Model Output Discussion. 3/12/2022. How cold will it get?

[Snowmadsam]

Just now, Josh S said:

This face sums up the 18z!

Just the hundred odd moving parts to make it happen, but brilliant anyway!

Pure filth that!

I don’t usually watch an 18z run! But gosh! 
 

absolute treat if you love the cold- let’s see if it trends or has ens support 

[blizzard81]

Just now, ICE COLD said:

Day 9 and JFF . But think we’re all take that . 

Can't believe I'm in that baron patch in the middle of northern England. One for the bin

[Singularity]

Fascinating that GFS has now come full-circle on what it does with the low near the Azores (the stall last featured on yesterday’s 00z run)…. but in that time the position and orientation of the trough across the UK has become significantly colder from our perspective.

The UKM 12z was further west with that low near the Azores all the way to about +132 hours compared to its 00z run, before a large acceleration that meant it ended up being east of the 00z by +168 hours, which I did find a bit suspicious. Anyway, I’m now wondering whether that shift west was a nod to what GFS has now pulled out of the hat.

I also wonder just how long it’s going to be before this hugely challenging system is reliably resolved. If it goes down to +72 hours there are going to be a lot of fatigued  forum members... I’ve been there and it’s tough going.

What I would advise is to take individual runs lightly, consider them mere suggestions for anything past 4 days from now. It really helps the mentality.

[Eagle Eye]

ICON showing a decent evolution, that low could (and hopefully will) help to re-enforce WAA back towards Greenland and allow deep cold to be entrenched further on.

[Bats32]

1 minute ago, Josh S said:

This face sums up the 18z!

Just the hundred odd moving parts to make it happen, but brilliant anyway!

Why am I seeing something other than a face there

[TSNWK]

4 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Day 9 and JFF . But think we’re all take that . 

Haha I’m in the 32cm blob. Must be Thames Stream North West Kent, I’m calling it a night enjoying the moment of England 3-0 and cracking 18z. Might be gone in the morning but this moment stays. Cya 

Edited December 4, 2022 by TSNWK

[Derecho]

Quite a few ens members backing the ICON run earlier allowing more cold air to feed into Scandi. If we are lucky enough to get an easterly later, this may be a nice bonus.

[ICE COLD]

Still going at day 11

[Malarky]

Right, that’s it, stop the models. We’ll take this one thanks very much!

Please can we lock in D 2-8 now! Please!

[geordiekev]

The ECM at 240 seems to be toying with reinvigorating the Greenland heights. Not sure if everyone was trained on the hurricane to see what was happening NW.

I mentioned earlier even 62/63 had dartboard lows to contend with. Its the macro pattern that matters

Edited December 4, 2022 by geordiekev

[BlueHedgehog074]

May not yet be Christmas, but Santa sure loves to deliver a lot of cold and snowy goodies for the cold weather enthusiasts on these GFS pub runs. Interesting watching the excitability that unravels on here as some of these runs provide the dreams many want. Some of these dreams very well coming true with the cold and, at times, wintry weather that this week, and perhaps even the one after, could easily offer.

Edited December 4, 2022 by DiagonalRedLine

[ICE COLD]

And still going at day 13 lol  

[weirpig]

It’s all becoming a tad farcical now. 

[DOdo]

What an incredible run, if these were to verify.No sign of any mild Atlantic input.  Nice eye candy for coldies. 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

I know those precipitation charts can be misleading at long time scales,but to see a run from GFS here which brings the first snow into Scotland around mid week,before some cropping up further South and then SE later...followed by further areas towards the East and South East before finishing with more widespread areas of the white stuff..well!! Just to see it is nice and the fact we are going colder puts us at risk of these features popping up all over the place.

But summing up,our first cold snap of the Winter begins this week...Frost for sure...low daytime max temps for sure...possibility of snow which could be disruptive in places also a risk. Potentially met office warnings appearing at short notice throughout the week?? Wouldn't suprise me. England winning World Cup and being greeted by snow and icy winds on returning to blighty! We enter the unknowns.

We are about to enter the Twilight Zone where everything imaginable is possible! Sorry folks I think I'm losing my way now...my teachers always used to say I had an overactive imagination

 

[Eagle Eye]

Sort of 2 wave Stratosphere with a dominating wave 1 amplitude event increasing pressure on the Stratospheric vortex and is now a trend that I'll be monitoring as a potential SSW pre-cursor . I'm a bit behind @chionomaniac as I forgot to look at the Strat in all this excitement till a few days ago .

Edited December 4, 2022 by Eagle Eye

[ryanoroo]

15 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Can't believe I'm in that baron patch in the middle of northern England. One for the bin

Was just going to say the same thing!... Is that likely to be the case in a set up like this? as in... being in the middle means we would get less laying snow?... I know the snow charts are pretty much hit and miss on the whole but I do remember times when Yorkshire missed out on the goods to the extreme levels???...

[Cheshire Freeze]

3 minutes ago, ryanoroo said:

Was just going to say the same thing!... Is that likely to be the case in a set up like this? as in... being in the middle means we would get less laying snow?... I know the snow charts are pretty much hit and miss on the whole but I do remember times when Yorkshire missed out on the goods to the extreme levels???...

Pretty sure it’s the famous Manchester snow shadow. Seems to track the Mersey.

Edited December 4, 2022 by CreweCold

[Paul_1978]

7 minutes ago, weirpig said:

It’s all becoming a tad farcical now. 

I prefer “intriguing” 

[Nick F]

England win and a cold 18z GFS pub run can make us go to sleep in an upbeat mood, but don't you always have the feeling in the back of your mind that it will all come crashing down in the morning with 00z EC and GFS showing mild SW'erlies by day 10?

Hopefully not, 18z GFS op though is quite different to 12z EC over Greenland around T+180 with shedding an upper low away from the TPV over the pole. GFS drops the upper low S or SW into the NW Atlantic, while EC drops it SE towards the NE Atlantic and merges it with the upper trough near the UK and over Scandinavia.

The GFS allows the wedge of high pressure to build to our west keeping the southern jet stream and its lows to the south - while EC doesn't have the high and so allows low pressure to move in from the SW. Because of these differences, F.I. teally beyond the end of the week, with other pieces of the jigsaw still to be resolved too. 

Never plain sailing trying to keep a cold pattern in the UK. There's always a model trying to break it down seemingly too willingly.

[Ben Sainsbury]

Purely for fun at this point, but what's that like a 980hPa low deepening well within the Arctic Circle at T318??

[Derecho]

1 minute ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

Purely for fun at this point, but what's that like a 980hPa low deepening well within the Arctic Circle at T318??

Looks like a textbook Polar Low to me.

[Man With Beard]

11 minutes ago, weirpig said:

It’s all becoming a tad farcical now. 

This is classic pub run. It really does feel like the GFS has been to the pub, the whole evolution made me dizzy, everything in the North Atlantic is going in the opposite way from normal!

[Snowy L]

Just now, Man With Beard said:

This is classic pub run. It really does feel like the GFS has been to the pub, the whole evolution made me dizzy, everything in the North Atlantic is going in the opposite way from normal!

To be fair up to 10 days it's very similar to the 12z.

[minus10]

Well it will probably be different again tomorrow but...just for now ...isnt it nice to see cold ....proper cold with potential snow be around for at least 12 days on the gfs18z...

While north eastern med are having it warmer for a change..