Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, chris55 said:

Absolute peach of a chart that! :0

I couldn’t possibly have posted that stonker of a chart could I. Silly me, I only analyse the ECM det.

[Vikos]

7 minutes ago, mbrothers said:

I think the relentless ott reactions to every run from some does get boring after a while . The overall picture is still fantastic. 

Absolutely  

Less is (sometimes) more…

[Cheshire Freeze]

9 minutes ago, mbrothers said:

I think the relentless ott reactions to every run from some does get boring after a while . The overall picture is still fantastic. 

I haven’t seen one OTT reaction in this thread…which can’t usually be said. No one has said the cold isn’t coming, no one has denied that the overall picture is great and no one has said winter over.

But it’s a poor EC run comparable to its previous output. That’s as far as the analysis needs to go. It could quite easily revert on its 12z run.

[Tim Bland]

Happy with ECM, second half has plenty of opportunities for snow, fair enough it may struggleto settle at times , but it’s only week 2 of winter !  
 

Don’t forget there’s more to snow than t850 look at the thickness / boundary layer and DPs, air is coming off the continent where they oftenget snow at -2 850hpa in sub 528 dam air and below 0c DP 

[Windysun1]

3 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

I couldn’t possibly have posted that stonker of a chart could I. Silly me, I only analyse the ECM det.

Crewe, keep up the excellent analysis.

You evaluated the chart that you posted and were spot on with your evaluation.

Always enjoy reading your posts.

[IDO]

Well, little surprise, the ECM op lands in the cluster that the GFS op was in a couple of days ago, with the Arctic wedge spoiler:

This has been a significant cluster in the GEFS, and the only surprise was that ECM op did not highlight it in an earlier run. We know from the GEFS with this synoptic, that it is not what we want, for the cold outbreak or longevity. We will see where the music stops.

[Vikos]

Some stupid model outputs should not ruin your whole day and put you in a bad mood. 
unless haarp is working probably, there is nothing we can do about it to change it. What comes comes…. 🫣

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just now, IDO said:

Well, little surprise, the ECM op lands in the cluster that the GFS op was in a couple of days ago, with the Arctic wedge spoiler:

This has been a significant cluster in the GEFS, and the only surprise was that ECM op did not highlight it in an earlier run. We know from the GEFS with this synoptic, that it is not what we want, for the cold outbreak or longevity. We will see where the music stops.

Thank you for backing up exactly what I’ve been saying for the past half an hour

Just now, Vikos said:

Some stupid model outputs should not ruin your whole day and put you in a bad mood. 
unless haarp is working probably, there is nothing we can do about it to change it. What comes comes…. 🫣

No model output will put me in a bad mood. People’s attitudes however…

[seb]

12 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Yes…I posted the EC frame and analysed what it would bring as surface conditions. It’s what this thread is for?

As for your second point, I don’t just analyse the ECM you know

So really what you wanted to say was:

If the ECM Op verified as per this morning’s run then we’d end up with cold rain for most. 
 

That’s valid and I assume that’s what you meant. But what you actually said, together with the general OTT reaction by some, implies to those less knowledgeable that instead of cold and potentially snow we are now expecting miserable wet and cold weather which simply is not true.

[Guest]

Fantastic potential continues to exist on the model output this morning. Finer details to be decided. 

 

The use of emotive language such as "poor" and "disappointing" does not constitute sensible level-headed analysis hence the reactions from some.

 

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just now, seb said:

So really what you wanted to say was:

If the ECM Op verified as per this morning’s run then we’d end up with cold rain for most. 
 

That’s valid and I assume that’s what you meant. But what you actually said, together with the general OTT reaction by some, implies to those less knowledgeable that instead of cold and potentially snow we are now expecting miserable wet and cold weather which simply is not true.

But if I post a chart of the CURRENT run that should be a given.

I’m not here to specifically spoon feed beginners. I’ve been here for 12 years on this forum, my post style has never changed.

[Vikos]

3 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

 

No model output will put me in a bad mood. People’s attitudes however…

It’s the mix of all together… same, may even harder battlegrounds in German forums like wetterzentrale. Compared to netweather, wz is a warzone combined with a pool full of sharks…

[winterof79]

2 minutes ago, IDO said:

Well, little surprise, the ECM op lands in the cluster that the GFS op was in a couple of days ago, with the Arctic wedge spoiler:

This has been a significant cluster in the GEFS, and the only surprise was that ECM op did not highlight it in an earlier run. We know from the GEFS with this synoptic, that it is not what we want, for the cold outbreak or longevity. We will see where the music stops.

To be fair,if that's the worst case scenario the models can throw at us I'll take it with open arms.What a ridiculously magnificent Northern hemispheric profile.

We will develop our own cold pool as this unfolds and then you can shelve the borderline 850 debate.

But hey that's my take,,

[Cheshire Freeze]

3 minutes ago, Tidal Wave said:

Fantastic potential continues to exist on the model output this morning. Finer details to be decided. 

 

The use of emotive language such as "poor" and "disappointing" does not constitute sensible level-headed analysis hence the reactions from some.

 

 

Yet I assume ‘brilliant’ ‘stonking’ ‘amazing’ etc etc are all permissible?

Give over.

[Eagle Eye]

Surely the right thing to do is that when a model favours us coldies they're the best in the world whereas when they don't they just don't exist anymore

[Guest]

3 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Yet I assume ‘brilliant’ ‘stonking’ ‘amazing’ etc etc are all permissible?

Give over.

Same applies 

[seb]

4 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

But if I post a chart of the CURRENT run that should be a given.

I’m not here to specifically spoon feed beginners. I’ve been here for 12 years on this forum, my post style has never changed.

But it isn’t a given for many. I’m not going to argue and I know what you meant and mean but many don’t. I think it’s great that we have a lot of people who are interested but not as knowledgeable as others and I just think that it’s important to be clear when analysing individual runs. 

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

Anyway I’m off to bed before I use a few more ‘emotive words’ that may see me banned.

I won’t be up for the 6z runs but let’s hope they’re AMAZING.

[sheikhy]

Jheeez man calm down everyone!!!!we got this guys🌨!!!ecm mean coming out!!!

[Singularity]

As far as the drop of low pressure down the east flank of the Greenland high goes, ECM is at the extreme end of the spectrum while GFS is at the subdued end (yet still gets there eventually).

Logically, that makes the most probable outcome somewhere between the two, nearer GEM or UKM for example.

The one significant caveat is: As long as there isn’t a trend toward a more extreme outcome. That’s what needs monitoring today.

[Connor Bailey Degnan]

ECM mean, steady as she goes. .

[Lukesluckybunch]

Brilliant ECM mean!..good news is that days 9 and 10 the op is at top end of the pack

Edited December 1, 2022 by Lukesluckybunch
Adding

[Day 10]

Morning,

While everybody argues about whether it will rain or snow on day 8, here are all outputs for day 5.

Not bad at all.

In order of UKMO, GFS, GEM, ECM, JMA.

Better than the usual.....

Back tonight for the next installment, have a great day

[joggs]

The way I look at it,after some stonking charts there's going to be some downgrades. 

It's a cracking nh profile for the start of winter and more often than not,suprises pop up when the cold is in.

[Eagle Eye]

You know things are good when we're searching down the back of the sofa for one bad run every couple days.