Model Output Discussion. 3/12/2022. How cold will it get?

[MattStoke]

There’s the battleground on the GFS 6z precipitation type chart. A few more days until modelling resolved this one.

[MattStoke]

Looks like the front grinds to halt across the Midlands, Northern England, and Northern Ireland on this run.

Edited December 7, 2022 by MattStoke

[throwoff]

3 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

There’s the battleground on the GFS 6z precipitation type chart. A few more days until modelling resolved this one.

She's a beauty for Kent folk like me. 

I am trying to avoid the models till Fri eve/Sat now as that is when we will get some clarity.

[chionomaniac]

Still a cracking hemispheric profile - Oh and a Scandi high - though poorly orientated

[badgerhud]

So basically we have cold for around 5 days which will be nice… would say we’ll get some snow showers mainly in east that could move inland if we get an easterly over the weekend… then it’s the lie that will either pass south of uk leading us in the cold, got the U.K. and stall in the middle… our head north and end the cold spell!

[NewEra21]

Still get the feeling this low will barely scrape the south coast as we draw closer to the time, which will be a good result for everyone cold wise.

Edited December 7, 2022 by NewEra21

[kold weather]

1 minute ago, chionomaniac said:

Still a cracking hemispheric profile - Oh and a Scandi high - though poorly orientated

Amazing looking pattern, but sadly its about as bad an outcome for the UK as you can get from such a position of strength with a developing central Atlantic upper low and as you say a Scandi high slanted in such a way as to promote a SW fetch.

Still theres been very little consistency so no point looking too far ahead just yet really other than there is a clear strong -ve AO signal present still.

[MattStoke]

3 minutes ago, throwoff said:

She's a beauty for Kent folk like me. 

I am trying to avoid the models till Fri eve/Sat now as that is when we will get some clarity.

Yeah. Best to just watch for trends now. Milder air moves slowly into the south on this run but often these things end up further south than modelled at this range, though not always. It’s a notoriously hard setup to predict.

[IDO]

The GFS brings milder air in, preceded by a snow event. It is now moved to the UKMO/ECM slider low(s) scenario, so I think we can be confident this is where we are going. UKMO is best in these setups.

The difference with the ECM, is that GFS has one of the three slider lows riding the other two, which is not good for cold:

ECM  GFS: 

So by D9 GFS has killed the surface cold. For a better long term outlook, keeping that surface cold will assist with synoptics that are borderline.

D9 GFS 850s: 

 

[TSNWK]

Hello had 06z trended right way  for cold mid term compared to 00z.

Sorry no access to charts this morning

[Weathizard]

GFS going for a nice southerly airflow There was definitely a nice shift in that run to a more ECM like solution, small steps.

Knowing the world of model watching, the GFS 12z will jump on board on produce a stonker, then the ECM will jump overboard and bring in a Saharan plume or something, it’s always the way.

[IDO]

Very small changes in a signal, spoiler low in this case, and at D10, the differences between ECM and GFS are stark:

GFS  ECM 

[nick sussex]

The GFS now phases lower heights from the ne with the Atlantic low more favourably so a good end to the morning outputs .

For coldies it’s really a juggling act as if you want a frontal snow event that does come with more risk .

Of course as one avenue closes , let’s say the frontal snow misses , another one opens up. That being the miss would happen because of stronger blocking further east . And a more eastern based negative NAO would see colder air heading sw from Scandi .

Not sure what I would hoping for if I was in Eastbourne at the moment and not Cyprus . Difficult decision !

[Johnp]

Awful GFS 6z in deep FI. Wasn’t expecting BBQ weather in the week before Xmas*
 

*yes I know it will all change!

[MattStoke]

1 hour ago, MattStoke said:

It’ll be based off yesterday’s ECM. Their forecasts are always based off the last ECM run. They’ve become comical since dumping the Met Office.

And back to colder following this morning’s ECM.

[Northwest NI]

I.ve got model fatigue. That’s it. See you all in a week or two.

[Lampostwatcher]

I want snow not just cold 

Gfs ecm ukmo 

All give most of us a snow event in 7 days time

[northwestsnow]

[nick sussex]

2 minutes ago, Northwest NI said:

I.ve got model fatigue. That’s it. See you all in a week or two.

Lmao ! See you later ! There’s no way you’ll be  avoiding the models at this time .

Edited December 7, 2022 by nick sussex

[IDO]

1 minute ago, Lampostwatcher said:

I want snow not just cold 

Gfs ecm ukmo 

All give most of us a snow event in 7 days time

Yes, models are agreeing on the best solution for snow "potential".

We know GFS sucks at sliders, but the "new-improved" GFS has not been tested yet, and may be better or worse, so far, not so good with a red herring solution yesterday. So, I would side with UKMO and ECM, a mix of those two until we know where we are with the GFS new kid on the block.

[Day_9]

3 hours ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

Nothing is nailed after Monday, could go either way depending on the track of the low.

The cold weather alert is only till Monday and some are commenting on things getting milder from Monday ?

Also the BBC are showing milder temperatures next week.

They just forecast it getting even colder next week on R4

[Johnp]

1 hour ago, bluearmy said:

Nonsense…….

[seb]

This is what my model blend is producing 

[mb018538]

8 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Literally the only time low pressure never produces any ppn is when cold is involved. Any other time it tips it down!

[Weathizard]

9 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Isn’t that the UKM120 chart just in fax form?

Its whether there is enough forcing on that low to stop it and send some energy underneath, that low looks pretty strong