Storms and Convective discussion - 1st August 2022 onwards

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

6 minutes ago, WeatherArc said:

Just seen a report about a tornado on the Isle of Wight earlier on today, can anyone confirm? 

Yes there is a photo on UKWW (but you need to be a member to access the convective forecast page that it is on)

TORNADO CAUGHT ON CAMERA MOVING BETWEEN BRADING AND BEMBRIDGE

WWW.ISLANDECHO.CO.UK

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Video footage has caught the terrifying moment a tornado developed on the outskirts of Brading and began moving towards Bembridge. Shortly before 13:00 this afternoon (Tuesday), this video was...

 

[Mapantz]

UKV looks to show your typical sunshine & showers day for tomorrow. Nothing particularly exciting.

I think the best has now passed, particularly for here.

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

5 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

6 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

UKV looks to show your typical sunshine & showers day for tomorrow. Nothing particularly exciting.

I think the best has now passed, particularly for here.

Thursday and Friday look quite good but all daytime stuff I think. Evening storms are the best I’m so gutted I missed yesterday, especially now tonight is turning out to be a such a soggy octopus

[Jamie M]

Video of the storms that took me a fair while to edit down. There is a bit of censored swearing from about 20 minutes onwards so just a little warning. 

[Southern Storm]

This is photo of the cells just about to reach the IOW  

No wonder they are not electrical, low tops by the look of them

[ChannelThunder]

38 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Thursday and Friday look quite good but all daytime stuff I think. Evening storms are the best I’m so gutted I missed yesterday, especially now tonight is turning out to be a such a soggy octopus

Agreed. Some daytime treats in store for many at the end of the week I feel. 

After that, a lull for most of the weekend. ECM shows further pushes of energy from the south that could give us more fun, but GFS and GEM swiftly get us into an anonymous maritime flow.

[wimblettben]

One thing I would like to point out for my location during this thunderstorm chance period is that yes a few isolated spots may have had something in Wales these last couple of day's but I have to say that thats not saying much considering that most of the whole of the area has been under decent levels of warnings for quite a number of day's now.

In the last few years that I have been living here we have had periods in the past that had 30% or 50% risks like we have had in the last few day's and each day when those level of warnings were given most of the whole of Wales was effected by something at one point or another.

It's by far been probably one of the most annoying periods of storm watching I have known in my life. Only thing that I can hope for now is something over the next few day's as I don't think I can stay up late for any possible thunder tonight because I am knackered already from staying up for the total no shows these last few nights have brought.

Problem also is I am not as bothered about the next few day's as I was about the Sunday and Monday just gone because the ones possibly coming next will be daytime storms if anything comes and there have not been any night storms here this year just like last year and night storms are by far the best. The last time anything decent was around here at night was in August 2020!!!!!

[TallPaul]

 

 

2 minutes ago, TallPaul said:

That's unlucky...and fair to say you're tired and teasy as a consequence?

I share your frustration's!

 

 

30 minutes ago, wimblettben said:

One thing I would like to point out for my location during this thunderstorm chance period is that yes a few isolated spots may have had something in Wales these last couple of day's but I have to say that thats not saying much considering that most of the whole of the area has been under decent levels of warnings for quite a number of day's now.

In the last few years that I have been living here we have had periods in the past that had 30% or 50% risks like we have had in the last few day's and each day when those level of warnings were given most of the whole of Wales was effected by something at one point or another.

It's by far been probably one of the most annoying periods of storm watching I have known in my life. Only thing that I can hope for now is something over the next few day's as I don't think I can stay up late for any possible thunder tonight because I am knackered already from staying up for the total no shows these last few nights have brought.

Problem also is I am not as bothered about the next few day's as I was about the Sunday and Monday just gone because the ones possibly coming next will be daytime storms if anything comes and there have not been any night storms here this year just like last year and night storms are by far the best. The last time anything decent was around here at night was in August 2020!!!!!

 

Edited September 6, 2022 by TallPaul

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 hour ago, Mapantz said:

UKV looks to show your typical sunshine & showers day for tomorrow. Nothing particularly exciting.

I think the best has now passed, particularly for here.

If it was just a few weeks earlier, days like tomorrow would have produced some widespread storms across the country. As it is it'll more likely be the sharp shower kind of day, as you rightly point out.

Edited September 6, 2022 by CreweCold

[TallPaul]

As storms go, has anyone noticed the epic storm situated over the Montpellier region, southern France today? It's been virtually stationary since 1pm today and the sferics are just insane! Courtesy of observing Blitzortung...strikes must be in the region of 5 digits by now, and still no signs of this storm weakening... Wow

[Zak M]

Better late than never I guess.

[Sprites]

4 hours ago, TallPaul said:

As storms go, has anyone noticed the epic storm situated over the Montpellier region, southern France today? It's been virtually stationary since 1pm today and the sferics are just insane! Courtesy of observing Blitzortung...strikes must be in the region of 5 digits by now, and still no signs of this storm weakening... Wow

It's still going , maybe the Pyrenees or central massive have helped? 

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

6 hours ago, TallPaul said:

As storms go, has anyone noticed the epic storm situated over the Montpellier region, southern France today? It's been virtually stationary since 1pm today and the sferics are just insane! Courtesy of observing Blitzortung...strikes must be in the region of 5 digits by now, and still no signs of this storm weakening... Wow

And still it’s there!!! 
An hour later I come back and it’s still going absolutely nuts!! 

Edited September 7, 2022 by East_England_Stormchaser91

[sunnijim]

Some quickfire pop ups in the last 30 mins over the water.

The M.O app ( I know) has gone storm crazy for 24hrs starting at 1600 here!

[Supacell]

Whilst the new Lake Catatumbo produces the goods just south of Montpellier to Marseille I wonder what the day ahead brings to these shores.

My current thinking is that widespread heavy and thundery showers will develop late morning onwards and could occur pretty much anywhere. We have lost the deep layer shear element and so organised/severe storms seem unlikely. UKV indicates some large CAPE values, WRF and GFS a bit more conservative but still plenty enough. I think a day of pulse type storms and showers is on the cards. Any showers could produce a lot of rain in a short space of time and be accompanied by gusty winds, hail and lightning. 

Some models are showing a slightly more organised area of storms moving into the south coast and then into the southeast and East Anglia this evening. Lightning activity may carry on near to western coasts throughout the night.

[minus10]

1 hour ago, sunnijim said:

Some quickfire pop ups in the last 30 mins over the water.

The M.O app ( I know) has gone storm crazy for 24hrs starting at 1600 here!

I love 'quickfire popups'......

Saltdene and Rottingdene are great places to observe storms in the channel. As i kid i used to stay with my parents in a guest house on the cliff front at Rottingdean with amazing views of the sea. We used to walk on that coastal path shown in your second picture...seeing it has brought it all back for me Must have been incredible these last few days with the sea views of the storms....

...radar showing more activity coming in from ssw so heres hoping for today...

[wimblettben]

Looking like we have already had over half of our chance of getting something gone now with most risk of getting thunder only for today, tonight and tomorrow.

Left feeling very dissapointed about this recent thundery period as we have completely missed out on anything over every day that had a risk for something.

Just hoping that the next 24-36 hours finally changes that!

Edited September 7, 2022 by wimblettben

[Harry]

UKV suggesting some more organised downpours across the SE this evening, consistent with a marked uptick in CAPE showing on WRF-NMM…I’ll be keeping an eye peeled this evening therefore.

Widespread CAPE tomorrow and again Friday so will be interesting to see how it pans out 

[Harry]

Convective Weather

WWW.CONVECTIVEWEATHER.CO.UK

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Forecasting thunderstorms and severe convective weather across the British Isles and Ireland for up to the next 5 days.

 

[Gordon Webb]

for those who don't want to click the link

Day 1 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Wed 07 Sep 2022 - 05:59 UTC Thu 08 Sep 2022

ISSUED 08:35 UTC Wed 07 Sep 2022

ISSUED BY: Dan

The upper low to the southwest of Ireland will finally begin to migrate eastwards across the British Isles on Wednesday. Once again, cool air aloft atop a fairly humid low-level airmass will create widely unstable profiles, driving another day with widespread scattered showers and some thunderstorms. Tall, skinny CAPE will probably limit the lightning potential in some areas, but certainly scope for locally high rainfall accumulations and the associated risk of surface water flooding. A broad SLGT has been issued, but there will very likely be large areas that remain void of lightning. Showers may merge into longer spells of showery rain in places, resulting in rather saturated profiles and reducing the lightning potential. Some more organised clusters/lines of heavy showers/thunderstorms could evolve over the English Channel during the late afternoon and through the evening and night hours, as PVA rounding the base of the increasingly negatively-tilted upper trough engages with the residual >14C 850hPa Theta-W plume over France. This activity may also affect the eastern side East Anglia late evening and after midnight, although by this stage some concern exists about upscale growth into broader areas of heavy, showery rain that may reduce the lightning potential. Further thunderstorms may also affect eastern Scotland later in the

 

[lottiekent]

2 hours ago, sunnijim said:

Some quickfire pop ups in the last 30 mins over the water.

The M.O app ( I know) has gone storm crazy for 24hrs starting at 1600 here!

Same here! Shows storms all of daylight hours tomorrow. Unsurprisingly I am sceptical of the forecast ha ha

[Southern Storm]

Afternoon storm fans 

It's looks like areas to the east of the IOW are in a favourable position for any possible storms that might develop this evening 

Unfortunately, this is not on my home patch and I'm eager to make the most of any opportunities that come our way before this season finally comes to an end.. 

Can anybody recommend a spot that offers some cover from the elements, with great views? Preferably all around? as I am willing to travel this evening, but I don't have a clue where to place myself. Any ideas would be much appreciated! 

 

 

[Marcus_surfer]

This couldnt be any more inaccurate if it tried

[Dami]

11 hours ago, Zak M said:

Better late than never I guess.

Thanks for confirming that 1) that was thunder i heard and 2) i feel asleep and missed the rest.

 

[Lynxus]

10 minutes ago, Marcus_surfer said:

This couldnt be any more inaccurate if it tried

LOL.

Yeah you're doomed.

The second BBC or Metoffice was you gonna get storms... It doesn't happen.