Northwest Weather Discussion

[cheshireoak]

4.6C in the marginals some heavy showers coming through. Yesterday temps dropped steadily from 7.4 to 2.9 at about 10pm. Just returned from Macc, thought might be a bit of sleetiness but still just wet. As several posters have  already mentioned plenty of potential for events to pop up in the next few days.

[Scuba steve]

Lovely day here some high cirrus clouds a possible omen  for  rain  later

[damianslaw]

18 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Equally juxtaposed between a S Cumbria / N Yorks entry and Lancs / Mcr / Peaks entry. No real indication of southern scotland on any model.

Thanks, just that the met office warning mentions extending east across southern scotland.. so assume the feature will be further north. 

The BBC apps - and these are often very wrong show precipitation in N Cumbria overnigh for example type in Alston, yet the maps show barely anything for much of N England.

As always it will be a nowcast and seeing what falls out of the sky.

[A Face like Thunder]

A few spots of rain but nothing more at this time. The problem is going to be tonight, with the possibility of water on roads and pavements freezing into ice, hence a yellow warning for ice covering tomorrow morning. 

[Joe Snow]

Lots of heavy showers rattling through the Cheshire Gap this morning adding to the rain totals ️  (shame it’s not snow )  Might see some falling wintryness & some sharp frosts over the next few days but settling stuff nah just not seeing it for my location at least at the moment - a cold spell but v diluted looking tbh. 

Edited January 15, 2023 by Joe Snow

[Kasim Awan]

15 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Thanks, just that the met office warning mentions extending east across southern scotland.. so assume the feature will be further north. 

The BBC apps - and these are often very wrong show precipitation in N Cumbria overnigh for example type in Alston, yet the maps show barely anything for much of N England.

As always it will be a nowcast and seeing what falls out of the sky.

Perhaps touching the borders - with main precip into Cumbria Durham / N Yorks - either that or into Mancs type area, either way marginal below 225m.

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Perhaps touching the borders - with main precip into Cumbria Durham / N Yorks - either that or into Mancs type area, either way marginal below 225m.

Gfs 6z has dew points still wrong side of marginal at 6am.

 

[Kasim Awan]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Gfs 6z has dew points still wrong side of marginal at 6am.

 

Beauty of having no thermodynamic barrier for surface heated westerly airflows south of Moreacombe bay. Means dew points will be heavily moderated south of Lancaster.

[Chris.R]

Tonight has some potential but I'm not really sure if there is going to be much pricip. Surface winds are offshore though and slack so evaporative cooling comes into play. Tuesday night slack Westerly has potential too.

[Kasim Awan]

24 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

Tonight has some potential but I'm not really sure if there is going to be much pricip. Surface winds are offshore though and slack so evaporative cooling comes into play. Tuesday night slack Westerly has potential too.

Problem is onshore at 700hpa for more southern areas and onshore down to 975hpa for a good portion of the night meaning collection of moderated air in the mcr / cheshire area early in night. Will likely cause marginality below 325m here until winds veer N after say 4am when the precip is done sinking south meaning rain to wet snow above say 200m here. Within the main core evap cooling will ensue meaning more low level snow likely but pinpointing this area seems a big task at present.

Edited January 15, 2023 by Kasim Awan

[severe snowstorm]

The rain/showers have now cleared to leave some bright conditions. May not be too bad an afternoon. Temp 5.6C.

[Chris.R]

10 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Problem is onshore at 700hpa for more southern areas and onshore down to 975hpa for a good portion of the night meaning collection of moderated air in the mcr / cheshire area early in night. Will likely cause marginality below 325m here until winds veer N after say 4am when the precip is done sinking south meaning rain to wet snow above say 200m here. Within the main core evap cooling will ensue meaning more low level snow likely but pinpointing this area seems a big task at present.

Yes I meant winds at surface mostly offshore but yes Maritime Layer above until neaar end of precip. Snow only above 200  except if very heavy.

[Kasim Awan]

Just now, Chris.R said:

Yes I meant winds at surface mostly offshore but yes Maritime Layer above until neaar end of precip. Snow only above 200  except if very heavy.

Agreed.

[cheshire snow]

Well at least there is no uncertainty for the end of the week for rain and mild mush,yawn a few overnight frosts and that is it for the vast Majority.

[Spah1]

33 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:

Well at least there is no uncertainty for the end of the week for rain and mild mush,yawn a few overnight frosts and that is it for the vast Majority.

Just look at that. You’d bite someone’s hand off for a chart like that but it looks like just a few frosts are all that’s in order

Edited January 15, 2023 by Spah1

[Kasim Awan]

4 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

Just look at that. You’d bike someone’s hand off for a chart like that but it looks like just a few frosts are all that’s in order

The pattern is too far west again.

[Rob 79812010]

4 hours ago, Alexis said:

You need to watch Carol Kirkwood. Tiny Scottish hamlets get the focus!

I've often seen decent snowfall in Manchester when it wasn't mentioned at all in BBC

[Had Worse]

https://weather.com/en-GB/weather/alerts/localalerts/l/4d1612022874238a8dc5501082b27f1463fe4354e1fb91106528fdebfc78ad44?par=samsung_widget&detailKey=7ec849a5-bcde-3867-a04c-b434bc85c5a4

[WillinGlossop]

9 minutes ago, Had Worse said:

https://weather.com/en-GB/weather/alerts/localalerts/l/4d1612022874238a8dc5501082b27f1463fe4354e1fb91106528fdebfc78ad44?par=samsung_widget&detailKey=7ec849a5-bcde-3867-a04c-b434bc85c5a4

La Ville-Dieu-du-Temple, Tarn-et-Garonne, France 10-Day Weather Forecast - The Weather Channel | Weather.com

WEATHER.COM

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Be prepared with the most accurate 10-day forecast for La Ville-Dieu-du-Temple, Tarn-et-Garonne, France with highs, lows, chance of precipitation from The Weather Channel and Weather.com

Saying freezing rain for here middle & later next week but colder and sunny through next weekend

Hopefully some snowy surprises for back home

[alr1970]

Another 10mm this morning from that band of rain that really didn't want to clear, really heavy at times.

Eventually it cleared but there were a few surprise hail showers in the following sunny gap. Brief, but most unwelcome given I was sawing logs with an electric chainsaw!

[Day 10]

Snow symbols have appeared for early tomorrow eve.

[Joe Snow]

The 12z on face value looks a bit more interesting in terms of Cheshire Gap showers Mon- Wed but even if the gun fires on the Irish Sea shower train I think it’ll be a wintry mix of cold rain, sleet & wet snow flurries probably alternating between the 3 for lower ground. Turning less cold by Thursday & milder by the weekend as it stands currently. 

Edited January 15, 2023 by Joe Snow

[damianslaw]

Keeping an eye on rain radar, there is precipitation over and to the north of N Ireland - mostly rain/sleet over there, assume it is this which is set to move eastwards and provide opportunity for a wintry mix later this evening and overnight.

Hard to pinpoint where it will hit the English mainland and how heavy the precipitation will be.

Current temp 4.8 degrees and skies are clear in parts, if we can lower temps ahead of the precipitation that may help to lower the air temp somewhat before it arrives, but I suspect it will start off quite sleety first and any snow will occur later on aided by evaporative cooling and this will only happen if the precipitation is heavy enough.

Higher ground will have no problem, the fells should have a good cover tomorrow morning on top of the good cover that fell last night - there has been limited thaw above about 450m.

Edited January 15, 2023 by damianslaw

[raul_sbd]

3.7c with 2.9c DP.. coming down nicely

[A Face like Thunder]

Turned into a nice day with some winter sunshine and dry from mid-morning.