Northwest Weather Discussion

[Thunder Snow]

Still a good 00z, I'm starting to get excited might just see some decent snowfall

[A Face like Thunder]

Carol K has now more or less confirmed the above for Thursday into Friday, and backed up by a yellow weather warning for snow and ice. The impression I have is that the further north you are in the region, the more snow you are likely to encounter, so I am not holding my breath at present here in S Cheshire. Interesting that the culprit seems to be an occluded front, shades of Blackpool & the West Coast on 5th/6th February 1996, although that front came straight on to the coast and then stalled rather than via Wales and the W Midlands, as predicted for Thursday.

Edit - a beautiful calm sunny morning today! 

 

Edited March 7, 2023 by A Face like Thunder

[Miamay]

[russwirral]

Urgh.

 

 Terrible gfs

[Day 10]

I'm waiting on the updated warnings, they will be key.

I'm not convinced about the GFS blasting north, it's been terrible since it's update.

[Geordiesnow]

Both the GFS/UKMO still has the more bowling ball shape low but especially in the UKMO case it is slightly flatter than previous runs.

ECM has been more consistent in the more flatter slider set up which is obviously better for everyone apart from Thundersnow as there is a risk the PPN may not reach Carlisle. 

I'll still favour the GFS/UKMO option but it won't take much for the ECM option to occur, really fine margins. 

Back to the hear and now, it is a stunning clear blue skies day with sunshine, something that has been lacking for the past 2 weeks. Hopefully we can see some convection building up so at least see we can see one snow shower. 

 

[Mark_p]

Even if it's not a snowmageddon I hope to see a bit of frontal snowfall at least. Then it can warm up thank you very much I'm ready for spring, what a beautiful morning by the way I love arctic airmasses. 

[Miamay]

Clear blue skies. Lovely. 

[Thunder Snow]

Clear blue skies here touch of frost that's quickly melting away

[WillinGlossop]

Lovely sunny day… can feel warmth in the sun even with chilly breeze… hopefully tomorrow the same… will be interesting to see updated warning and models over the next 24-36 hours… 

[I Cumbria Marra I]

Looks promising i might see my first flake of snow this winter on thursday

[Thunder Snow]

3 minutes ago, I Cumbria Marra I said:

Looks promising i might see my first flake of snow this winter on thursday

Here's hoping 

[Thunder Snow]

Loving the 06z seems a tad further south to me 

[Maz]

3 minutes ago, Thunder Snow said:

Loving the 06z seems a tad further south to me 

Yep, at a quick glance seems very similar to ECMWF "Carlsberg" 0z run!  (100mi+ further south than the GFS 0z). 

[Thunder Snow]

Looks amazing to me hope it's all snow should see some good totals

[cheshire snow]

Arpege model at 56hrs not far off 10cm for parts of cheshire and Merseyside.

[Thunder Snow]

2 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:

Arpege model at 56hrs not far off 10cm for parts of cheshire and Merseyside.

How much does it show for Cumbria 

[cheshire snow]

1 minute ago, Thunder Snow said:

How much does it show for Cumbria 

Nothing unfortunately

Seriously it's difficult to tell can't really get a good screen shot.

 

2 minutes ago, Thunder Snow said:

How much does it show for Cumbria 

 

[Day 10]

Latest GFS ensemble mean looks ok to me.

[Astral Goat Juice]

2 hours ago, alr1970 said:

A scarring of graupel overnight here, and the first beautiful sunny morning I can remember for a long time.

At my low altitude I'm sceptical of snow chances later in the week, but prepared to be pleasantly surprised. Snow to rain very much the likely outcome here.

Look like pictures from the Mars Rover! 

[Iceaxecrampon]

Charts looking potentially nice and festive and maybe a last wintery blast. 

Anyway  I’m having a sweepstake for Thursday 

Choose from any of these belters. 

Warm Sector

Freezing Rain

Marginal at Coasts

More runs needed

Southerly correction

Stall point South of Crewe

****  all in Heswall 

Six Foot in Glossop  

Drip Drip Drip 

Five inches on the bird table 

Edited March 7, 2023 by Iceaxecrampon

[Mark_p]

Met office must be having kittens calling this one. You've got a potentially disruptive event seemingly starting in the morning and lasting through the day but where do you put the amber warning? I feel like further north than imby but I'm pretty certain storm Antoni will be named soon by them. Output for imby shows everything from a bit of snow turning to rain to snowing most of the day a bit more than 48 hours out - nightmare for forecasters 

[Day 10]

Erm, yes please!

Sounds like one of us wrote this

Met warning unaltered which is great.

Edited March 7, 2023 by Day 10

[Thunder Snow]

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See all UK weather warnings 

Heavy snow has the potential to cause significant disruption on Thursday and Friday.

What to expect

There is a small chance that long delays and cancellations on bus, rail and air travel could occur

There is a slight chance that roads may become blocked by deep snow, with many stranded vehicles and passengers

There is a small chance that communities could be cut off for several days

There is a small chance that long interruptions to power supplies and other services, such as gas, water, telephone and mobile phone coverage, may occur

What should I do?

5 tips for staying safe in snow

How winter weather affects cycling

Prepare a winter kit for your car

Further details

Updated: 11:09 (UTC) on Tue 7 Mar 2023

Reason for update

Update to provide additional details on most likely evolution and development.

Snow could develop quite widely across the warning area through Thursday and Friday as a potentially deep area of low pressure moves across the UK. Parts of Northern Ireland, north Wales and northern England are currently expected to see the worst of the conditions develop from early on Thursday, with parts of Scotland and northern England then seeing snow arrive from Thursday afternoon. Snow across central and northern areas will and persist through much of Friday, while across the southern portion of the waring area, snow will turn back to rain through Thursday afternoon and evening. Event totals could bring 3 to 5 cm widely across this area, with 5 to 10 cm of snow across broad areas, even at low elevations, with potentially 15 to 20 cm accumulating across the central and northern areas. Higher elevations, mainly above 150m, of the North Pennines, Southern Uplands, parts of the Central Belt and the southern Highlands may see as much as 30 to 40 cm of snow in places. In addition, there is potential for strong winds, which may lead to blizzard conditions and drifting of lying snow.

[cheshire snow]

4 minutes ago, Day 10 said:

Erm, yes please!

Sounds like one of us wrote this

OK I own up it was me.