Winter 2022/23 - Moans, Ramps & Chat

[Weather Enthusiast91]

14 minutes ago, Gowon said:

Did you picture me freezing my bald head off?

Pretty much, yes. 

[matt111]

Even here on the balmy south coast it went down to just above -3°C. Nice to see after so long. 

[Snowboy111]

What we saying then ? Big correction south for that Low ? Northern France snow fest ?

[SussexSnowman]

Been observing the threads and the Mod Thread in particular and the sheer range of emotions.

I am happy for once for something that feels a bit more like winter. It doesn’t just have to be snow for winter to feel like winter. I am loving these cold crisp days and here on the south coast (I am a few miles inland) we have a hard frost! It’s most welcome. Snow would always be a welcome bonus, but I wouldn’t be hugely disappointed with a cold dry winter. Makes a change from the mild muck that seems never ending.

[Snowmaggedon]

This might be the wrong thread for it but there are big snowflakes falling right now in Middlesbrough very nice surprise! Hope you all get your snow fix too! 

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

28 minutes ago, SussexSnowman said:

Been observing the threads and the Mod Thread in particular and the sheer range of emotions.

I am happy for once for something that feels a bit more like winter. It doesn’t just have to be snow for winter to feel like winter. I am loving these cold crisp days and here on the south coast (I am a few miles inland) we have a hard frost! It’s most welcome. Snow would always be a welcome bonus, but I wouldn’t be hugely disappointed with a cold dry winter. Makes a change from the mild muck that seems never ending.

Have to go skiing these days to get my snow fix!

[Relativistic]

1 hour ago, SussexSnowman said:

Been observing the threads and the Mod Thread in particular and the sheer range of emotions.

I am happy for once for something that feels a bit more like winter. It doesn’t just have to be snow for winter to feel like winter. I am loving these cold crisp days and here on the south coast (I am a few miles inland) we have a hard frost! It’s most welcome. Snow would always be a welcome bonus, but I wouldn’t be hugely disappointed with a cold dry winter. Makes a change from the mild muck that seems never ending.

Completely agree. There's plenty to enjoy about crisp, cold, frosty days. I'll be happy regardless of whether or not there's any snow.

[MidnightSnow]

"Get the cold in the first, and the snow will follow"

With 10-14 days of cold / very cold weather coming up, let's see if this old adage proves to be true or not. If most of the country is snowless over the next couple of weeks, then we collectively should dispel it as myth 

[The Enforcer]

42 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

A bit of a worrying trend in FI from GFS so far today. 
 

Let’s see what the evening brings!

 

29 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

The latest 06z continues the theme, no huge scatter like the Gefs shows

 

55 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Even more dramatic if you go back to a comparison from 5 days ago:

Yes there is a trend. Is it worrying? Not really.

A. It begins 9 days from now;

B. It's GFS and the above is an example of how that model runs with an idea for a bit at such range then has a complete change of heart; and

C. MOGREPS still plotting a steadier overall picture in an 8-day timeframe, even though there are clear synoptic differences emerging between models/runs in the details well within that period.

[The Enforcer]

26 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Scatter on GEFS starts after the MOGREPS time period (from 17th) though ? 

Probably why MOGREPS cuts off when it does, to avoid becoming too chaotic to be of any real use.

[*Stormforce~beka*]

8 hours ago, Chesil View said:

We obviously Interpret things in a different way Mapantz as we have on several occasions.  To my ears  Alex said in the video at a point prior to the text you speak of that if the front made inroads into the southwest it would likely bring significant snow somewhere.  He later showed the map with the meto 70% preferred option which showed the area affected in that scenario all being south of the M4 but you are correct to pull me up on that because the 70% was in fact it was pretty much all south of the A303.  

That was a hard call for me! Winchester is bang on line with that so no idea if i'm the game or out lol

[The Enforcer]

52 minutes ago, joggs said:

The AO and NAO are now trending away from negative though. I guess we'll see.

Only according to GEFS that I have seen. Tail wagging dog.

[MidnightSnow]

Is the ECM the only model to show frontal snow in the south next week? Saw some glorious charts in the MOD thread this morning, but I'm guessing people think this scenario is unlikely as cold & dry seems to be the tone.

[feb1991blizzard]

wont be any model discussion till they unlock thread.

mind you i suppose you can post it in here - don't think they're as bothered as non model discussion in model thread.

Edited December 8, 2022 by feb1991blizzard

[Mark Smithy]

Do you think they'll get around to unlocking the model output thread 

Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

wont be any model discussion till they unlock thread.

SNAP!!

[Noob]

Im not sure what too think now, charts say one thing, met updates seems too say the opposite other than cold is nailed on. They seem to be pro's at sitting on the fence and they are meant to be the experts or am i assuming too much ?

[mhielte]

2 minutes ago, Noob said:

Im not sure what too think now, charts say one thing, met updates seems too say the opposite other than cold is nailed on. They seem to be pro's at sitting on the fence and they are meant to be the experts or am i assuming too much ?

Assuming too much Unless the signal is ridiculously strong at that range, and let's face it, it never is, then there will always be a good deal of fence sitting in the extended text forecasts.

[Snowboy111]

8 minutes ago, Noob said:

Im not sure what too think now, charts say one thing, met updates seems too say the opposite other than cold is nailed on. They seem to be pro's at sitting on the fence and they are meant to be the experts or am i assuming too much ?

Nothing worse than a ‘Pro’ with egg on their face. Cards close to the chest an all that. 

Edited December 8, 2022 by Snowboy111

[Seasonal Trim]

@Paul please can we have a short range model thread? I'm not interested in + FI charts, and that's all that seems to be discussed in the main thread. I'm sure others would agree that a <144 thread would be ideal.

 

[*Stormforce~beka*]

5 hours ago, Weather Enthusiast91 said:

An absolutely stunning winter's morning - a temp of -1°C, lovely blue sky, sparkly hard frost and the air is nice and fresh and crisp. Despite it being below freezing, it doesn't really feel that cold. I suppose because it's a dry cold and sunny, and I tend to feel the cold more when it is damp.

This is it. It's cold obviously but I felt much warmer on school run today than I have recently! And it was -4 at 830! I did wear fleecy trousers and a gillet under my winter coat mind so that might have something to do with it LOL

[Paul]

4 minutes ago, Seasonal Trim said:

@Paul please can we have a short range model thread? I'm not interested in + FI charts, and that's all that seems to be discussed in the main thread. I'm sure others would agree that a <144 thread would be ideal.

 

We've had it before to be honest and it didn't fly. People tend to want to discuss the full range in one place, and only very few were using it to post etc. Plus we have the new highlights thread as of today.

[Summer Sun]

People on the lowest incomes in over 300 postcode area across Cumbria, North East and North West England, West Yorkshire, Greater Manchester, Birmingham, Coventry, Staffordshire and Brecon will receive a £25 Cold Weather Payment from the Government.

 

You can check your postcode here https://coldweatherpayments.dwp.gov.uk/search.php

You can check if you're eligible for the payment here https://www.gov.uk/cold-weather-payment/eligibility

 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

could this be 'worst' cold spell ever! could 2022 be virtually snowless year?  whole thing could end with a whimper like Feb 2021, where mild 850's arrive before the front, bitter spell and bitter day, that ended in no snow

[DJ Fart]

24 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

could this be 'worst' cold spell ever! could 2022 be virtually snowless year?  whole thing could end with a whimper like Feb 2021, where mild 850's arrive before the front, bitter spell and bitter day, that ended in no snow

It's awful isn't it? Getting absolutely sick of BOOOOOM charts in the mod thread which are always 8 days away. All that about Getting The Cold In etc is fine but pointless without the precipitation to go with it. If it isn't going to snow I'd genuinely rather have record breaking mild. If we can't get snow from these setups I think I'll stop bothering looking!

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

32 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

could this be 'worst' cold spell ever! could 2022 be virtually snowless year?  whole thing could end with a whimper like Feb 2021, where mild 850's arrive before the front, bitter spell and bitter day, that ended in no snow

Hope not!