Winter 2022/23 - Moans, Ramps & Chat

[LetItSnow!]

Beautiful sparkling sunshine about to be replaced with mild, dull, putrid southwesterlies… it’s enough to make you want to cry There is nothing redeeming about them in the winter at all really. Any benefits from mild weather can’t be enjoyed because of unrelenting cloud and rain, plus a tendency for extreme rainfall in the northwest that causes flooding and misery. If you get long stretches it messes up with nature, plants bloom early and then get susceptible to damage when it eventually does turn cold again. If I could I would build a machine to zap the heights away to our south just to never have to deal with its wretched nature ever again.

I really hope the GEM is on to something and we get them out the way as soon as possible. Of course we will.  

 

[Summer8906]

3 hours ago, MP-R said:

I said heating on ‘less’, not off

However, if we get anywhere near 13C I might open the window to let the heat in lol.

I’d take that if we actually have some snow beforehand. Until then, I’m still chasing snow.

Jan 2011 was really quite frosty and cold for a while here. The switch really flicked in Feb. Not a month I wish to see repeated.

True, Feb 2011 was dull and damp but at least it was just one month, as March 2011 was warm (in the main) and sunny.

1 hour ago, LetItSnow! said:

Beautiful sparkling sunshine about to be replaced with mild, dull, putrid southwesterlies… it’s enough to make you want to cry

Indeed, beautiful sunset right now. It's sad that this might be the penultimate nice sunset of 2022 unless that Christmas cold shot does occur.

Here's to a dry and fine late winter from late Jan onwards, cold at first, milder later, with lots of blue skies and sunshine.

[Summer8906]

1 hour ago, LetItSnow! said:

Beautiful sparkling sunshine about to be replaced with mild, dull, putrid southwesterlies… it’s enough to make you want to cry There is nothing redeeming about them in the winter at all really. Any benefits from mild weather can’t be enjoyed because of unrelenting cloud and rain, plus a tendency for extreme rainfall in the northwest that causes flooding and misery. If you get long stretches it messes up with nature, plants bloom early and then get susceptible to damage when it eventually does turn cold again. If I could I would build a machine to zap the heights away to our south just to never have to deal with its wretched nature ever again.

And in fact IMO you're absolutely spot on with the rest of your post. While I don't like an over-delayed spring, it is a bit silly when daffodils start appearing in early Feb while it's still relatively dull and gloomy and you can't enjoy them. Late Feb, yes.

Still, it does tend to take prolonged extreme mild of the 2016 or 2020 sort to do this. If Jan is only a degree or so above the 1981-2010 average (I tend to ignore the 1991-2020 as unrepresentative), this is less likely to happen even if the weather is a bit miserable.

 

 

Edited December 16, 2022 by Summer8906

[DJ Fart]

I was called a wind up merchant on here for daring to suggest that the cold air will be swept aside easily. Oh look! 

[Summer8906]

4 minutes ago, DJ Fart said:

I was called a wind up merchant on here for daring to suggest that the cold air will be swept aside easily. Oh look! 

It does amaze me how we're not getting a battleground, after having had the cold air entrenched for over a week.

A completely rubbish breakdown. The alternatives: a) the high toppling south leading to milder and dry (Jan 1982 style) or b) Biscay lows trying to move in, coming up against the cold and producing snow, with the milder air eventually getting in but not without a battle (late Dec 1995 style), would be very much better.

Instead the block just collapses. Then we're back to conditions reminiscent of November for a few days next week - almost as if the past three weeks never happened. Still hopeful the final week of the year might be slightly less dire.

Edited December 16, 2022 by Summer8906

[Summer8906]

3 hours ago, Thundery wintry showers said:

Mild dry sunny weather is pretty rare in December and January, but it's quite common for changeable westerly regimes with a high frequency of sunshine-and-showers days from returning polar maritime air masses to be mild and wet but also sunny, especially in eastern parts of the UK.  I can think of quite a few examples from my youth - December 1994, January 1999, February 2000 for example.  The mild sunny Christmas Day in 1987 was also associated with a returning polar maritime air mass.

 

While here, returning polar maritime just feeds in lots of cloud and intermittent rain from the Channel. I was actually not in this area at Christmas 1987 (I was near Manchester) but it wouldn't surprise me if Christmas 1987 would have been pretty cloudy with intermittent rain down near the Channel coast. Tolerance of southwesterlies is I think directly proportional to how far northeast you are!

In December 1994 the sunniest period (here, at least) was actually a rather brief frosty anticyclonic spell from the 19th to the 23rd, in which we enjoyed slightly-below-average maxima and hard frosts. I suspect that week alone would have contributed to the bulk of the sunshine total for that month, as it was very sunny indeed.

January 1999 was mostly poor (though not that dull, admittedly) - but did feature a brief coldish sunny period around the 10th, and then two brief cold cloudy spells later. Otherwise, wet and undistinguished.

February 2000 featured more straight W, or slightly N of W, winds I think, so after a dull start did become sunnier later. Most tolerable Atlantic-driven winter months are Februaries IMX, though Feb 2020 was of course an absolute horror show.

Edited December 16, 2022 by Summer8906

[Summer8906]

Was just thinking actually about other years where cold weather in early-mid Dec (of varying degrees) broke down after mid month.

The ones that come to mind include 1990, 2002, 2003, 2005, 2007 and 2012 (which was before mid month admittedly, but similar in some ways).

What's interesting is that none of the following Februaries were zonalfests and all featured anticyclonic weather, though temperatures were rather variable.

Some (Jan 2004 and Jan 2008) featured dull, wet zonal Januaries and others (1991 and 2006) started that way. The transition back to settled conditions varied from around Jan 10 in 1991 and 2013 to early Feb in 2004.

So based on historical analogues I wonder if that means that we do actually have some hope for late winter offering something other than relentless zonality? And that January will be the wettest, mildest and most unsettled month of the winter.

Will try and repost in more detail on the "winter predictions" thread later.

Edited December 16, 2022 by Summer8906

[MP-R]

2005 probably not the best example as the coldest weather was in the final week, and after a new year breakdown, the cold quickly came back in early Jan at varying degrees.

[HurricaneSteve]

those dreaded words have been spoken - "all to play for"

The frozen snow that still sits around outside, is now on borrowed time, as are any Snow-persons that have been built

[Thundery wintry showers]

1 hour ago, Summer8906 said:

While here, returning polar maritime just feeds in lots of cloud and intermittent rain from the Channel. I was actually not in this area at Christmas 1987 (I was near Manchester) but it wouldn't surprise me if Christmas 1987 would have been pretty cloudy with intermittent rain down near the Channel coast. Tolerance of southwesterlies is I think directly proportional to how far northeast you are!

In December 1994 the sunniest period (here, at least) was actually a rather brief frosty anticyclonic spell from the 19th to the 23rd, in which we enjoyed slightly-below-average maxima and hard frosts. I suspect that week alone would have contributed to the bulk of the sunshine total for that month, as it was very sunny indeed.

January 1999 was mostly poor (though not that dull, admittedly) - but did feature a brief coldish sunny period around the 10th, and then two brief cold cloudy spells later. Otherwise, wet and undistinguished.

February 2000 featured more straight W, or slightly N of W, winds I think, so after a dull start did become sunnier later. Most tolerable Atlantic-driven winter months are Februaries IMX, though Feb 2020 was of course an absolute horror show.

I originally came from the Tyne and Wear coast, where they're sheltered from south-westerlies, but when I think about it, even there, in each of those three months, the sunniest spells were generally the frosty ones.  I remember finding Christmas 1994 disappointing because we had plenty of sunshine and night frosts in the week leading up to Christmas and then Christmas Day was mild and grey.  Similarly in January 1999 I remember the northerly snap in the second week being very sunny, and in February 2000 the sunniest days tended to be fairly mild by day but with night frosts.

The same was also true in January 2007 (plenty of sunshine in the cold last week) and January 2012 (sunny frosty spell midmonth).  It would appear that most Decembers and Januarys that were statistically mild and sunny overall were sunniest during cold frosty interludes, and lacked sustained spells of mild and sunny weather.  It's more common to get mild sunny weather in February, but when we get a February 2019 type setup in November, December or January we often get a sunny day or two followed by persistent low cloud (this happened recently in the second week of November 2022).

Edited December 16, 2022 by Thundery wintry showers

[Eastips85]

Nice to join in on the white landscape finally this morning in the form of a blink and you’l miss it frost. No real change in the weather this weekend unfortunately…yet more rain! Thank goodness it will start getting lighter in the  evening from next week and I can look forward to another summer full of yellow thunderstorm warnings that never materialise. 

[knocker]

They said winter is all over.........................it is now

Edited December 16, 2022 by knocker

[cyclonic happiness]

2 minutes ago, knocker said:

They said winter is over.........................it is now

for the EU 

[Summer Sun]

BBC going for a mild Christmas in the south and cooler in the north

[I remember Atlantic 252]

going of yesterdays EC likely, for us members in the south we need shift south, can see battleground over the north

[Skullzrulerz]

31 minutes ago, knocker said:

They said winter is all over.........................it is now

 

 

[Mapantz]

10 minutes ago, Gazse9 said:

This so called mild interlude seems to be getting delayed more and more. What's the chances of it not happening at all??

I guess that depends on where you are.. it has been forecast for the last 5 days to hit double figures here from Sunday, and that hasn't changed. Also likely to make double figures all of next week.

It is what it is!

[Jake March-Jones]

Anybody else watching the pub run with GWV?

[nick sussex]

Just now, Jake March-Jones said:

Anybody else watching the pub run with GWV?

I’m intrigued what does GWV stand for ? is that a drink or medication as coldies might need it to get through the current drama !

[Stuie]

Just now, nick sussex said:

I’m intrigued what does GWV stand for ? is that a drink or medication as coldies might need it to get through the current drama !

lol pretty sure he means Gav on twitter... maybe not and just a cracking shot...

[slater]

So 9 days of solid frost and my north facing back garden been frozen solid ever since . Been nice to see but now fed up with it like a lot of people. Apart from the model coldies who clearly don't think it's been cold or snowy enough...They do craze me sometimes....I for one have seen my little box clocking up the £££,last week, I am at the moment ok to pay the bill. However lots of our local Facebook forums are sitting in freezing cold rooms  because they can't afford it...and it does wind me up certain posters want even colder and to last all winter.. I for one will be glad to see the back of it now, 

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

I’m intrigued what does GWV stand for ? is that a drink or medication as coldies might need it to get through the current drama !

gin whisky vodka

Edited December 16, 2022 by feb1991blizzard

[Sleighbelle]

3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

I’m intrigued what does GWV stand for ? is that a drink or medication as coldies might need it to get through the current drama !

Gav’s weather vids

[SqueakheartLW]

Just now, nick sussex said:

I’m intrigued what does GWV stand for ? is that a drink or medication as coldies might need it to get through the current drama !

Gavs Weather Vids

Youtube channel or his twitter if you prefer

https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids/videos

https://twitter.com/GavinPartridge

Unless someone has invented a new one for GWV

[Jake March-Jones]

9 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

I’m intrigued what does GWV stand for ? is that a drink or medication as coldies might need it to get through the current drama !

Haha yeah there's a livestream of the pub run tonight. It's a good craic on a Friday night