes all mention of wintry showers and snow.  

[Frosty.]

The Cfs is my ..go to model.. for cold potential.. I cannae think why!?  

Edited November 20, 2022 by jon snow

[sheikhy]

2 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Not hopeful of settled weather, GFS not been on board, feel EC will switch on 00Z

Yeh just think we gona have to hope for the best!!!been raining every other day over the last 2 months!done with it really!!!

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

Yeh just think we gona have to hope for the best!!!been raining every other day over the last 2 months!done with it really!!!

Pretty confident HP will be in town start of Dec ,hang in there man ..

[sheikhy]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Pretty confident HP will be in town start of Dec ,hang in there man ..

Trying to man!!!!so frustrating!!more bloody rain tomorrow afternoon again!!!about time we got a nice dry ice day!!!!

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

Trying to man!!!!so frustrating!!more bloody rain tomorrow afternoon again!!!about time we got a nice dry ice day!!!!

I'm with you honest.

It's rare to see a blocked set up early Dec but that,I think,is the direction of travel.

 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Not bothered about temps, just dry will be good during the day, not night

[johncam]

1 hour ago, Sceptical said:

Latest update to the Met Office Outlook removes all mention of wintry showers and snow.  

Aye said that in the model thread and got it removed , not getting all the excitement that some are showing over there , we will see how it sll pans out 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

5 minutes ago, johncam said:

Aye said that in the model thread and got it removed , not getting all the excitement that some are showing over there , we will see how it sll pans out 

Absolutely no chance, even if EC is closer than GFS, no snow/wintry showers on there

[Decemberof2010]

Please only enter the model thread if you have an abundance of knowledge and use big words. Otherwise you’ll find yourself in here 

[Paul]

It's not exactly like that though is it @Decemberof2010? It's the model discussion thread, so the ask is that posts are discussing the models. It's not such a wild thing to aim for as far as I can see, and it's what the vast majority of members want to see in that thread. It's not like there aren't threads, like this one, for just about every other weather related topic. 

[Summer8906]

GFS seems today to be showing repeated suggestions of dry and cloudy (by my interpretation of the charts) in early December though also hints of possible northerly plunges. Not properly over here, more affecting Scandinavia, but you never know.

After the deluge the next four days, maybe even dry and cloudy will be welcome.

The Met Office forecast does still seem to hint at an easterly setup though, specifically "Any spells of more unsettled weather are more likely to be across the south of the UK, at least for a time, whilst northern areas remain drier".

Difficult to know where it will go long-term though. Knowing typical December behaviour  the high will migrate south and the typical mid-winter zonality will then set in for the middle and later parts of the month, but who knows...

Edited November 20, 2022 by Summer8906

[Sceptical]

20 minutes ago, johncam said:

Aye said that in the model thread and got it removed , not getting all the excitement that some are showing over there , we will see how it sll pans out 

Suspect the Met won't be far off the mark.

[Don]

20 minutes ago, Sceptical said:

Suspect the Met won't be far off the mark.

I suspect that forecast may change again, possibly back to a more wintry outlook or further towards a UK high.

[summer blizzard]

Euro has got high pressure for the 4th run in a row albeit it looks like it's going for a northerly rather than easterly.

[Mapantz]

A little premature from the Davis console.

[KTtom]

12 hours ago, Sceptical said:

Latest update to the Met Office Outlook removes all mention of wintry showers and snow.  

It does make me wonder who compiles these forecasts and do they know some hang on every word!? I keep going back to the one issues late October for week 2 November... they forecast high pressure over the UK settling things down with a risk of snow showers for thennorth and west....that is synoptically impossible in my eyes, cold is always drawn to the east and southern flank of a high, west and north being milder. Never seen snow showers from a high over the uk. The latest one you refer to had snow for central areas from average temperatures!. I think the tea boy should stick to his job description. 

[RJBingham]

I think this might be day 1 of the 10+ day winter 

Edited November 21, 2022 by RJBingham

[RabbitEars]

Reading the mod thread... all very interesting (sometimes written for the novice and sometimes it reads like code!!).

There seems to be a focus on the rainy windy atlantic flow we're in now... and a hope of some high latitude blocking...

Much of the year's weather, as far as I understand it, has been generated by HLB, creating milder than long term average weather and some heat waves.

It seems that when it's blocked, we want Atlantic and when it's a westerly Atlantic flow, we'd rather have a block!!

Surely even in winter a block could give record mild temperatures? It's not all going to be crisp, frosty and cold, after such a record breakingly warm/hot year here in the UK and across Europe.  I would love it to be cold, crisp, frosty with snow flurries.

But we also have to consider high energy prices, people die in cold homes. Also if there's really cold weather and a huge demand for energy then utilities may end up having to ration energy... that would be equal in civil contingency measures to the emergency that is the ongoing pandemic! 

I think we (coldies) should be careful what we wish for! 

[RebsAbbo]

First real hard frost of the season here today. Garden therm only registered 0c as overnight low but that is sheltered. Car therm was telling me -2c whilst I scraped the ice from the windows at 7am. Lots of fog around with temps still only at 4c at 10am.

[damianslaw]

We have widespread colder than average temps now over northern half of UK, first time in about 7 weeks!