Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter

[Allseasons-Si]

That's some brutal cold to our E/NE...

[tight isobar]

1 minute ago, Captain Shortwave said:

The cold will come, but more from an easterly vector this time as the cold air runs around the Atlantic high.

Yeah 12z starts patterning perfect heading for Greenland- but the block is inpeaded as shortwaving- And allow for a little more energising of the pv at point NW. we lose heights shape quickly then.. and the cold is pegged bk/ delayed.

[Tim Bland]

Nice easterly setting up 

[northwestsnow]

Liking GFS 12Z..

[Downburst]

1 minute ago, Ice Day said:

The GFS has quite a different profile over Greenland at 174 vs the 6z

 

Some subtle changes for sure, run to run wobble or a new signal?  As always, interesting where this takes us next

 

Suggesting a stubborn part of the vortex sitting over Hudson on the 12z, not there on the 06z. There's so much happening, or about to happen, that each run is only coming to terms with 4 days, never mind 7 to 8 days out. REally won't be until Staturday or Sunday that we know enough about next week. Very close  to a good understanding in 48 hours I think.

[bluearmy]

Big differences at days 5/6 over the polar field with vortex separation there/not there 

anyone hoping  for any cross model continuity will have to wait another twelve hours! 

[frosty ground]

2 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

This afternoon runs are showing why I don't believe in a true Greenland high set up as we are getting into the time frame where spoilers pop up and we do see that on the UKMO in particular. 

The GFS spoiler seems to be the Iberian low once again, still room for upgrades though but not quite the output that will get this place celebrating.

Can you explain how the Iberian low is stopping the gree land high? 
the GFS looks pretty cold to me , yeah the blocks have moved since the o6z run buts that’s to be expected.

[Skullzrulerz]

10 minutes ago, Vikos said:

1070 Greenland High drops to 1055

 

We really need that Greenland High to stay as strong as possible.

GFS is good but the high not being as strong is a bit worrying.

Another thing is the PX around Hudson Bay.

Cold coming in from the North East, I would prefer coming from the east.

Would be more suitable for the South west.

Edited December 1, 2022 by Skullzrulerz

[northwestsnow]

GFS is good..

we dont want the frigid air dropping through Scandy spilling into the Atlantic..

[Ice Day]

Well it's made a right old dogs breakfast of getting there, but this run looks like it's about to get interesting 

 

Cold moving in from the ENE

[frosty ground]

 

looks like a low is about to drop down into the North Sea 

[Cheshire Freeze]

GFS is decent. Slower pattern= colder pattern and none of the crap shown by the 0z ECM where it had the trough too far west.

[tight isobar]

12z Gfs a classic ... the best comes to those whom wait....

[Tim Bland]

Snow showers packing in from the east by the weekend …

[Downburst]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Big differences at days 5/6 over the polar field with vortex separation there/not there 

anyone hoping  for any cross model continuity will have to wait another twelve hours! 

continuity only happens at T+96hrs really, so it's an endless task with ICON, UKNO, GFS and ECM looking for continuity. One NWP to Rule them all is what we need. Not sure Gandalf would be happy with that.

[Mark wheeler]

GFS looking east rather than North east .

[Eastern Scotland WX]

Jesus Christ, look at GEM!

[Turnedoutniceagain]

 

The Baltic's looking very errr, Baltic !!

[Singularity]

GFS finding another wave of amplification on Friday, with a bigger trough drop lining up to our NE then E.

More residual over Hudson Bay is one way to prevent a marginal cyclonic setup akin to the ECM 00z but of course raises the odds of the ridge never getting so far north to begin with.

Cut-off highs at the Iceland latitude have supported some notably cold UK weather in times past, mind. Usually of the drier sort away from the far south, though.

[Allseasons-Si]

And to note further,...the Iberian low slides east towards the Med which is a good thing and a bonus

[Ice Day]

At 222, there's a low in the Med which would be very useful in pulling the really cold air east

[Tim Bland]

Draw me a better winter chart?! 

[bluearmy]

2 minutes ago, Downburst said:

continuity only happens at T+96hrs really, so it's an endless task with ICON, UKNO, GFS and ECM looking for continuity. One NWP to Rule them all is what we need. Not sure Gandalf would be happy with that.

We generally have broad agreement at days 5/6. 

hard to find an eps member from the 00z suite that looks like the gfs op around day 8/9

Again that cold surface high around scandi - makes some sense on a slower evolution 

[Geordiesnow]

2 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Can you explain how the Iberian low is stopping the gree land high? 
the GFS looks pretty cold to me , yeah the blocks have moved since the o6z run buts that’s to be expected.

Initially the Iberian low delays the easterly somewhat(we pick up more of an ESE'ly) so somewhat a delay to the colder air and we all know we don't want to see delays! 

UKMO is better in that aspect but the attempted stopping of the ridge into Greenland means the main northerly thrust is further eastwards which could moderate the cold. Its a decent run though  and I await too see what the 168 hour chart shows.

Either way neither the GFS or UKMO is backing this mornings ECM run so far. 

[Allseasons-Si]

5 minutes ago, Eastern Scotland WX said:

Jesus Christ, look at GEM!

Goes the ECM route but i am not fussed at that range(168)

Edited December 1, 2022 by Allseasons-si
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