Northwest Weather Discussion

[jimben]

Overnight low of -8.6c. 100% snow cover with a depth of 3cm. Watery sunshine at present with temp of -1.4c.

[A Face like Thunder]

Bits and pieces of hail / snow pellets on the car this morning and a hard frost meant de-icing before the car could be used. Shades of January or February despite the earlier sun rises, so it must have been cold last night. Started off sunny but starting to cloud over and bright now rather than sunny. 

[trickydicky]

A quite wintery day in Cumbrialand yesterday. I drove to work on the west coast and encountered heavy wet snow at around Cockermouth that wasn't quite sticking. It snowed more or less all morning at my office very near to the coast without really sticking before it picked up a bit around lunch time and started to stick. I made half hearted excuses about not wanting to drive if it got too bad, and left. I wasn't expecting much if anything but I only had to drive about half a mile in land and road conditions were pretty bad. Very big feathery flakes falling very heavily and sticking on all surfaces, including gritted roads. Road conditions were dicey but cleared around Bassenthwaite. By Keswick there was full snow cover again but falling snow had stopped. After Threlkeld it cleared up and there was no snow at Penrith. The sun was out in the Eden Valley and the temperature around 4c, so I didn't expect anything further here, though I noted the sky looking very black to the north. At about half 3 it darkened in here and started chucking it down with snow. It only snowed for about half an hour but it was enough to leave two inches of very wet snow on all surfaces. Once that passed through it cleared and the soggy snow froze into a crispy covering. Chilly overnight but fog here stopped it getting any lower than -4. 

Overall, with the snow from last Friday, a noteworthy wintery spell. Especially for the western fringe of the Lake District fells which seemed to be the sweetspot on both occasions. Some places that don't usually see very much settling snow at all have had 2 good falls in a week. 

[Mountain Snow]

A good example of how wintry March can be. Nothing extreme like 2013 or 2018 but a decent spell non the less. Heavy snow on and off all day yesterday, only the late afternoon spell stuck properly and lasted. Dipped to -8.1 overnight, most snow now melted. Ready for spring now. 

[StretfordEnd1996]

58 minutes ago, Mountain Snow said:

A good example of how wintry March can be. Nothing extreme like 2013 or 2018 but a decent spell non the less. Heavy snow on and off all day yesterday, only the late afternoon spell stuck properly and lasted. Dipped to -8.1 overnight, most snow now melted. Ready for spring now. 

I've always considered March (earlier March the better) to be more snow/cold reliable than the Winter month of December. 

Cold spells/snaps at this time of year in March just always seem to have a bit of needle/bite about them as well.

Isn't there some historic average that says a White Easter is more common than a White Christmas? (of course Easter moves every year, but this is taking in a long term average). Heard this a few times not sure if it's a myth or not.

[A Face like Thunder]

23 minutes ago, StretfordEnd1996 said:

I've always considered March (earlier March the better) to be more snow/cold reliable than the Winter month of December. 

Cold spells/snaps at this time of year in March just always seem to have a bit of needle/bite about them as well.

Isn't there some historic average that says a White Easter is more common than a White Christmas? (of course Easter moves every year, but this is taking in a long term average). Heard this a few times not sure if it's a myth or not.

Yes, I've heard it as well and from official sources. I think though it partly depends on individual age, experience and location, and also the timing of Easter, for example in my case (from 1960):

White Christmas - 1964 and 1968, (both slight), 1970 and 1981 (Surrey) and 2009 (S Cheshire)

White Easter - 1975 (Surrey) and 2008 (S Cheshire), both March Easters,

so not so in my case. 

I suspect too that the official version limits a 'White Christmas' to one day whilst allowing a 'White Easter' to embrace the full Easter weekend. In 1962 for example, Christmas Day was not 'white' but, by the time the holiday had ended two days later, the snow lay thick on the ground at the start of the coldest winter of the 20th century. 

 

[Empire Of Snow]

45 minutes ago, StretfordEnd1996 said:

I've always considered March (earlier March the better) to be more snow/cold reliable than the Winter month of December. 

Cold spells/snaps at this time of year in March just always seem to have a bit of needle/bite about them as well.

Isn't there some historic average that says a White Easter is more common than a White Christmas? (of course Easter moves every year, but this is taking in a long term average). Heard this a few times not sure if it's a myth or not.

It's all about organised systems, convection and being on the right side of convergence when these systems come through. In UK the Northern you are the more chances of decent snowfalls in March. I posted it a week ago in the Yorkshire thread. Easterlies can provide decent events but they're hit and miss for our areas. Atlantic systems at the right time even at marginal conditions can give good snow events. 

This is an IMBY approach though. 

Speaking of snow etc why METO is back to some strange text forecasting for today? "Rain, sleet and snow moving in the evening"? I can't really understand why they're doing this and they're not being more specific. It looks very unprofessional. 

[Dark Horse]

7 hours ago, StretfordEnd1996 said:

Your location Audenshaw is only 7-8 miles from me I've always found it so strange how just 100m or so lower can make such a big difference to snow accumulation. 

As for thunderstorms while I like them I gave up on them many moons ago. We're in a rubbish location up here for high thunderstorm activity and when they happen they are so short lived anyway. Not only that they are an absolute pain in the backside to forecast - 10x worse than snowfall - they just never seem to come off when they are supposed to or when we've been advised they may happen!

Mostly to do with orographic lifting. The higher you are basically the land squeezes more moisture out of the clouds be it both rain and snow. So the higher you are the more rain and snow you get. More precipitation year round on average.

[Weather-history]

3 hours ago, StretfordEnd1996 said:

 

Isn't there some historic average that says a White Easter is more common than a White Christmas? (of course Easter moves every year, but this is taking in a long term average). Heard this a few times not sure if it's a myth or not.

Posted this a number of times

Since 1985 for my location

White Christmases: 1993, 1995, 1999, 2000, 2004, 2020

White Easters (Easter Day): 1998, 2008

Lying snow on Christmas Day: 1995, 2004, 2009, 2010

Lying snow on Easter Day: 0

Snow falling during Christmas period (24th-26th):  1993, 1995, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2004, 2014, 2020

Lying snow during Christmas period (24th-26th): 1995, 2004, 2009, 2010, 2014

Falling snow during Easter period (Good Friday-Easter Monday): 1994, 1998, 2008, 2021

Lying snow during Easter period (Good Friday-Easter Monday): 1998 (evening of Easter Monday)

Although the stats only go back to 1985, Christmas is clearly ahead of Easter in the snow stakes, so I can extend further back into time with confidence and still say Christmas is ahead of Easter as regards to snow. In the last 50 years, there have been more White Christmas than White Easters, I can say with great confidence. 

Edited March 15, 2023 by Weather-history

[Scuba steve]

Another  awful day cold wet yuk ,roll  on spring 

[carinthian]

My farmer friend who lives in the South Dales above Skipton tells me the only snow so far this past 4 months has been in March. Following a particularly dry Feb , the ground is now very wet from snow melt and rainfall. Not particarly good for lambing season. Looking at the charts , possibly more of the same for the rest of the month. I must admit cold and wet at this time of the year is horrible back in blighty. I would think most would be glad to see the back of this winter that again failed to deliver the real goods of a persistent snowy spell. Meanwhile, back here in the Austrian Alps , mixed weather with thaw and freeze conditions following one notable snowy spell in late January but for the most part mild and dry. An unforgettable winter season vanished by for most in Euro/ UK land. Looking forward to warmth and sunshine now.

C

[Joe Snow]

A slippy start with ice & overnight hail on the ground this morning replaced by steady cold rain this afternoon thoroughly miserable. It’s been a 6/10 kind of winter a very cold  festive frosty spell in early-mid December that got down to -9c locally but was hugely disappointing in terms of a complete lack of snow, a covering of snow  arrived in the mid January cold snap but was followed by a bore fest of a February late winter rescued only by the most recent cold & snowy spell that gave a watered down version of what could have been if it had arrived a few weeks earlier.
 

Notable has been a lack of stormy weather so often characteristic of many a NW Winter in recent years. I’m ready for Spring proper now though there’s no point in longer days if they are as dreary as today has been  

Edited March 15, 2023 by Joe Snow

[A Face like Thunder]

Yes, damp and drizzly all afternoon and chilly despite the absence of much wind. Tomorrow I'm out and about and what's the forecast? Rain, rain and more rain!   

[Rob 79812010]

35 minutes ago, Joe Snow said:

A slippy start with ice & overnight hail on the ground this morning replaced by steady cold rain this afternoon thoroughly miserable. It’s been a 6/10 kind of winter a very cold  festive frosty spell in early-mid December that got down to -9c locally but was hugely disappointing in terms of a complete lack of snow, a covering of snow  arrived in the mid January cold snap but was followed by a bore fest of a February late winter rescued only by the most recent cold spell that gave a watered down version of what could have been if it had arrived a few weeks earlier.
 

Notable has been a lack of stormy weather so often characteristic of many a NW Winter in recent years. I’m ready for Spring proper now though there’s no point in longer days if they are as dreary as today has been  

6 out of 10 is right. Snow and cold events definitely made not a better than normal winter. However, the snow very localised. Not bad all the same

9 minutes ago, Rob 79812010 said:

6 out of 10 is right. Snow and cold events definitely made not a better than normal winter. However, the snow very localised. Not bad all the same

Meant a better than normal winter

[Rob 79812010]

1 hour ago, Dark Horse said:

Mostly to do with orographic lifting. The higher you are basically the land squeezes more moisture out of the clouds be it both rain and snow. So the higher you are the more rain and snow you get. More precipitation year round on average.

I never realised why this was till I joined the forum. Also, so interesting about the snow shadow this side of pennines. We just have to accept that we'll always get more rain than east of pennines but less snow! Unless we have our cheeky little Irish streamers which I love!

[Joe Snow]

2 minutes ago, Rob 79812010 said:

6 out of 10 is right. Snow and cold events definitely made not a better than normal winter. However, the snow very localised. Not bad all the same

Meant a better than normal winter

Yeah locally the Lockdown Winter 2020/21 was snowier here than this past winter, lots of very marginal but heavy falls including the post Storm Christophe dumping of 8cm in just a few hrs but Winter 22/23 was at least seasonal for parts of the season with some snow in the core of winter unlike Winter 21/22 that after a very early November snowfall disintergrated into often mild nothingness. Sore spot of Winter 22/23 for me will be the lack of snow during the December freeze that could have so easily made that festive frosty spell into something magic and memorable especially with it being so close to Christmas and happening in the shortest days of the year that would have guaranteed even modest snow cover for a few days at least. 

[Rob 79812010]

11 minutes ago, Joe Snow said:

Yeah locally the Lockdown Winter 2020/21 was snowier here than this past winter, lots of very marginal but heavy falls including the post Storm Christophe dumping of 8cm in just a few hrs but Winter 22/23 was at least seasonal for parts of the season with some snow in the core of winter unlike Winter 21/22 that after a very early November snowfall disintergrated into often mild nothingness. Sore spot of Winter 22/23 for me will be the lack of snow during the December freeze that could have so easily made that festive frosty spell into something magic and memorable especially with it being so close to Christmas and happening in the shortest days of the year that would have guaranteed even modest snow cover for a few days at least. 

Yes, would have been nice wouldn't it. So did you get 8cm in 20 21? Mustn't  have hit in Manchester. We did get a couple of cm on 4 separate occasions though. No idea why, but these have become more common. The extreme cold spells didnt really help snow much in the 80's in this neck of the woods other than 81. 2009 10 the best in my lifetime for proper cold and deep snow. When I say deep, I mean for Manchester. It was just short of 6 inches and when it came down I was in awe!! We're due another winter like that

[Dark Horse]

20 minutes ago, Rob 79812010 said:

I never realised why this was till I joined the forum. Also, so interesting about the snow shadow this side of pennines. We just have to accept that we'll always get more rain than east of pennines but less snow! Unless we have our cheeky little Irish streamers which I love!

Yeah then Yorkshire tend to miss out as these showers tend to move more in a SSE direction and then into Derbyshire and Midlands. Easterly's can defintely deliver though this side. 2018 most recent example as was January 2013 and loads of other examples from the 90s, 80s that people in here from Manchester have brought up over the last week or so. Never had a snowless winter here so it's not that rubbish. There's always been at least a light covering at some point. Much better than SW England, west Wales and most places down south etc. Although they tend to get a big one once a blue moon with a channel low but then they don't see a flake for years. At least we get a cover every year.

[damianslaw]

5 hours ago, Mountain Snow said:

A good example of how wintry March can be. Nothing extreme like 2013 or 2018 but a decent spell non the less. Heavy snow on and off all day yesterday, only the late afternoon spell stuck properly and lasted. Dipped to -8.1 overnight, most snow now melted. Ready for spring now. 

Yes a notably cold night last night, and with today's max of only 5 degrees, a very cold mean temp past 24 hours. It has been a miserable raw cold day here, early frost lingered thanks to cloud rolling in, rain set in after lunch and now heavy rain.. current temp 3.7 degrees. Cold rain, with snow on high ground.

A wet 24 hours ahead - tomorrow will be one of those dreaded SW airstream type days, mild, but cloud to low level shrouding everything. 

[Rob 79812010]

22 minutes ago, Dark Horse said:

Yeah then Yorkshire tend to miss out as these showers tend to move more in a SSE direction and then into Derbyshire and Midlands. Easterly's can defintely deliver though this side. 2018 most recent example as was January 2013 and loads of other examples from the 90s, 80s that people in here from Manchester have brought up over the last week or so. Never had a snowless winter here so it's not that rubbish. There's always been at least a light covering at some point. Much better than SW England, west Wales and most places down south etc. Although they tend to get a big one once a blue moon with a channel low but then they don't see a flake for years. At least we get a cover every year.

Yes when a snowy easterly works, it works well!

[damianslaw]

57 minutes ago, Rob 79812010 said:

6 out of 10 is right. Snow and cold events definitely made not a better than normal winter. However, the snow very localised. Not bad all the same

Meant a better than normal winter

To some extent the winter shares hallmarks of 17-18, Dec 17 brought cold frosty weather earl-mid month, not to the same depths as Dec 22, but it was largely poor on the snowfall stakes, there was snow in the west midlands and further south, but we missed out, then a warm up run in to christmas, this relented a little after christmas with some more snow, then more mild wet weather to usher in 2018, there was a cold shot mid month just like Jan 2023, the difference was Feb, that was a colder slightly wetter version than Feb 2023, we then had the SSW effect, this time around the SSW effect arrived later in March and far less potent, but here at least just like 2023 has given the snowiest spell of the season, might we see a cold bounce back in a couple of weeks time, just as happened mid March 18, would not be surprised to see a final winter fight back.

Edited March 15, 2023 by damianslaw

[damianslaw]

1 hour ago, carinthian said:

My farmer friend who lives in the South Dales above Skipton tells me the only snow so far this past 4 months has been in March. Following a particularly dry Feb , the ground is now very wet from snow melt and rainfall. Not particarly good for lambing season. Looking at the charts , possibly more of the same for the rest of the month. I must admit cold and wet at this time of the year is horrible back in blighty. I would think most would be glad to see the back of this winter that again failed to deliver the real goods of a persistent snowy spell. Meanwhile, back here in the Austrian Alps , mixed weather with thaw and freeze conditions following one notable snowy spell in late January but for the most part mild and dry. An unforgettable winter season vanished by for most in Euro/ UK land. Looking forward to warmth and sunshine now.

C

Recent Marches have been generally quite kind to the UK, since 2018, often mild , sometimes wet. However, this one feels a throwback to some of those cold wet ones I remember growing up, and has reaffirmed my view March as a whole is and feels more a winter month than Spring, at least until about the last week. I'm firmly in winter mode right now, curtains drawn, heavy rain and a temp 3.6 degrees, even wet days with temps 10-12 degrees don't feel spring like at this time of year.

[trickydicky]

1 hour ago, Joe Snow said:

A slippy start with ice & overnight hail on the ground this morning replaced by steady cold rain this afternoon thoroughly miserable. It’s been a 6/10 kind of winter a very cold  festive frosty spell in early-mid December that got down to -9c locally but was hugely disappointing in terms of a complete lack of snow, a covering of snow  arrived in the mid January cold snap but was followed by a bore fest of a February late winter rescued only by the most recent cold & snowy spell that gave a watered down version of what could have been if it had arrived a few weeks earlier.
 

Notable has been a lack of stormy weather so often characteristic of many a NW Winter in recent years. I’m ready for Spring proper now though there’s no point in longer days if they are as dreary as today has been  

I would say a notable feature of this winter has been the coldness of the frosty periods. Locally anyway. We’ve had 3 distinct spells really. The one at the start of December, one in early to mid January and this last week or so. We hit -11 here in December on a couple of nights but it was consistently around -8/9/10 for about a week. That week in January there was a night/morning at -10 and last Wednesday morning it was -9. Pretty reasonable. Certainly that spell in December was a bit of a what if. Ifwe’d had a bit of snow on the ground we could’ve had a run of very cold nights indeed.

What I think is also noteworthy in recent years is the difficulty in getting cold air and moisture to coincide. Up until last Friday you could have fit all the snow that had fallen here locally since the Beast from the East mkII in mid March 2018 into a standard sized wheelie bin. That includes quite a lot of snow fall events, but never any that amounted to anything worth talking about. But in the same period a lot of frost. 

[damianslaw]

2 minutes ago, trickydicky said:

I would say a notable feature of this winter has been the coldness of the frosty periods. Locally anyway. We’ve had 3 distinct spells really. The one at the start of December, one in early to mid January and this last week or so. We hit -11 here in December on a couple of nights but it was consistently around -8/9/10 for about a week. That week in January there was a night/morning at -10 and last Wednesday morning it was -9. Pretty reasonable. Certainly that spell in December was a bit of a what if. Ifwe’d had a bit of snow on the ground we could’ve had a run of very cold nights indeed.

What I think is also noteworthy in recent years is the difficulty in getting cold air and moisture to coincide. Up until last Friday you could have fit all the snow that had fallen here locally since the Beast from the East mkII in mid March 2018 into a standard sized wheelie bin. That includes quite a lot of snow fall events, but never any that amounted to anything worth talking about. But in the same period a lot of frost. 

From a Cumbria perspective the lack of notable snowfall since March 18 has been down to the lack of frontal activity within cold air, the events of recent days show how these can produce the goods - but arrived a little too late to produce significant snowfall to low ground. We have been porrly positioned for frontal snow events in recent winters, in 20/21 they all slided away to our SW, and this December the same thing happened.. things just didn't quite align right. Convective northerlies and easterlies don't often deliver the snowy goods here unless accompanied by trough/frontal features. The reality is the cold spells since winter 17/18 have largely been thanks to dry anticyclonic conditions, and the wet spells have been predominantly mild / atlantic driven. Hoping for another winter 09-10 again, that was superb for frontal snow events.

[Dark Horse]

49 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

To some extent the winter shares hallmarks of 17-18, Dec 17 brought cold frosty weather earl-mid month, not to the same depths as Dec 22, but it was largely poor on the snowfall stakes, there was snow in the west midlands and further south, but we missed out, then a warm up run in to christmas, this relented a little after christmas with some more snow, then more mild wet weather to usher in 2018, there was a cold shot mid month just like Jan 2023, the difference was Feb, that was a colder slightly wetter version than Feb 2023, we then had the SSW effect, this time around the SSW effect arrived later in March and far less potent, but here at least just like 2023 has given the snowiest spell of the season, might we see a cold bounce back in a couple of weeks time, just as happened mid March 18, would not be surprised to see a final winter fight back.

Wouldn't be surprised but I'm going to look for milder stuff soon. Rarely does a cold spell pack much of a punch as we go into April so I don't see the point. Had snow cover here a couple of times in April 2021 but despite -8 to -10c uppers in the sun it did not feel bitter cold really and the snow quickly disappered by 10am and that was the coldest April since 1989. I actually had to take my coat off as I was getting too warm! Nights were certainly cold though and below freezing. For long lasting cold with a bigger impact it's going to be at the earliest late this year before it can happen again as it won't be facing an increasingly stronger sun like we are going to do. I think we've turned a corner now.