Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived

[MJB]

Snow on Xmas Eve for most if the Control is to be believed 

[Jan 87]

something like pert 14 is what we need to see longer term. 

[clark3r]

Just now, MJB said:

Snow on Xmas Eve for most if the Control is to be believed 

I’m sure the low to the west would be a slider too delivering snow on its northern Edge for the big day I might be wrong though 

[NewEra21]

4 minutes ago, Jan 87 said:

control is better. no point looking beyond xmas at this stage

 

 

1 minute ago, Jan 87 said:

something like pert 14 is what we need to see longer term. 

As long as charts like above are still in the mix, anything could still happen over the Christmas period as of yet. At least there's some hope, unlike most years.

[Harsh Climate]

1 minute ago, clark3r said:

I’m sure the low to the west would be a slider too delivering snow on its northern Edge for the big day I might be wrong though 

Its a great run for scotland. I'm hoping its just showing those lows from 23rd a couple hundred miles too north ; )

[January Snowstorm]

8 minutes ago, Harsh Climate said:

Its a great run for scotland. I'm hoping its just showing those lows from 23rd a couple hundred miles too north ; )

Isn't it strange how we have very few Scottish members. Maybe they just get it every year so it's no big deal. It does look like a white one there

[Harsh Climate]

Just now, January Snowstorm said:

Isn't it strange how we have very few Scottish members. Maybe they just get it every year so it's no big deal. It does look like a white one there

Yeah or maybe they have had there snow fix for now, think they just like to stay in their own scotish thread lol 

[Jan 87]

snow or rain event on xmas day on the control 

The old M4 corridor again!

 

[nick sussex]

Here’s the day ten GEM .

Two areas in red .One low heights southern Greenland and that low over Iberia which supports that small high over the UK .

As you get the dig south of the first one this amplifies the jet ahead so you need that heading ne and then the jet loops back sw into the Low Countries .

 

[MJB]

I'd take the Control , chilly and snow around on CE , CD and BD 

[TEITS]

Have those providing the observational data gone on strike like everyone else? At the moment it seems these models are being run on a ZX Spectrum.

All I can say is are we taking steps towards a colder outlook or not? The answer is yes a small step towards a colder Xmas for all the UK rather than just Scotland.

I cannot even bother with beyond Boxing day right now because if the models have it wrong at +96 then these errors will only grow with each passing hour.

[MJB]

Just wondering on the Control if the cold to the NE will move across further down the line 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

It's Sunday and I'm a tad confused...some of the posts claiming its poor moving forward,while others claim its looking better!

Ecm ens look better than this time yesterday with a fair chunk of colder runs.

And while some on here are saying things could go down the pan into January....we have the met talking of greater chance of cold spells!

Welcome to the British weather where man or beast do not seem to have a scooby in what direction we are actually heading.

Go and get the decorations up and ease some stress

Edited December 18, 2022 by MATTWOLVES

[The Eagle]

Time to rename the thread "The Cold has gone"?

[Derecho]

13 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

It's Sunday and I'm a tad confused...some of the posts claiming its poor moving forward,while others claim its looking better!

Ecm ens look better than this time yesterday with a fair chunk of colder runs.

And while some on here are saying things could go down the pan into January....we have the met talking of greater chance of cold spells!

Welcome to the British weather where man or beast do not seem to have a scooby in what direction we are actually heading.

Go and get the decorations up and ease some stress

Looking at the charts this morning, I was a bit surprised by how downbeat some of the posts are. The GEFS 06z ensembles are coming in and there is a lot of support emerging now for a cold christmas with the potential for snow if things allign correctly.

Yes we do have a strong PV but that was also the case in December 2009. People were complaining back then about how high pressure was dominating over Europe and the output was hideous in the first part of the month.

All it took however was a bit of WAA and the rest of the winter turned out to be blocked. The models flipped from big Iberian highs to easterlies in a very short space of time and it was a single GFS operational run that came up out of nowhere. I clearly remember everyone being surprised at the high moving up north and everyone initially dismissed it.

I think perhaps there is a bit of overemphasis on the northern hemisphere views and how much a change in our little part of the world can affect things is perhaps being overlooked. In all honesty, it probably will be a toppler northerly but all it needs is some improved WAA and we start to tip the see saw the other way.

Very interesting output this morning, though no northerly is guaranteed yet if low pressure deepens to our west.

Edited December 18, 2022 by Quicksilver1989

[IDO]

JFF the D16 GFS op: 

I think this is where we are heading for the end of the year. The tPV displacing the Arctic High and cycling around the regions. There will be pressure rises in the Atlantic-Euro sector, and this run we have the repeat of the Atlantic ridge/Azores trough/Euro high combo that we will see in a weeks time. With the E Pacific high, that is def one option of a few, so more runs needed obviously at this point.

[Cymro]

46 minutes ago, IDO said:

There is no sign that the vortex to our NW will setup there. It looks like it will pass through, in line with the last couple of months. The Arctic high moving to Siberia means that the tPV chunks will move towards Greenland/NE Canada for the interim. The mean suggests it is transient.

D8-11: 

Hallelujah for some decorum and sense!

The polar vortex of doom posts are really tedious as are pinning hopes on SSW for any major cold outcomes. I much preferred observing the models before February 2018. 

Now we seem constantly fixed on MJO cycles and polar vortices post day 10! 

[goosey007]

18 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

It's Sunday and I'm a tad confused...some of the posts claiming its poor moving forward,while others claim its looking better!

Ecm ens look better than this time yesterday with a fair chunk of colder runs.

And while some on here are saying things could go down the pan into January....we have the met talking of greater chance of cold spells!

Welcome to the British weather where man or beast do not seem to have a scooby in what direction we are actually heading.

Go and get the decorations up and ease some stress

Any ideas why the op has been an outlier to varying degrees over the past few days ….surely if it’s correct and that much more accurate it’s ensembles are a waste of time 

[pdiddy]

30 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

Isn't it strange how we have very few Scottish members. Maybe they just get it every year so it's no big deal. It does look like a white one there

There are quite a few of us... just that it has been somewhat less marginal for snow for us recently, so can simply look out of the window!  I do see a lot of comments suggesting "snowmageddon for Scotland" etc. when a Northerly is modeled, but that rarely delivers for Edinburgh and Glasgow, just  the far North and coasts.  And it doesn't snow here every year either, just to dispel the myths.

Anyway, the models showing potential battleground along the boundary of mild and colder air.  Potentially cold enough for wintry weather, but nothing spectacular in my opinion.

[Speedbird]

31 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

Isn't it strange how we have very few Scottish members. Maybe they just get it every year so it's no big deal. It does look like a white one there

I visit both this and the Scotland thread.

I am sure that other people north of the border do the same, however I do find that there is very little mention of Scottish weather on this thread with contributors seeming to comment on weather that will affect their local/areas of England - a point I have made recently when weather charts were posted which went as far as the England/Scotland border.

How inclusive !!!

[MATTWOLVES 3]

15 minutes ago, goosey007 said:

Any ideas why the op has been an outlier to varying degrees over the past few days ….surely if it’s correct and that much more accurate it’s ensembles are a waste of time 

If you have 30 runs in a suite and half or 3 quarters go milder or colder how could you say they would be a waste of time? You need ensemble agreement to make a more solid and accurate forecast.

Can you imagine how many times a forecast would be changed daily if we only had the det run to use?

The bigger picture is complex and for me that's why we are seeing so many alternating runs.

We always need ensemble agreement when making a more rounded forecast,especially beyond that critical 7 day period.

Put it this way if all the det runs were going cold now,but the ens were not backing them up....I can guarantee you many on here would be saying...im not having it until there's ensemble support! But it appears some seem more convinced when it's a milder outlook they're showing.

Edited December 18, 2022 by MATTWOLVES

[cold snap]

New thread time please.  

[goosey007]

17 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

If you have 30 runs in a suite and half or 3 quarters go milder or colder how could you say they would be a waste of time? You need ensemble agreement to make a more solid and accurate forecast.

Can you imagine how many times a forecast would be changed daily if we only had the det run to use?

The bigger picture is complex and for me that's why we are seeing so many alternating runs.

We always need ensemble agreement when making a more rounded forecast,especially beyond that critical 7 day period.

Put it this way if all the det runs were going cold now,but the ens were not backing them up....I can guarantee you many on here would be saying...im not having it until there's ensemble support! But it appears some seem more convinced when it's a milder outlook they're showing.

Yes not saying they are a waste of time and understand the forecast logic …. Just confused why so many consecutive runs where the op is the outlier and your last few sentences add to my confusion as you say people seem to be taking the op as gospel …….

[Quantock]

6 minutes ago, DanStormUK said:

I think i'd rather safely bet on 15C over Christmas period than Snow.  Safer bet.

New year looks mild/SW wind rain too.

15C in the Scillies and snow in Shetland on Xmas day is a reasonable double this year......

[ICE COLD]

8 minutes ago, DanStormUK said:

I think i'd rather safely bet on 15C over Christmas period than Snow.  Safer bet.

New year looks mild/SW wind rain too.

But the bit between looks cold