Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived

[Nick F]

Nice to see the -5C T850 line reach southern Britain in the 06z GEFS means by the 27th. 

OK, much of England and Wales may miss out on a white Xmas Day, though this could still shift south from the current 06z op, but some support for ridge to build north out west Boxing Day onwards to allow the cold arctic air south across the UK. Whether it'll get toppled quickly or not is too far out to say yay or nay for now.

[RJBingham]

7 minutes ago, MJB said:

I get what you are saying but being blunt I have zero interest in snow in Scotland ( unless it's moving south on an active front ) , I am totally about what is going on IMBY ....why wouldn't I be 

Same here, I'm closer to Amsterdam and Dublin than Edinburgh. 

[Lampostwatcher]

Gfs 06z 

Nice run 

24th onwards still up for grabs 

If we didnt have this current cold spell we would all be very happy with what we are seeing 🌨❄

[Cold Winter Night]

Some very strange posts this morning.

The outlook has improved IMO.
Perhaps not for a White Christmas, which I would love to have too, but let's be realistic, maybe expecting a certain rare weather type (snow) to occur at a very precise location (your residence) in a very narrow and precise time window (24/25 December) is setting yourself up for failure.

Yet, still, the further North in the UK you go, the higher the chance that this event really might occur this year, more than can be said about many a Christmas.

After Christmas, the latest ensembles have been trending colder. Both EPS and GEFS.
Good signs.

Some are talking about the Euro heights as if they have been there forever, the opposite is true, they are just building today, and 40% of the EPS remove those Euro heights again before Day 10 on the 0z EPS.

In the extended, blocking patterns are still very much prevalent.

The Dutch De Bilt plume is notably colder after Christmas than it was for yesterday's 12z.
Let's say I've seen worse plumes in December.

The knee jerking in here is more based on emotion than on actual model output, and tbh a bit weird after an already cold first 2,5 weeks of winter, with snow and frost and ice for many.

[SLEETY]

27 minutes ago, DanStormUK said:

I think i'd rather safely bet on 15C over Christmas period than Snow.  Safer bet.

New year looks mild/SW wind rain too.

posting charts 15 days ahead to make his point.Absolutely nailed on isnt it at that timeframe

 

Ecm chucking out mild outliers day after day why should we believe anything being shown by any models,even 5-6 days  is pushing it.

Edited December 18, 2022 by SLEETY

[SW Saltire]

33 minutes ago, MJB said:

I get what you are saying but being blunt I have zero interest in snow in Scotland ( unless it's moving south on an active front ) , I am totally about what is going on IMBY ....why wouldn't I be 

Surely this thread is one for the ‘UK’? Where it is mentioned that for the South it shows X, Centre Y and the North Z.

Use the regional threads for ‘is it going to snow IMBY’ 

Why would I care what it shows for Brighton et al? Given your weather in winter is often far milder than that experienced in Scotland (and far warmer in summer etc).

Edited December 18, 2022 by SW Saltire

[MJB]

1 minute ago, SW Saltire said:

Surely this thread is one for the ‘UK’? Where it is mentioned that for the South it shows X, Centre Y and the North Z.

Use the regional threads for ‘is it going to snow IMBY’ 

Why would I care what it shows for Brighton? Given your weather in winter is often far milder than that experienced in Scotland (and far warmer in summer etc).

I don't disagree hence why I post charts for the whole of the UK and comment accordingly  ,  but doesn't mean I am so excited about 30 cm of snow 500 + miles away , why would I be ? 

I don't need to ask " is it going to snow IMBY " the charts show us that ( not accurately it has to be said ) 

 

[MJB]

Certainly a period of interest for all 

[Lampostwatcher]

2 minutes ago, MJB said:

Certainly a period of interest for all 

They look great 

[Paul_1978]

1 hour ago, DanStormUK said:

I think i'd rather safely bet on 15C over Christmas period than Snow.  Safer bet.

New year looks mild/SW wind rain too.

What do you mean “the new year looks mild”, that’s a T+384 chart!

[feb1991blizzard]

1 hour ago, DanStormUK said:

I think i'd rather safely bet on 15C over Christmas period than Snow.  Safer bet.

New year looks mild/SW wind rain too.

For anyone who wants to see what a proper Bartlett looks like - that is it.

[DanStormUK]

6 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

What do you mean “the new year looks mild”, that’s a T+384 chart!

Well I would have thought Low pressure becoming established in the South West, is bound to lead to mild conditions for Christmas and new year.

It's not often we get a cold northerly blast like we had recently.

[Georgina]

7 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

What do you mean “the new year looks mild”, that’s a T+384 chart!

That’s unbelievably confusing especially for newbies why post charts that are T+384 away and add a statement of mild for new year ? Not helpful at all 

[tight isobar]

7 hours ago, tight isobar said:

We couldn’t have asked for better this morning imo- I would have been much more “ cautious” with a massive sudden flip... we’re slowly getting there   

Re- post... and tbh the steps have gone a little further ahead since the 6z- some of the posts “ of dread still- And always will baffle me”. There’s PLENTY to be optimistic about, if colder snowier weather is ya thing!...I’ll leave this here until the nxt suites @12z...

[maplesyrup]

Looking at a chart at T+384, you might as well be gazing through a crystal ball given how much the models are struggling atm.

Edited December 18, 2022 by maplesyrup

[tight isobar]

11 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

For anyone who wants to see what a proper Bartlett looks like - that is it.

But the water to pass under the bridge b4 then- is well and truly cloudy ️- And theres a lot of it.. And posting a chart way out at them time plots is about as much use as it’s likely verify!

Edited December 18, 2022 by tight isobar

[MATTWOLVES 3]

10 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

For anyone who wants to see what a proper Bartlett looks like - that is it.

Mate your very lucky not to have been banned for just showing such an ugly sypnotic!

[Anthony Burden]

58 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Nice to see the -5C T850 line reach southern Britain in the 06z GEFS means by the 27th. 

OK, much of England and Wales may miss out on a white Xmas Day, though this could still shift south from the current 06z op, but some support for ridge to build north out west Boxing Day onwards to allow the cold arctic air south across the UK. Whether it'll get toppled quickly or not is too far out to say yay or nay for now.

Hi Nick,The charts beginning to support a colder outlook after Christmas,the south looking possibly to join the north so lots of interest for the cold lovers.

[Battleground Snow]

Mjo pushing into the favourable phases for scandi heights towards new years, would like to see a bit more amplitude though.

ECM 06z moving things a bit quicker east which should be helpful later on.

144 control will be worth a look.

Mogreps still highlights a downwards trend on 06z, but does have a wide scatter.

Edited December 18, 2022 by Battleground Snow

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Good news folks..I think the messiah of mogreps which is me states a growing set of colder runs from the North with time..Birmingham for instance pushes closer to -10 with some runs.

I think we could be going colder again.. whisper it quietly.

Come on folks I'm working overtime to get these colder runs further South.

Edited December 18, 2022 by MATTWOLVES

[Nick2373]

11 minutes ago, DanStormUK said:

Oh jesus forget it, I will delete the post for the snow rampers. 

No one is suggesting or even trying to have a pop at you friend, they are pointing out a chart that far is FI to be fair. You would be lucky to even get an idea 7 days out at the minute.

[Penrith Snow]

18 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

For anyone who wants to see what a proper Bartlett looks like - that is it.

Paul Bartlett would be proud of that! RIP Paul.

I remember reading that Paul was slightly annoyed that he will be remembered for the Bartlett High as he was a cold lover and ramper.

The original Bartlett was christened in February 1998 and the term has stuck since.

Uncle Barty is to me a funny take on Paul’s original creation 

Andy

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

5 minutes ago, Nick2373 said:

No one is suggesting or even trying to have a pop at you friend, they are pointing out a chart that far is FI to be fair. You would be lucky to even get an idea 7 days out at the minute.

Unfortunately if mild conditions show up at t168 they are more likely to verify than cold conditions!

This mild breakdown was picked up by models ages ago and unfortunately verified without much problem!

Edited December 18, 2022 by prolongedSnowLover

[Nick2373]

Just now, prolongedSnowLover said:

Unfortunately mild conditions show up at t168 they are more likely to verify than cold conditions!

This mild breakdown was picked up by models ages ago and unfortunately verified without much problem!

The chart posted was t384?? perhaps this weeks loto numbers if possible please. 

[DrJim]

36 minutes ago, DanStormUK said:

Was my fault,  posting very mild charts on the same day people are having their snow washed away was bound to cause upset.  Sorry.
 

Ive been watching the forum for nearly a decade and I've seen this happen in the Model thread almost every year. With synoptics like we have at the moment the atmosphere in here could be cut with a knife, no pun intended. The models are having a very hard time figuring this unusual spell out . In my humble opinion FI is anything beyond 5-7 days at the moment. It's only December and there is a lot still to play for in my opinion. I've seen 3+ inches of snow on the ground in my location on March 13th before...

Edited December 18, 2022 by DrJim