Model Output Discussion. 3/12/2022. How cold will it get?

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, Neilsouth said:

no, it just highlights another model run to bin because = DARTBOARD LOW

Except it’s not your typical ‘dartboard low’

3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Greenland and scandi height rise attempts - and pacific sometimes - 09/10 classic - 3 wave patterns.

Bingo

[Polar Maritime]

9 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Hemispheric set up at the end of the GFS- wow here we go again.

Anyone notice a common theme in the extended of the NWP?

 It's certainly looking like a continued wintry cold to very cold theme. Especially given the warming up aloft.. The interesting models will continue. And so will the weather..

Edited December 6, 2022 by Polar Maritime

[Robbie Garrett]

That other LOW at +60 is going into Iberia? 

At +48 it is primed below the high.

If you then look at our NHC feature on the map as it heads towards Europe, it's only a few hundred miles NNW of the previous low.

I'd say it will follow a similar ENE track towards Paris area.

 

From +96 to +120 its heading in a reasonable direction and could spawn a Surface Low (Alas Feb 2009)  - I've drawn a line where the UKMO expects the LOW to head.

 

For nostalgia, look at similar negative tilt low in Feb 2009.

 

Edited December 6, 2022 by Robbie Garrett

[Rain All Night]

It is kind of impressive how that one low can just shatter every ensemble to pieces!

[kold weather]

Man, the 18z ensembles are pretty messy even as close as 120hrs. I'm not even talking about small local features, there is actually quite sizeable macro differences at that range, something you don't see all too often, and by 180hrs the difference in some runs with regards to the Atlantic sector heights are literally 180.

The broad trend I'd argue is for LP to try and come in from the SW, may well spill milder air at least higher up into our shores, but maybe not. Many keep a somewhat cold surface flow, only a few really do blast away the cold totally.

[minus10]

Well 18z gfs again pretty amazing..basically cold for at least 10 to 12 days..

Then it does this in far fi..

ECM antidote ???

 

This has to be one of the most exciting but perplexing...ney exhausting beginnings of winter since...2010?. 

As others have said though the nh profile is pretty different and exceptional for this time of year...has to have an impact on our cold chances down the line even if this current drama doesnt deliver..

[Frostbite80]

Perb 18 is what you want if you like a good snow storm. Some people would get 42 hours of snow even in the south if I worked it out right. If someone could post some charts it would be great to show one possibility. I can’t post charts at the moment unfortunately.

and a reload after the great blizzard....we can only but dream 

Edited December 6, 2022 by Frostbite80

[chionomaniac]

Just caught up and viewed the 18z gfs run. End of high res and low res 18z GFS is crazy in development. What it is seeing is signals, but can’t make head nor tail of them!
 

I consider it like it has certain jigsaw pieces (the signals) but has placed them in the wrong position or wrong way around. It is trying to work it out but can’t at the moment. So, it is difficult to see the picture even if you squint. But eventually those jigsaw pieces will be put the correct way up and in the right position. How long it takes is anyone’s guess. 
 

To edit. I consider the signals good and the long term picture will be too. 

Edited December 6, 2022 by chionomaniac

[Frigid]

I'll take that for December, usually the mean is flipped lol. GFS OP bullish on keeping the cold in, has been consistent at it all day. Hoping other models follow suit, we shall see..

 

[pages]

11 minutes ago, Frostbite80 said:

Perb 18 is what you want if you like a good snow storm. Some people would get 42 hours of snow even in the south if I worked it out right. If someone could post some charts it would be great to show one possibility. I can’t post charts at the moment unfortunately.

and a reload after the great blizzard....we can only but dream 

And it turns to this at day 10 after the day and half blizzard. 

[pages]

20 minutes ago, Frostbite80 said:

Perb 18 is what you want if you like a good snow storm. Some people would get 42 hours of snow even in the south if I worked it out right. If someone could post some charts it would be great to show one possibility. I can’t post charts at the moment unfortunately.

and a reload after the great blizzard....we can only but dream 

Weren't wrong about that perb 18. Still snowing after the blizzard and now the minus 12 uppers are coming in with brisk unstable flow.

[Frostbite80]

Just now, pages said:

Weren't wrong about that perb 18. Still snowing after the blizzard and now the minus 12 uppers are coming in with brisk unstable flow.

Yep will be watching that run until the end just for entertainment purposes as I don’t think I will ever see a run like that again for many a year

[IanT]

Looking at the output of the last 24h I observe that the greatest uncertainty attaches to perhaps the strongest feature on the Atlantic charts. The development and course of the low may be the determining factor in how everything plays out beyond the next few days. All eyes to the SW…

Edited December 6, 2022 by IanT

[IanT]

Atlantic 2-Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV

 

 

1. Central Subtropical Atlantic: A large area of low pressure located over the central subtropical Atlantic about 800 miles northeast of the northern Leeward Islands continues to produce a broad area of showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for development and a subtropical or tropical storm could form in the next couple of days. By Thursday night or Friday, the low will move northeastward over cooler waters and interact with a mid-latitude trough, limiting subtropical or tropical development of the system. Additional information on this low, including warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this system will be issued by 9 PM EST tonight, or earlier, if necessary. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

[Rain All Night]

1 minute ago, IanT said:

Atlantic 2-Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV

 

 

1. Central Subtropical Atlantic: A large area of low pressure located over the central subtropical Atlantic about 800 miles northeast of the northern Leeward Islands continues to produce a broad area of showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for development and a subtropical or tropical storm could form in the next couple of days. By Thursday night or Friday, the low will move northeastward over cooler waters and interact with a mid-latitude trough, limiting subtropical or tropical development of the system. Additional information on this low, including warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this system will be issued by 9 PM EST tonight, or earlier, if necessary. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Alarm for 2am then? 

[IanT]

3 minutes ago, RainAllNight said:

Alarm for 2am then? 

Yes. V keen to get NOAA’s view on the M4 divide next week…

[TallPaul]

2 hours ago, MATTWOLVES said:

Is it time to worry when the CFS gets rolled out?

Firstly there's some signs of snow potential for sure followed by a Battleground scenario before turning milder. 

But guess what! The heights regain traction around the NW by Xmas and we again end up with a colder spell...perhaps much colder.

All for fun but it may not be a million miles from the truth! a few hundred but not a million

And guess what the Vortex is split and basically saying that's me done for the winter...I've never been able to get going this time around...sub me I've had enough!

Got to keep ya spirits up folks...things still look pretty solid. And its nearly xmas...

Apologies as only just catching up (and still 4 pages behind!!). 

Love your continued positivity @MATTWOLVES through rain, shine and, maybe snow. 

I'm typing this at the time of reading your above post (23.30)... hopefully by the time I catch up (well-after the time I get to the post pub run posts), your comments and positive spin will have this place back in delirium again!

The UK's having a tough time as it is...the last thing we need is an Azores bomb to to wipe out our coldies dream... 

As I continue to catch up (reading through and taking in everyone's contribution), then hopefully by the time I get to the 'pub run's' comments we'll be in a much better place again... or maybe not... My point (I guess) - we all have our own perspectives, thoughts, positivity/negativity on the models and desired outcomes - but as for you mate, you keep ( and always) try to keep a middle ground, non-bias, non-argumentative, but honest with your replies...

You, amongst others' are what this forum is about...and irrespective of how often I feel let down by our (what always seems) Bi-Polar weather model runs... it's you and many other's which keep me coming back (since 2010) for more... and, as another forum legend would say ( @Legritter ), Stellas on me!

[alexisj9]

16 hours ago, Alexis said:

Anyone know why our Azores "hurricane" has suddenly switched to reaching our shores instead of stopping and meandering?

Probably a reaction to the new tropical invest, don't if it's developed further, further south.

[BlackburnChris]

1 hour ago, alexisj9 said:

Probably a reaction to the new tropical invest, don't if it's developed further, further south.

From what i can work out the Tropical Invest is the system from the SW ....   

[alexisj9]

10 minutes ago, BlackburnChris said:

From what i can work out the Tropical Invest is the system from the SW ....   

Yes but it's the tropical nature of it, models always struggle with how they interact with our systems

[BlackburnChris]

Just now, alexisj9 said:

Yes but it's the tropical nature of it, models always struggle with how they interact with our systems

yeah ,depends on the forcing and there;s substantial high pressure over Greenland at the moment compared to the autumn tropical storms , so my instinct is it will go further and further south over the next few model runs . 

[STRiZZY]

Latest on 99L (Azores low). 
 

As I stated earlier, the GFS is normally biased towards the east with tropical systems (loves to plow right through ridges). That’s not always the case though. This is interesting as it’s the most western track of the lot (AVNI). 

TVCN is one to watch because when the NHC makes predictions on the track of systems, it’s almost always very similar to the TVCN.
 

As of now it’s obviously splitting the difference between the Euro/GFS (it’s a blended model after all). 

Edited December 7, 2022 by STRiZZY

[Cheshire Freeze]

ECM 21z ensemble mean is an improvement even at 90 hrs. The Greenland HP is stronger and the LP has backed west by about 100 miles or so

 

[BlackburnChris]

1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

ECM 21z ensemble mean is an improvement even at 90 hrs. The Greenland HP is stronger and the LP has backed west by about 100 miles or so

 

You can clearly see it struggling against the HP in that image

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just now, BlackburnChris said:

You can clearly see it struggling against the HP in that image

 

Adds weight to the argument that the 12z was a progressive suite in all honesty.