Model Output Discussion. 3/12/2022. How cold will it get?

[Notty]

13 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

If this run plays out there will be many planes that don’t get above freezing from this Thursday for potentially a week, especially with a dusting of snow

Glad I’m not flying then

[E17boy]

Hi peeps,

Hope you are all well. Well after a sad day today with my dad’s anniversary I must admit my mood has been lifted somewhat now with hints of some easterly on the horizon. At the moment here in NE London it’s feels really cold outside and I think there will be a frost, but this is just the start.

As I mentioned in my earlier post my hearts dream is for a build of Scandinavian heights and an easterly to set up especially for this part of the country as we normally do well with snow showers moving well inland.  That’s why my mood has lifted now seeing some signs of development to this. Still early days and a lot can change but I have got a deep feeling this coming cold snap is not going to be one that will come and go without anything to remember. 
 

Hopefully fingers crossed this easterly will become more of a expected pattern over the next few days.

Ending with a smile on my face for the day. Thank you all for all the great posts that I read.

THE WAIT FOR OUR WINTER WONDERLAND MAY FRUIT SOON 

night night all

 

[Lukesluckybunch]

1 minute ago, Ice Day said:

Yes, and a couple of frames further, the Control is still bringing winds from the east and is very similar to the op

 

I clicked through a few of the ens Are kind the 120 time..and a few of them are showing this easterly

[Snowy L]

Ok, NOW the Scandi High can build

 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Just now, E17boy said:

Hi peeps,

Hope you are all well. Well after a sad day today with my dad’s anniversary I must admit my mood has been lifted somewhat now with hints of some easterly on the horizon. At the moment here in NE London it’s feels really cold outside and I think there will be a frost, but this is just the start.

As I mentioned in my earlier post my hearts dream is for a build of Scandinavian heights and an easterly to set up especially for this part of the country as we normally do well with snow showers moving well inland.  That’s why my mood has lifted now seeing some signs of development to this. Still early days and a lot can change but I have got a deep feeling this coming cold snap is not going to be one that will come and go without anything to remember. 
 

Hopefully fingers crossed this easterly will become more of a expected pattern over the next few days.

Ending with a smile on my face for the day. Thank you all for all the great posts that I read.

THE WAIT FOR OUR WINTER WONDERLAND MAY FRUIT SOON 

night night all

 

Thank god for that mate...I've been waiting for eternity for you to stop saying...OUR SEARCH FOR A WINTER WONDERLAND CONTINUES! at long last it may have finally landed  

[1947s coming]

On 04/12/2022 at 12:32, 1947s coming said:

It will change closer to the actual time , but it’s now negatively tilted and could slide under the block. If so that could allow the cold from the east to move west , the high to move into scandi and start to pull the vortex chuck ready to drop down to the east  and feed from it. In my opinion Wednesday the models might have this sorted , let’s get the cold in first then watch the models change again . It really wouldn’t surprise me at all if we have a repeat of summer but now the blocking is to the north. Summer gave us record heat , are we ready for possibly record breaking cold. It’s certainly not the usual start and winter set up we are used to or the models 

 

[Ali1977]

Jesus, the pressure is now building - this could be a 14 day deep freeze not helping the energy crisis that’s fir sure!! 

 

2010 temps wise if this happened, historic type cold - not necessarily snow 

Edited December 5, 2022 by Ali1977

[Day 10]

1 minute ago, blizzard81 said:

Really good to have upgrades at relatively short notice. It has that 'feel' to it. 

Yeah has that old school look & feel to it I agree

[MJB]

Crazy crazy run 

[Eagle Eye]

Away from the UK on the ICON, slight amplification of the low pressure centre from the retraction of the East Asian jet amplifying the jet oscillations downstream in the Pacific Ocean, good signs that further down the line and the Scandinavian blocking potential is increased. An increasing thermal gradient enlarging the amplification of thermal eddy transfer further along the line. So downstream we have increased jet amplification meeting with the Eurasian feedback of the -VE EAMT. The only real way for the thermal eddy's to transfer is up towards a Scandinavian high. We could still see a less favourable jet retraction response but right now the Icon is showing a fairly decent initial response to the retraction so as a coldie(ish) I'm going to back this ICON run.

Oh and the ICON over the UK isn't half bad either .

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just now, Snowy L said:

Ok, NOW the Scandi High can build

 

It really is an extreme run...probably one at the extreme end of the envelope of possibilities, but nevertheless we'd be looking at a CET well below freezing for the period and this scenario would potentially set us up for the coldest December on record. That may be somewhat unlikely, but the fact it's even shown as a possibility is bonkers.

[blizzard81]

1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

Jesus, the pressure is now building - this could be a 14 day deep freeze not helping the energy crisis that’s fir sure!! 

That's brutal but lovely!

[MATTWOLVES 3]

3 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Jesus, the pressure is now building - this could be a 14 day deep freeze not helping the energy crisis that’s fir sure!! 

Looks like getting an air frier mate...otherwise I will be putting a magnet on the metre! 

Don't ya just love being in control

 

Edited December 5, 2022 by MATTWOLVES

[E17boy]

1 minute ago, MATTWOLVES said:

Thank god for that mate...I've been waiting for eternity for you to stop saying...OUR SEARCH FOR A WINTER WONDERLAND CONTINUES! at long last it may have finally landed  

Hi Matt

Bless you yes I myself was waiting for the day to change that phrase but it’s looks more promising. 
 

Hopefully the next step is to to get this to the next stage.

THE WAITING IS OVER

regards

[Decemberof2010]

‘THAT GFS 2022’

 

[Allseasons-Si]

Oh my word,...-10's heading for Blighty

sod it,...i will check rest of the thread later

i want to enjoy these op/control runs first

Edited December 5, 2022 by Allseasons-si

[lorenzo]

LOL

[Ali1977]

1 minute ago, MATTWOLVES said:

Looks like getting an air frier mate...otherwise I will be putting a magnet on the metre! 

 

Serious stuff really, I mean this is brutally cold now!! 

[O'Maille80]

Serie A stuff this from the pub run. Cold and getting colder.

[Jason M]

4 minutes ago, MJB said:

Crazy crazy run 

Now that is a cold chart!!!!!

[Eagle Eye]

Let's have a look at the GFS mean...

I think that's called a decent run 

1 minute ago, lorenzo said:

LOL

"Siri, show me a negative Arctic Oscillation pattern" (half stolen joke but my goodness me is that quite the chart)

[Jackski4]

Over in the World Cup thread I made fun of the Brazilians for dancing when they scored earlier, but with charts like this…. I think I’ll be dancing too!

[blizzard81]

This forum is on fire now. Not bad for a Monday night lol.

[booferking]

18z is a pipe buster and would go down as historic if it came off amazing run.

[Derecho]

4 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

It really is an extreme run...probably one at the extreme end of the envelope of possibilities, but nevertheless we'd be looking at a CET well below freezing for the period and this scenario would potentially set us up for the coldest December on record. That may be somewhat unlikely, but the fact it's even shown as a possibility is bonkers.

Not without support in the ens, up to day 7 you could argue the control might be even better. P19 is the best:

Azores low looks less threatening scanning through the ens.