Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived

[Derecho]

6 minutes ago, LetItSnow! said:

That mean for the 25th fuels my suspicion that a cold blast from the north or northeast could be brewing. If we can get those Euro heights sucked up to Greenland then it would keep us locked in. All about how the low interacts with us around Christmas. We may find that our Christmas present will extend far beyond the day itself. I feel confident at the moment that we’re not looking at a longterm switch to mild, southwesterly winds and raging zonality. The atmosphere is acting like it used to in the ‘80s and back then there were many a bite of the cherry. Watch this space.

P.S.

I don’t know about anyone else but my tendency to log on to the forum has skyrocketed since this cold spell I used to check every now and then but now I’ve found myself addicted to seeing the next run play out. Modelrot they call it I think…  

Yes, I'm annoyed about the mild switch for this week as our annual CET record is now certain to go.... but we have much to keep us interested for the christmas period and beyond, provided we can win the tug of war against that pesky Euro high.

[damianslaw]

3 minutes ago, Frank Trough said:

Unless you like rain, the lead up to Christmas is dire. 

Quite normal service, not since 2010 have we had a cold run in to christmas, seems a commonality. Indeed most have been very mild. Some rain and milder temps probably welcomed by many, and for anyone travelling etc and wanting to get out and about it is probably just as well the cold is relenting. If we had experienced 2 weeks of incessant rain and mild windy weather as we normally do, then yes probably would use the word 'dire'. As said though, from the 23rd looks much more interesting.

[LetItSnow!]

1 minute ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Yes, I'm annoyed about the mild switch for this week as our annual CET record is now certain to go.... but we have much to keep us interested for the christmas period and beyond, provided we can win the tug of war against that pesky Euro high.

To be honest, I’m not too miffed about the annual record. It’s been an exceptional year and I think for it to lose its crown at the last minute would have underplayed this year in the future when looking at the records. I’m actually more interested in the prospect of a potentially colder January, and hopefully February too. If we do get a colder winter then it dents our chance of a similarly warm year next year somewhat. Thankfully I feel this is definitely within our options at the moment going forward into the New Year.

[ITSY]

Late to the show today but UKMO and GEM look lovely in the final frames from a hemispheric POV. GFS...well, not so much! 

[Purga]

GEFS show a cooling trend after the pre Christmas muck.

Do we

yet?

 

 

[Coilspring]

25 minutes ago, Snowmut said:

Yes but in those days all they had for long range forecasts were, dodgy weather balloons, seaweed and Wincey Willises left knee as as a pressure gauge! 

And these days we have what exactly? Dodgy models that are always 10 days out? No clue what the weather will do in 4 days? Nothing really changed. 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

This could be interesting.The GEM once again shows sypnotics to dribble over! Rrrrr...I hear you say...look at that iberian ridging...but I'm liking those Height rises towards the NE which would put immense pressure on the PV and if we can get that to play out then we increase the odds of a better 2nd half to winter,considering LRF we're pointing to a milder phase! 

Edited December 16, 2022 by MATTWOLVES

[Uncertainty]

Both the GEFS and GEPS have really flipped their projections over  between runs, day 11 below but the big change is much earlier with a big change in the amplification off the eastern seaboard and corresponding height rises over Greenland.

GEFS 6z

GEFS12z

Perhaps a slight southerly mean flow there. More hp influence and less westerly.

GEPS 0z had Weak heights over Greenland and a weak southwesterly for us.

GEPS 12z

Note the cut off high over Greenland. A bit of a mess over us but that’s because the forecast for the behaviour of the weakening  Atlantic  low to the sw of us is just as, if not more uncertain than the Greenland regime to the north! 

I think this shift is notable and unusually large. The UKMO, whilst not ideal within the timeframe of the run, has really significant amplification taking place over Greenland and I’d have loved to see it’s day 8-10 charts. 
 

It’s also far more palatable than the hideous runs it has churned out of late, 0z today a case in point.

I wouldn’t be surprised if the ec op churned out a really amplified run, given the evidence from the other two ens sets tonight. 
 

The one thing missing for coldies is the euro heights remain stubborn even on the above. It’s been said enough about shifting those but the profile to the N has improved considerably tonight so far.

Here’s how the GEPS mean ends, plenty to consider then tonight as we wait for the eps to add their two penneth.

 

Edited December 16, 2022 by Uncertainty

[MJB]

33 minutes ago, LetItSnow! said:

To be honest, I’m not too miffed about the annual record. It’s been an exceptional year and I think for it to lose its crown at the last minute would have underplayed this year in the future when looking at the records. I’m actually more interested in the prospect of a potentially colder January, and hopefully February too. If we do get a colder winter then it dents our chance of a similarly warm year next year somewhat. Thankfully I feel this is definitely within our options at the moment going forward into the New Year.

But haven't I just read you saying winter is over ......................confused now 

[Stuie]

Greenland high is going to be in Iceland at this rate...

[Mike Poole]

ECM T120 v GEM:

Promising at this early stage.

[TSNWK]

1 minute ago, Stuie W said:

Greenland high is going to be in Iceland at this rate...

I hope so... needs to come towards, apply the south east forcing on the UK trough.

2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM T120 v GEM:

Promising at this early stage.

indeed. if anything I prefer ECM of the two.. I guess 144 will telling...

[TSNWK]

ECM 144 - seems to following its mornings run.

[Stuie]

Stonking artic high is back and an amplified Greeny... don`t see this very often.

[Ali1977]

ECM at 144 looks primed on the eastern seaboard to send WAA up through to link with heights over the pole - I hope.

[Weathizard]

 

Just now, Stuie W said:

Stonking artic high is back and an amplified Greeny... don`t see this very often.

Shame about that perpetual low to our west pumping up that hideous slug to our south.

[Bricriu]

1 minute ago, Weathizard said:

 

Shame about that perpetual low to our west pumping up that hideous slug to our south.

Yes. It's like groundhog day. Did the EC46 last week signal that heights over Europe would disappear towards the New Year. I hope I am not imagining this. 

[Ali1977]

3 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

ECM at 144 looks primed on the eastern seaboard to send WAA up through to link with heights over the pole - I hope.

There she goes, defo a change in patterns coming - for the better I think 

[Derecho]

5 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

 

Shame about that perpetual low to our west pumping up that hideous slug to our south.

If that low kept further west it would make things more interesting for the period just before christmas as colder air would make inroads further south and perhaps helping an undercut, however I think its too much to ask. 

Edited December 16, 2022 by Quicksilver1989

[TSNWK]

4 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

There she goes, defo a change in patterns coming - for the better I think 

potential again - how the heck can we get the trough to south-west dumb bell round the bottom of the vortex north of scandi. if it did then this week was just a little taster

Edited December 16, 2022 by TSNWK

[Weathizard]

7 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

There she goes, defo a change in patterns coming - for the better I think 

Look at that system in the states, brutal winter conditions there if that comes off, unfortunately this kind of thing could fire the jet up, hard to see a system that strong not barrelling through a weak ridge

Edited December 16, 2022 by Weathizard

[That ECM]

And off we go chasing again.

[TSNWK]

Euro heights is the coldies  foe again. such a waste... of good potential

 

[Stuie]

oh the ridge...

 

 

Edited December 16, 2022 by Stuie W

[Weathizard]

1 minute ago, Stuie W said:

oh the ridge...

 

Will this system upstream be friend or foe, could get some serious WAA being pumped up by this beast, or it could fire up the jet.

9/10 will be interesting.