Storms and Convective discussion - 1st August 2022 onwards

[Mapantz]

9 minutes ago, ResonantChannelThunder said:

but given its September now I question how prolific lightning activity may be. Dan's forecast in the morning should shed some good light on it.

Never write a thunderstorm off in September!

 

There was an absolute cracker here that night.

Just a max of 20°C during the day.

[Stormhog]

17 hours ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

 

Only just seen this... Absolutely amazing photo there, what a memory being down there in Seaford! 

Thanks  Yes it was worth the wait, I'd nearly given up and gone home.

[ChannelThunder]

Being slap bang in the middle of a small MDT, and a very encouraging UKV, are nice surprises to wake up to this morning! Time to get those camera batteries charged up!

[MP-R]

9 hours ago, ResonantChannelThunder said:

Been keeping an eye on that. Looks promising but given its September now I question how prolific lightning activity may be. Dan's forecast in the morning should shed some good light on it.

Many of the best shows have been in September so don’t lose faith just yet.

[Tamsin]

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/

The convective forecast is up.  Reading between the lines it sounds like a forgettable day of thundery rain

[Thunderspotter]

I'm in the moderate zone, so i'll keep an eye on it.

Looks like my day for a good storm would be either tomorrow or Thursday.

4 minutes ago, Tamsin said:

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/

The convective forecast is up.  Reading between the lines it sounds like a forgettable day of thundery rain

 

[ChannelThunder]

48 minutes ago, MP-R said:

Many of the best shows have been in September so don’t lose faith just yet.

I guess i'm kinda 'scarred' by the fact I've never chased in September and don't even recall the last thunderstorm I witnessed! Usually, Septembers are a high pressure fest (my birthday is on the 23rd and it's basically always been a sunny day for as long as I remember, with 2020 being the only exception to that rule!)

[MP-R]

24 minutes ago, ResonantChannelThunder said:

I guess i'm kinda 'scarred' by the fact I've never chased in September and don't even recall the last thunderstorm I witnessed! Usually, Septembers are a high pressure fest (my birthday is on the 23rd and it's basically always been a sunny day for as long as I remember, with 2020 being the only exception to that rule!)

It’s worth it if you can. There were some corkers around in 2016, 2014, 2010, 2006 and 2005 in particular. Last year, our most vivid lightning display came on 28th September. Ironically, perhaps the most prolific September lightning show came in one of the few true anticyclonic ones… 2014! That was mega.

Funny you should say that about your birthday… the wettest day I’ve ever recorded is the 24th in 2012.

[Liam Burge]

Estofex is saying a potential tornado outbreak scenario is possible over Ireland and the South coasts of England. They've issued a level 2 and their wording is 'The assessment of the main hazard (straight-line winds or tornadoes) depends on the mesoscale structure of the rainbands and needs to be left to the nowcasting time frame. In case mesoscale vortices develop, the expected very low cloud bases (just a few hundred meters above sea level) could even support an outbreak of several tornadoes.'

[ChannelThunder]

JFF, but I've never seen so many lightning symbols on my BBC location forecast. 37 of them over the next 3/4 days in fact, and none of those are for tonight 

[Harry]

I’ve seen a few times now comments along the lines of “shame it’s September…” implying any storms won’t be as good. It was only 9 days ago we had storms that were extremely active in terms of lightning. Two storms three hours apart kicking out 2 lightning flashes every 3 seconds at their peak!

I’ve seen some belters in September over the years - if we can get the cooler autumnal air over-riding residual summer heat and humidity (and there’ll be no shortage of that in the next 24 hours), then I see little reason to be pessimistic. 

UKV resembles a classic plume breakdown for C/S/E England (although I’m just maybe too far to the east) while AROME is on the same page. My trusty go to NMM is a little meagre on the CAPE though, signalling IOW and surrounding areas may be preferred spots for southern areas for storms. 

Could be an interesting night for some.

[Coops241180]

Think there are a bunch of reasons to believe the next week will bring some decent storms for some..

a relatively long warm summer (if dry...) must put some energy  into the atlantic somewhere.. and with a bit of luck we're getting air from a more westerly direction so should bring some of that moisture in.. rather than the southerly's that've just brought all the dried out air from the continent..

forecast says it's going to be high 20s here tomorrow - feels like it's teeing something up.. but hard to say what exactly..

[Ben Sainsbury]

Definitely benefitting from markedly above-average SSTs too. Might be a thundery week starting tonight.

[camturbo]

11 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

Definitely benefitting from markedly above-average SSTs too. Might be a thundery week starting tonight.

Defo potential ingredients seem to be there or thereabouts,but will it produce the goods or a mess. Radar watching and updates from fellow stormlovers is the key.

[Skullzrulerz]

2 hours ago, Thunderspotter said:

I'm in the moderate zone, so i'll keep an eye on it.

Looks like my day for a good storm would be either tomorrow or Thursday.

 

What's the black line mean?

[WeatherArc]

An interesting forecast from Estofex putting Ireland and parts of Western Wales under a level 2 Warning

Looking at the UKV a band of heavy rain/thunderstorms will make its way through the uk and Ireland at around 10pm, However a lack of CAPE may impede how electrically active this system can become  

However, should this system be able to remain active some strong shear and SRH values as well as very low cloud bases (under 50m in some parts of wales) could help create/enhance the threat of QLCS tornados within the line, however once again the lack of CAPE partially puts me off this idea. Still this definitely looks like an interesting event that could help start a week of (hopefully) some good storms, im not sure how much the above average SSTs will help this event or whether the line will even have enough energy to produce lightning but i will keep an eye on the radar. Hoping everyone here will get some good storms this week 

[The PIT]

LOL our local forecast has gone nuts with storms from five o'clock until eight. Won't happen but first time I've seen the computed generated graphs have such a long time period.

[wimblettben]

4 minutes ago, WeatherArc said:

An interesting forecast from Estofex putting Ireland and parts of Western Wales under a level 2 Warning

Looking at the UKV a band of heavy rain/thunderstorms will make its way through the uk and Ireland at around 10pm, However a lack of CAPE may impede how electrically active this system can become  

However, should this system be able to remain active some strong shear and SRH values as well as very low cloud bases (under 50m in some parts of wales) could help create/enhance the threat of QLCS tornados within the line, however once again the lack of CAPE partially puts me off this idea. Still this definitely looks like an interesting event that could help start a week of (hopefully) some good storms, im not sure how much the above average SSTs will help this event or whether the line will even have enough energy to produce lightning but i will keep an eye on the radar. Hoping everyone here will get some good storms this week 

Haven't had any thunder so far from the rain or showers the last few day's so am hoping that tonight bucks that trend.

Mention of lack of cape and that is making me worry though, we haven't had any night storms so far this year and this stuff tonight could finally give us that. I wan't lightning and I don't just wan't it to be a repeat of last night where the only risk was heavy rain with some strong gusts of wind or a tornado risk.

[Allseasons-Si]

2 hours ago, Liam Burge said:

Estofex is saying a potential tornado outbreak scenario is possible over Ireland and the South coasts of England. They've issued a level 2 and their wording is 'The assessment of the main hazard (straight-line winds or tornadoes) depends on the mesoscale structure of the rainbands and needs to be left to the nowcasting time frame. In case mesoscale vortices develop, the expected very low cloud bases (just a few hundred meters above sea level) could even support an outbreak of several tornadoes.'

 

15 minutes ago, WeatherArc said:

An interesting forecast from Estofex putting Ireland and parts of Western Wales under a level 2 Warning

Looking at the UKV a band of heavy rain/thunderstorms will make its way through the uk and Ireland at around 10pm, However a lack of CAPE may impede how electrically active this system can become  

However, should this system be able to remain active some strong shear and SRH values as well as very low cloud bases (under 50m in some parts of wales) could help create/enhance the threat of QLCS tornados within the line, however once again the lack of CAPE partially puts me off this idea. Still this definitely looks like an interesting event that could help start a week of (hopefully) some good storms, im not sure how much the above average SSTs will help this event or whether the line will even have enough energy to produce lightning but i will keep an eye on the radar. Hoping everyone here will get some good storms this week 

This has already been mentioned by @Liam Burge up the page,it is for tornadoes

Edited September 4, 2022 by Allseasons-si

[Thunderspotter]

38 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

What's the black line mean?

Sorry for my late reply.

This is what the black line means:

SEVERITY:

We classify a severe thunderstorm as one that poses a significant threat to life and/or property, using the criteria below. If any of the following criteria are forecast, a SVR threat level may be issued to highlight the areas at risk of severe convective weather. This does not necessarily mean severe convective weather will occur in all parts of the highlighted area, but it indicates the potential for such an occurrence, even if quite localised.

[Chris.R]

Big upgrade of CAPE values on WRF 06Z for my location this afternoon and evening. Doesn’t show any precip breaking out though which suggests capping but the CIN value is close to 0 so not sure.
Sun is out Strong now getting good insolation which is a good sign.

[ChannelThunder]

Tasty Arome for midnight!

I haven't got a lot of trust for this model right now, but it's backed up by UKV in this case. 

It looks to me like thunderstorms, elevated in nature, will begin to initiate off of the Cherbourg peninsular/surrounds from 22z. These are going to have a NNE track and as mentioned in Dan's forecast, should be at the peak of their powers around Hants/Sussex/Surrey/Berks etc.

An interesting night ahead, and more to come this week by the looks of it! I will hold my hand up and say that I posted nearly two weeks ago saying I thought the season was over. In many a year, I'd be right, but this particular set-up this week has quashed that! But let's see if it's any good before getting too carried away...

Edited September 4, 2022 by ResonantChannelThunder

[Supacell]

September can absolutely produce the goods when it comes to thunderstorms. The set up has to be right though. The set up this week is a good one for thunderstorms.  This is my 19th year chasing storms and I have seen many storms in September and when they occur they don't seem to lack intensity because its September. Bear in mind also its been an unusually warm/hot summer and one of the warmest August's ever. I am unsure how much that would impact it really, but I do know that European countries who usually have better summers than us, usually get some absolute belters in September.

One of the best storms I have ever seen was on the night of the 15/16th September 2016 and I narrowly missed a huge storm just two days before on the 13th September across the Peak District into Yorkshire and Manchester.

[Mapantz]

A dew point of 18°C

Always helpful!

[andy989]

Could be interesting in for us in west Wales tonight. Strong winds this morning took the gazebo down the lane and a few hefty oak branches are down.