Storms and Convective discussion - 1st August 2022 onwards

[Jamie M]

Timelapse from the other day bit from a distance, shame they didn't hit head on but there'll be more eventually! 

[WeatherArc]

Gfs 18z run showing some hope for storms with some big hailers around for the first weekend of September. I think 2.75 on the soundings is around baseball size? Im currently very storm starved so would take anything like that in a heartbeat 

 

Edited August 26, 2022 by WeatherArc

[UnderTheAnvil]

13 hours ago, WeatherArc said:

Gfs 18z run showing some hope for storms with some big hailers around for the first weekend of September. I think 2.75 on the soundings is around baseball size? Im currently very storm starved so would take anything like that in a heartbeat 

 

I'll believe that when I see it lmaooo 

[wimblettben]

I wonder what places Miserable Marla will choose to play with next will be?

I hope we get some chances of more widespread thunder potential in September as it has been quite isolated and infrequent so far this year for most people and it would be nice for more people to get some thunder before Autumn and Winter proper arrive and severely lower the chances of getting any thundery weather.

[ChannelThunder]

The model runs have indeed looked very interesting going into September. Usually high pressure lingers at this time of year, but if we can get that low down between Ireland and Biscay as the models do, and have it stuck there for a few days, there'd be plenty of storm opportunities.

[Coops241180]

Theres no forecast for anything today. But sometimes when I see skies like these I get over optimistic

[Coops241180]

18 minutes ago, Coops241180 said:

Theres no forecast for anything today. But sometimes when I see skies like these I get over optimistic

 maybe... just maybe  

[The Tall Weatherman]

The NMM are going for 3 consecutive days straight of storm mayhem from Friday-Monday, it is hard to pin it down yet  obviously but considering low pressure is not to far away and Cape is a plenty it could play out. The ECMWF is showing something interesting as well on Saturday and Sunday.

 

Edited August 29, 2022 by The Tall Weatherman

[Stormhog]

Better late than never: Here's that timelapse of the shelf cloud making landfall, taken from Seaford the other day.

Looks a bit odd as I'd only taken 11 shots, had to make the best of it.

[Turquoise]

3 hours ago, The Tall Weatherman said:

The NMM are going for 3 consecutive days straight of storm mayhem from Friday-Monday, it is hard to pin it down yet  obviously but considering low pressure is not to far away and Cape is a plenty it could play out. The ECMWF is showing something interesting as well on Saturday and Sunday.

 

I did get excited......until I saw that its the South East AGAIN in line. Silly me for thinking it might be different this time. Doh.

[andy989]

Been pretty warm here today with the sun out and the sky has been bubbling up nicely with convective clouds. Big spots of rain now. Nothing was forecast 

[Wivenswold]

A little reminder from this Map from The Met Office. If you want to improve your chances of seeing storms, move to the darkest blue area. 

[Thunders]

5 hours ago, Wivenswold said:

A little reminder from this Map from The Met Office. If you want to improve your chances of seeing storms, move to the darkest blue area. 

I mean, with climate change I think it will start growing and shifting

Edited August 29, 2022 by Thunders

[ChannelThunder]

 

6 hours ago, Wivenswold said:

A little reminder from this Map from The Met Office. If you want to improve your chances of seeing storms, move to the darkest blue area. 

Here are the last three calendar years' thunderstorm days, thanks to Convective Weather ( @staplehurst)

 

I love seeing this more localised data year-on-year, and of course, add it all together over many more years and broadly speaking, you'd match the Met Office map there!

Edited August 29, 2022 by ResonantChannelThunder

[davehsug]

59 minutes ago, ResonantChannelThunder said:

 

Here are the last three calendar years' thunderstorm days, thanks to Convective Weather ( @staplehurst)

 

I love seeing this more localised data year-on-year, and of course, add it all together over many more years and broadly speaking, you'd match the Met Office map there!

Surprised to see so little, and sometimes none in the North West of Scotland & The Hebrides. I would have thought thunder was quite common in winter from heavy showers? Certainly a good North Westerly seems to always have a few strikes on the detector sites.

[Turquoise]

11 hours ago, ResonantChannelThunder said:

 

Here are the last three calendar years' thunderstorm days, thanks to Convective Weather ( @staplehurst)

 

I love seeing this more localised data year-on-year, and of course, add it all together over many more years and broadly speaking, you'd match the Met Office map there!

Not quite accurate. I live in Cheshire and according to that chart we have had around 5 or 6 thunder days last year alone. Its wrong.

We havnt had a single rumble in over 2 years let alone a storm.

[MP-R]

14 hours ago, Thunders said:

I mean, with climate change I think it will start growing and shifting

Having lived in that dark blue area for a while, I was thoroughly disappointed... and didn't see much difference with where I live now!

[MP-R]

3 hours ago, Azuremoon2 said:

Not quite accurate. I live in Cheshire and according to that chart we have had around 5 or 6 thunder days last year alone. Its wrong.

We havnt had a single rumble in over 2 years let alone a storm.

Yes the maps aren't completely accurate... I'm guessing they're generated from radar returns and lightning detector data or something... They're 2 thunder days short for my area in 2019 and 2020, but give me 1 more thunder day for 2021 (which was a poor year for thunder).

[Allseasons-Si]

A long way off i know but from next Monday onwards is starting to look interesting with that low parked to our W/SW,there could be numerous thunder days next week.

 

[Harry]

The weather app on my phone is very keen on storms early part of next week. Monday, Wednesday and Thursday currently

[Rufus Butterfield]

1 hour ago, Harry said:

The weather app on my phone is very keen on storms early part of next week. Monday, Wednesday and Thursday currently

Looking like quite widespread activity at this point

[TJS1998Tom]

Saturday and Monday showing a good potential of thundery showers for us

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

On 29/08/2022 at 15:42, Wivenswold said:

A little reminder from this Map from The Met Office. If you want to improve your chances of seeing storms, move to the darkest blue area. 

Lol I’ve run out of legs for you to pull, lemme go get a spider

[Dami]

8 hours ago, Allseasons-si said:

A long way off i know but from next Monday onwards is starting to look interesting with that low parked to our W/SW,there could be numerous thunder days next week.

 

And i won't get any of them 

But to be fair, school is starting and the school has a dirty big pylon near by that i wouldn't want to be under if it did storm. 

[ChannelThunder]

Plenty going on on this morning's ECM. One of those runs that's too good to be true, storm wise. If it came off though...