Storms and Convective discussion - 1st August 2022 onwards

[camturbo]

3 minutes ago, Liam Burge said:

MetO has our area clearing up between 12pm and 2pm before some monster storms look like they develop and come right over our area!

Don't lose your hope yet.

Let's hope your right I'm not that far from you so I might see something as well

[Lu.]

Torrential rain currently, definitely needed & the air feels so much better! 
not had rain like this for a long time. 
Feels like I’m waiting for that ‘Boom’ 

[Cableguy]

Thankful for the rain but blimey what an anti climax after such a long dry spell!

[thunderhead 2005]

Loads more cells just north of the IOW, these could be the ones that fire off. 

[Liam Burge]

5 minutes ago, camturbo said:

Let's hope your right I'm not that far from you so I might see something as well

Looks like the risk has shifted a bit more southwards but I am not quite sure currently.

Looking at this MetO run I am just shocked. Those types of cells training over the same areas one after another would cause locally very high rainfall totals, which is what I'm sure Dan was alluding to in his forecast with the '100mm possible'.

[Mapantz]

I just walked up the garden in the rain and heard "Ahhhhhhh" it was the lawn!

Edited August 16, 2022 by Mapantz

[RebsAbbo]

12 hours ago, SnowBear said:

Meanwhile.... Earlier in Clovelly... 

Clovelly Cottage Tea Rooms water fall

It is a Facebook link, not sure if they work here? 

Scarily reminiscent of Boscastle in 2004! That was the same week too (16th Aug)…

[camturbo]

4 minutes ago, Liam Burge said:

Looks like the risk has shifted a bit more southwards but I am not quite sure currently.

Looking at this MetO run I am just shocked. Those types of cells training over the same areas one after another would cause locally very high rainfall totals, which is what I'm sure Dan was alluding to in his forecast with the '100mm possible'.

Yep I imagine there could be some flash floods if any storms do fire up seeing as the ground is rock hard. Time will tell

[thunderhead 2005]

4 minutes ago, Liam Burge said:

Looks like the risk has shifted a bit more southwards but I am not quite sure currently.

Looking at this MetO run I am just shocked. Those types of cells training over the same areas one after another would cause locally very high rainfall totals, which is what I'm sure Dan was alluding to in his forecast with the '100mm possible'.

Yeah not so much in the way of thunder or lightning but heavy bursts in a small amount of time. Disappointing but there is still time 

[StormLoser]

Steady rain here which is brilliant for the garden. As the heavier mass approaches from the South, we're hearing occasional rumbles of thunder. Nothing more right now.  Cat is unhappy!

[BenFreeman_91]

Forecast for my area keeps changing every hour, but the sun is breaking through as I expect the temperature to quickly rise to 24 / 25.

[Norfolk Sheep]

You have to laugh, just got pinged by an app that said "thunderstorms in your area now!"

Which area would that be? Europe? The planet? 

[staplehurst]

The 00z Nottingham ascent modified for 23.5C with a dew point of 17C yields 2,000 J/kg CAPE. The 05z Larkhill ascent is essentially saturated through much of the mid/upper troposphere (indicative of the extensive rain across southern England at the moment from higher level cloud) but still yields 1,500 J/kg CAPE with 23C / 17C. It also has a decent southwest flow at jet stream level, which - assuming convection punches this tall - would help vent thunderstorms at anvil level. PWAT of 31mm at Larkhill, weak steering flow, large CAPE and saturated profiles (meaning less rain evaporates before reaching the ground), low cloud bases etc all point to slow-moving torrential downpours and a real flash flooding concern - especially if they occur over an urban environment and/or train over similar areas.

This does remind me of 16 August 2020 and 25 July 2021 in some respects, in which there was a lot of lightning detected on radars but visually you didn't see a great deal. 

We've already reached 25C in East Anglia where some hazy sunshine occasionally breaks through, and there is already a marked convergence zone running from Norwich down to Cambridge and Luton. Once the first cells develop they will then heavily dictate how the rest of the afternoon pans out by altering the environment with their cold pools and outflow etc.

Remember, it is only 10z and most storms at this time of year often develop mid-late afternoon and evening, sometimes well into the evening (thinking August 2020). Yes there is extensive cloud, but the models expected extensive cloud and yet still break out a tonne of heavy showers and thunderstorms.

And for those in Kent/Sussex and perhaps Essex, there may be even some more activity overnight drifting inland from the Channel. 

Edited August 16, 2022 by staplehurst

[matt111]

The torrential shower that just went though here produced a single flash of lightning.

[Biggin]

Well lively storms to the  east of UK

Blitzortung.org - Live Lightning Map

Blitzortung.org - Live Lightning Map

[Ben Sainsbury]

Sferics just south of Reading. Radar looking a lot more appealing now than an hour ago, as the murk drifts away northwards.

[Liam Burge]

12 minutes ago, staplehurst said:

The 00z Nottingham ascent modified for 23.5C with a dew point of 17C yields 2,000 J/kg CAPE. The 05z Larkhill ascent is essentially saturated through much of the mid/upper troposphere (indicative of the extensive rain across southern England at the moment from higher level cloud) but still yields 1,500 J/kg CAPE with 23C / 17C. It also has a decent southwest flow at jet stream level, which - assuming convection punches this tall - would help vent thunderstorms at anvil level. PWAT of 31mm at Larkhill, weak steering flow, large CAPE and saturated profiles (meaning less rain evaporates before reaching the ground), low cloud bases etc all point to slow-moving torrential downpours and a real flash flooding concern - especially if they occur over an urban environment and/or train over similar areas.

This does remind me of 16 August 2020 and 25 July 2021 in some respects, in which there was a lot of lightning detected on radars but visually you didn't see a great deal. 

We've already reached 25C in East Anglia where some hazy sunshine occasionally breaks through, and there is already a marked convergence zone running from Norwich down to Cambridge and Luton. Once the first cells develop they will then heavily dictate how the rest of the afternoon pans out by altering the environment with their cold pools and outflow etc.

Remember, it is only 10z and most storms at this time of year often develop mid-late afternoon and evening, sometimes well into the evening (thinking August 2020). Yes there is extensive cloud, but the models expected extensive cloud and yet still break out a tonne of heavy showers and thunderstorms.

And for those in Kent/Sussex and perhaps Essex, there may be even some more activity overnight drifting inland from the Channel. 

Looks like a very interesting set up for us down here in the south west!

[Turquoise]

2 hours ago, Skullzrulerz said:

What's the chances for more storms here in Cornwall today?

I would say 100%

[OdinSendTheWind]

4 minutes ago, Liam Burge said:

Looks like a very interesting set up for us down here in the south west!

Very muggy and grey here. Fingers crossed. 

[Eagle Eye]

Seen it before in Greece around a week ago, where it took till about 7 PM for a Storm to form and when it did it was a relatively small thunderstorm with maybe just a couple strikes but what it did do was when it collapsed and moved away, another one popped up from its cold outlflow as night fell producing lightning every couple seconds, then another Storm approached from the south, it was amazing and so Storms kept on going, even if a bit stop starty, from 7PM till half 11PM. I know it's not a great example but its the best I've got myself.

Earlier this year in the UK is another example for me, no Storms over us till half 2PM, then all of a sudden Storms for the next couple hours (albeit with little lightning visible but quite a lot of thunder could be heard) just kept popping up.

Edited August 16, 2022 by Eagle Eye

[Turquoise]

1 hour ago, SilverWolf said:

Apart from Scotland yesterday! 

England I meant lol

[camturbo]

9 minutes ago, Liam Burge said:

Looks like a very interesting set up for us down here in the south west!

Will it happen though that is the question 

[phil nw.]

A Milky grey sky here with the layer of altostratus.The odd splash of light rain and feeling muggy.An occasional glimpse of brightness.

Nothing dramatic as of yet but I see plenty of activity on the radar building further south so maybe more of us will join in the fun later.

[TomLO04]

Atmosphere looks primed for storms!!

Distant thunder heard to my south

[Biggin]

Sferics dying out in land