Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter

[Nick F]

58 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:

Its been said time and time again, 850's don't matter as much as they are told to be. What matters most is the surface conditions. If it's snowing that matters more than the fact that the uppers may be -4.

They will matter if the flow is over the North Sea, SSTs are 12-15C over the southern North Sea (some 2-3C above average) - that's going to take some deep cold (below -8C T850s) to overcome that to bring snow to lowland Britain, particularly eastern half of England. 

So if you want anything more than cold rain / drizzle / snizzle, you want to get those T850s cold as possible, ideally below -10C.

If we are in a stagnant cold airmass, with no strong flow off the sea and you have some fronts moving into it, then you can get away with higher T850s below 0C. But for the classic snow showers off the North Sea you ideally need below -8C.

12z EC looking cold next weekend / early next week in the brisk easterly flow, fortunately the low near Iberia doesn't move so far north as the 00z, so less WAA over Europe downstream and CAA via easterly flow further south over Northern Europe.

Edited November 28, 2022 by Nick F

[booferking]

Ecm with omega block incoming 

[johnny1972]

4 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Big improvement from ecm for next Monday. Yesterday's 192 compared to today's 168.

Normally charts at the 8-12 

[blizzard81]

Great 192 from ecm. Dare I say.... Primed? 

[sheikhy]

Looks to be major upgrade to ecm up to 192 hours!!dare i say the best of the evening!!!

[Snowy L]

Great ECM so far, Iberian low in a better place and spawns the Svalbard trigger low ready to drop the real cold air on us. Prefer this route to praying a low circles the entire Russian high from East Siberia to the UK taking about 10 days to do so. Once the high moves to Greenland, the russian high becomes more of a hindrance than a help, want that separation between them to happen asap.

Edited November 28, 2022 by Snowy L

[Nick F]

Now we just need the Russia high to do one and let the Greenland block do the work by pulling deep cold southwest from Svalbard.

Edited November 28, 2022 by Nick F

[Jackski4]

Does anyone have the 850s for 168 hrs pleaaaaase 

[Lukesluckybunch]

Lol is it gone miss us again On the ECM!

[BlueHedgehog074]

4 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

This the jackpot scenario and what we should aspire to see

The Low heights surrounding the Greenland High with those Vortexy pieces dropping South through Scandinavia seem to cage it in, and the squashy Low Pressure systems on the High’s Southern/South-Eastern flank stop it from sinking like a boat. No escape for you, High! And no greetings from the Western based -NAO!

[tight isobar]

Putting ya east/ west basing NAO into context... mass lobe enforcement will MAKE for allowance!.. minimal dynamics are soon to be for the bin 🗑.. December is inevitably going to be a month of memory!! The cards are falling ever more into jackpot drop!.. the layers @ tpv/ spv, jut wont deal and cheat here

[Day 10]

11 minutes ago, Continental Climate said:

I don't hold much hope for this upcoming cold spell. Probably going to be chilly this weekend with cold rain in the east. Possible snow over high ground. The solid synoptics of a couple of days ago seemed to have collapsed. My guess would be a west based NAO. Hints now of blocking giving way to more natural December fare. There has never been the slightest hint of an operational showing solid wintry potential within 168 always out past 10 - 12 days. Never gets closer does it. 

Sorry, natural December fare? Are you on the wind up?

And the solid Wintry potential you mention has and still is possible approaching week 2 of December.

[Geordiesnow]

I think the ECM run around 144 to 168 hours is one of those where on the face of it over the UK it does not look interesting but with slack winds, chilly air above and potential for PPN as there is a trough embedded over the UK it could produce some surprises. This is where the more modest uppers may not be an issue, still prefer if the air was a touch colder mind but its interesting too see. 

[Lukesluckybunch]

A bit of west based incoming I think days 9/10 on ECM..pretty decent run though overall..cold throughout!

[tight isobar]

Let the dripping commence!.. Edit: the Pacific lower basin is going to be imo the lord of dynamics

Edited November 28, 2022 by tight isobar

[weirpig]

Very good ecm  cold with -8 uppers for some areas of the country  a nice wintry feel for early December 

 

 

 

 

[bluearmy]

That ec op has a fair bit of snow across n england, especially hills 

our home grown cold pool under slack flow until we see the flow off the North Sea strengthen 

same theme as we end with he interaction of the Iberian low heading ne and the polar front sw. Very tricky to resolve 

[blizzard81]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

That ec op has a fair bit of snow across n england, especially hills 

our home grown cold pool under slack flow until we see the flow off the North Sea strengthen 

same theme as we end with he interaction of the Iberian low heading ne and the polar front sw. Very tricky to resolve 

Yep, I imagine some low temps on that ecm. 

[Guest]

ECM 240 - incoming

[sheikhy]

4 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

A bit of west based incoming I think days 9/10 on ECM..pretty decent run though overall..cold throughout!

Nothing west based about it buddy!as east based as you can get lol!also this what i cal the crewecold direct hit!!ecm cold from start to finish!!!what a cracker to end the day!!

[Ali1977]

Yes please 

[Cheshire Freeze]

Close to the perfect set up on the ECM at D10

 

[Snowy L]

 

Great day 10 chart. Really hoping the models have sniffed out a Svalbard Low trigger now. NAO, not west or east based, it's perfect based.

Edited November 28, 2022 by Snowy L

[Mike Poole]

ECM T240, shot at an early jackpot, but it missed!  Just want that a bit further east. 

Still should go on from there well…

 

Edited November 28, 2022 by Mike Poole

[Anthony Burden]

8 minutes ago, Nick F said:

They will matter if the flow is over the North Sea, SSTs are 12-15C over the southern North Sea (some 2-3C above average) - that's going to take some deep cold (below -8C T850s) to overcome that to bring snow to lowland Britain, particularly eastern half of England. 

So if you want anything more than cold rain / drizzle / snizzle, you want to get those T850s cold as possible, ideally below -10C.

If we are in a stagnant cold airmass, with no strong flow off the sea and you have some fronts moving into it, then you can get away with higher T850s below 0C. But for the classic snow showers off the North Sea you ideally need below -8C.

12z EC looking cold next weekend / early next week in the brisk easterly flow, fortunately the low near Iberia doesn't move so far north as the 00z, so less WAA over Europe downstream and CAA via easterly flow further south over Northern Europe.

Hi Nick,that northern blocking is something to behold to strong for that Iberian low to push north and colder dense air over time looks to be making progress over the U.K.