Winter 2022-23 early thoughts - general chat

[Don]

25 minutes ago, Beanz said:

Snow has always been hit and miss down in the south, but the noticeable change in our winters is not snow fall, it’s the less cold conditions and lack of frosts.  I would say, that’s been a fairly recently noticeable thing too, probably only in the last years. 

Yes I agree, it's been the lack of frosts in recent years which been more notable than the lack of snow.

[Sunny76]

On 27/10/2022 at 17:20, northwestsnow said:

Exeter sticking with colder and drier mid month with bits of rain in the south.

That's- NAO so clearly the signal is maintained ..

Going to be strange watching the world cup with Fog and frost outside the window !!

Let’s be honest though, it’s going to be a poor World Cup.

I think holding it in a country that has no long football tradition, kind of writes it off as a proper tournament. 
 

Not only that, but the World Cup should have been held during summer of 2022, and either a European or South American nation should’ve been hosts.

Just another dirty deal with backhanders and corruption with FIFA.

[Sunny76]

5 hours ago, johncam said:

Temps definitely on the up both winter and summer , never had a snowless winter till the 2000's , had 5 now , don't know gow bad it is in the south but would imagine worse than up here . The seasons are all blending into one, warm  spring now staring end of Feb and summer dragging onto end of October now , bloody depressing 

Yeah but sometimes summer isn’t really summer for several years. We get 2-3 weeks of nice warm or hot weather, and then it’s cloudy and damp for weeks on end. 
 

2022 was different, as we had more sunshine. 19,20, 21 were either mediocre or poor. 

[Sceptical]

4 hours ago, Don said:

Yes I agree, it's been the lack of frosts in recent years which been more notable than the lack of snow.

By 2040, the south of England will struggle to get frosts most years, let alone snow. Scotlands mountains will see a marked decline in snow days and snow depths.

UK winters have changed, and will continue to change.

Will there still be skiing in Scotland by 2080? A data scientist crunches the numbers | The Scotsman

WWW.GOOGLE.COM

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Readers with long memories and more than a passing interest in the future of Scottish skiing might recall a Final...

 

Edited October 29, 2022 by Sceptical

[bluearmy]

9 hours ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

That Volcanic eruption was somewhat incredibly unique (I called it but admit I don’t know if it’s  ‘the one’)….and the incredible cold in the Southern Hemisphere….linked or.not.  I don’t know…jury’s out…but some coincidence.  Let’s see what happens in this NH winter….forget UK…we mean very little in GW theory….

There are record warm temps, but they are getting outstripped by record cold….just not the UK

 

BFTP

What goes up must come down ? We know that if somewhere is unseasonably hot that somewhere else must be on the ‘other side’.  that other side can be more localised (in which case you will see potential record cold) or over a large area in which case it’s just chilly. 

My take I that the bar is being raised on the ups and not quite being matched by the downs …. Hence the slow average rise. …….

Edited October 29, 2022 by bluearmy

[January Snowstorm]

3 hours ago, Sceptical said:

By 2040, the south of England will struggle to get frosts most years, let alone snow. Scotlands mountains will see a marked decline in snow days and snow depths.

UK winters have changed, and will continue to change.

Will there still be skiing in Scotland by 2080? A data scientist crunches the numbers | The Scotsman

WWW.GOOGLE.COM

---

Readers with long memories and more than a passing interest in the future of Scottish skiing might recall a Final...

 

In my nearly 50 years on the planet, I have seen more snow in the last 15 than the previous 35. The 90s were almost entirely mild. 2009 and 2010 were remarkable to me and then 3 or 4 years ago to see massive snow drifts at the end of February. October and early November have always been mild and snowfree where I live so very little change in 50 years!

[Chesil View]

3 hours ago, Sceptical said:

By 2040, the south of England will struggle to get frosts most years, let alone snow. Scotlands mountains will see a marked decline in snow days and snow depths.

UK winters have changed, and will continue to change.

Will there still be skiing in Scotland by 2080? A data scientist crunches the numbers | The Scotsman

WWW.GOOGLE.COM

---

Readers with long memories and more than a passing interest in the future of Scottish skiing might recall a Final...

 

I,m always somewhat wary of scientific reports suggesting the death of frost and snow. More especially so after Dr Viner's similar musings back in early 2001. Since which my weather station located within a few miles of the channel coast at the time recorded some of its snowiest months on record and set several new minimum temp station records.

By the way I,m not denying climate change in any way.

Edited October 29, 2022 by Chesil View

[SteveB]

In my little part of the world,  snow is a very rare thing indeed. 2009 and 2018 aside, every other winter has either been snowless or the odd day where snow has been falling but not settling or settling but gone within a few hours. I could probably count on two hands the amount of times that's happened over the last 13yrs.

Frosts seem to come later in the Winter, and some of the frostiest times are Feb/March time.

Gone are the days of frontal snow. Last time was the early 80's

I can't see anything changing soon, infact probably even less snow and frost is the most probable outcome. 

[saintkip]

Since 2009 I’ve had numerous big snow  events here, before that you’d have to go back to the mid 90’s for anything interesting. I know the world is warming but every time I see a scientific report on no snow or higher temps in the near future the graphs go off the scale after about 10 years instead of a steady decrease/increase. 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

feel some records going again this year! last year was the tropical new years day, every setup now is less cold than same setup say 30 or so years ago, last Feb E'ly sucked as only gave wet snow,

tropical maritime air feel now could be 16-18, rather than 12-13

[SteveB]

14 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

feel some records going again this year! last year was the tropical new years day, every setup now is less cold than same setup say 30 or so years ago, last Feb E'ly sucked as only gave wet snow,

tropical maritime air feel now could be 16-18, rather than 12-13

Agree!

This year I'm focusing on how warm and wet it's going to get,  rather than chase fantasy BFTE or polar lows that never happen, but are continually shown in the far reaches of FI.

 

[johncam]

4 hours ago, Sceptical said:

By 2040, the south of England will struggle to get frosts most years, let alone snow. Scotlands mountains will see a marked decline in snow days and snow depths.

UK winters have changed, and will continue to change.

Will there still be skiing in Scotland by 2080? A data scientist crunches the numbers | The Scotsman

WWW.GOOGLE.COM

---

Readers with long memories and more than a passing interest in the future of Scottish skiing might recall a Final...

 

Really sad mate , I love Aviemore area and have visited the last 40 years or so and had some magical  times in winter visits 

[damianslaw]

57 minutes ago, SteveB said:

Agree!

This year I'm focusing on how warm and wet it's going to get,  rather than chase fantasy BFTE or polar lows that never happen, but are continually shown in the far reaches of FI.

 

Think there are short memories here, late Feb 18 easterly was quite exceptional, April 21 was one of coldest minima wise on record, yes chances of cold seem slimmer, but they haven't gone away completely.

Reading some posts on here, may need to start a winter moan thread before its started!

Edited October 29, 2022 by damianslaw

[Sceptical]

48 minutes ago, johncam said:

Really sad mate , I love Aviemore area and have visited the last 40 years or so and had some magical  times in winter visits 

Last winter it snowed each month Nov - Feb up these parts. Snow depths were little more than a dusting. Only occasionally do we get significant snow 2021, 2018, 2010, 2009. Prior to 2009 very little snow fell from 2004 onwards.

Heat records are being broken regularly. When was the last time a cold record was beaten in the UK.....

[Sunny76]

2 hours ago, January Snowstorm said:

In my nearly 50 years on the planet, I have seen more snow in the last 15 than the previous 35. The 90s were almost entirely mild. 2009 and 2010 were remarkable to me and then 3 or 4 years ago to see massive snow drifts at the end of February. October and early November have always been mild and snowfree where I live so very little change in 50 years!

90-91, 93-94, 95-96 and part of 96-97 were cold.

The 90s weren’t always mild, but they did contain a period of better summers, and some very mild winters mixed in.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 minute ago, Sunny76 said:

90-91, 93-94, 95-96 and part of 96-97 were cold.

The 90s weren’t always mild, but they did contain a period of better summers, and some very mild winters mixed in.

maybe so in Ireland, but not here, 90's very snowy in general, change to mild winters seemed to happen towards late Jan '98

[Sunny76]

24 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Think there are short memories here, late Feb 18 easterly was quite exceptional, April 21 was one of coldest minima wise on record, yes chances of cold seem slimmer, but they haven't gone away completely.

Reading some posts on here, may need to start a winter moan thread before its started!

Yeah early 2021 had some very cold weather, despite not much snow in the south, we still managed to get a small covering. 
 

April was cold and sunny and May 2021 was cold and cloudy. It felt like winter, with some daytime maxes barely reaching 10-12c.

Feb 2018 was a very cold spell of weather. The windchill was around minus 9, even in central London.

1 minute ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

maybe so in Ireland, but not here, 90's very snowy in general, change to mild winters seemed to happen towards late Jan '98

It depends on the area, but my region had some very mild winters, 94/95, 97/98, 98/99 come to mind, but also a few cold ones.

[Sunny76]

15 minutes ago, Sceptical said:

Last winter it snowed each month Nov - Feb up these parts. Snow depths were little more than a dusting. Only occasionally do we get significant snow 2021, 2018, 2010, 2009. Prior to 2009 very little snow fell from 2004 onwards.

Heat records are being broken regularly. When was the last time a cold record was beaten in the UK.....

February 2021. Was the coldest night in the U.K. since sometime in the 1950s.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

5 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:

Yeah early 2021 had some very cold weather, despite not much snow in the south, we still managed to get a small covering. 
 

April was cold and sunny and May 2021 was cold and cloudy. It felt like winter, with some daytime maxes barely reaching 10-12c.

Feb 2018 was a very cold spell of weather. The windchill was around minus 9, even in central London.

It depends on the area, but my region had some very mild winters, 94/95, 97/98, 98/99 come to mind, but also a few cold ones.

98/99 first of the change to generally mild winters

[Sunny76]

1 hour ago, saintkip said:

Since 2009 I’ve had numerous big snow  events here, before that you’d have to go back to the mid 90’s for anything interesting. I know the world is warming but every time I see a scientific report on no snow or higher temps in the near future the graphs go off the scale after about 10 years instead of a steady decrease/increase. 

There was a period back in the 2000s when snow would still make an appearance, even during milder years, 2003,04 and 05 as an example. Then we had a cluster of colder years between 2008/09 until 2012/13. 
 

That period of weather gave some the impression we were stuck in a colder period, but it flipped back to warmer temps in summer of 2013.

Apart from 2018 and 2020/21, the direction of travel has been either close to average or mild winters. Snow will still fall, but it just seems much harder to achieve now, compared to even the 2000s and early 2010s.

[Sceptical]

2 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:

February 2021. Was the coldest night in the U.K. since sometime in the 1950s.

February 2021 was cold in NE Scotland, but it didn't break the cold record that's stood since 1995 and 1982. The coldest temperatures for England and Wales, recorded during the 1980s, still stand.

 

[Sunny76]

11 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

98/99 first of the change to generally mild winters

Yeah I noticed you said that before. 
 

But, what was the weather like in your area in 97/98?. It was a very mild winter down here.

8 minutes ago, Sceptical said:

February 2021 was cold in NE Scotland, but it didn't break the cold record that's stood since 1995 and 1982. The coldest temperatures for England and Wales, recorded during the 1980s, still stand.

 

Ok, but what I should have said was, it was still very cold.

Winter 2020/21 is not that long ago, and daytime highs in London around Christmas and new year were quite cold. I recorded 5c on a number of days, and even 2-3c, but with the windchill it felt like 0c.

[Earthshine]

I think frost free winters are a long way off.  It doesn't take much to get a frost.  Hell it dropped to 4°C at my weather station in South Wales during August, not far off grass frost territory.

[Sunny76]

5 minutes ago, Earthshine said:

I think frost free winters are a long way off.  It doesn't take much to get a frost.  Hell it dropped to 4°C at my weather station in South Wales during August, not far off grass frost territory.

I agree.

 

[Downburst]

There is a wealth of scientific reporting on snow or rain events at weather stations. In general in a warming climate there are sites at elevation for instance around the world where volume of snow has increased due to warmer and more moist fronts, but on average snow events are reducing and indeed globally so is rain on average across all stations combined. For north west Europe there is a definite reduction is snow over rain since 1979. Chart from published report in Nature shows ratio of snow event to rain events. Now there’s a guy on here who no doubt will say in Japan last year there was 2 meters of snow etc, but it’s not the volume, it’s the frequency of snow over rain at given sites, it’s falled about 5% globally, more so at temperate locations such as this. Very easy to trend that forward and predict for a given location, let’s say London and make a prediction for 30 years from now.