Model Output Discussion - Christmas week and beyond

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

11 minutes ago, Drifter said:

Means nothing to be honest. 

Exactly! What good are the models when even the professionals like the Met Office get it wrong ? 
 

It doesn’t look like any charts are showing anything remotely wintry over the southern half of the UK in the foreseeable.

[Eagle Eye]

Need to keep an eye on the AO, slowly moving towards negative, poleward thermal transfer isn't just good for vertical thermal movement into the Strat its also good for being able to transfer some heat into the pole. Unlikely to be as sustained or as strong as last time but with a bit of luck we may at least get some decent cold snd hopeful some snow out of this pattern (possible that a Scandi high could evolve), preferably on my birthday .

Edited December 26, 2022 by Eagle Eye

[feb1991blizzard]

Just about 1 single eps member showing the desired outcome out of a 50 member suite!

[northwestsnow]

Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

Just about 1 single eps member showing the desired outcome out of a 50 member suite!

2% chance

You watch,EC46 will be spot on now it's crap.

[zubzero]

11 minutes ago, MJB said:

I used to take note of EC 46 but last year it got absolutely nothing right , it's a crap model BUT what model is good after 168hrs 

It's not crap, people take a mean chart in isolation and jump to conclusions. Obviously the futher out the less accurate it becomes but you need to view the entire data suite to get a broad view of the medium range outlook. 

[Earthshine]

Strong support for mild into the foreseeable.  Good news for keeping those bills down.

[MJB]

15 minutes ago, zubzero said:

It's not crap, people take a mean chart in isolation and jump to conclusions. Obviously the futher out the less accurate it becomes but you need to view the entire data suite to get a broad view of the medium range outlook. 

Isn't that what I said ?

After the first week , it is crap end of , you name me a model in the last 10-14 days that could get near the xmas outcome we've just had , it was only within the 120 - 144 range it could pinned down .

EC 46 will show a mass of blocking one week and drop it the following BUT to repeat is no different to any other model 

[zubzero]

Just now, MJB said:

Isn't that what I said ?

After the first week , it is crap end of , you name me a model in the last 10-14 days that could get near the xmas outcome we've just had , it was only within the 120 - 144 range it could pinned down .

EC 46 will show a mass of blocking one week and drop it the following BUT to repeat is no different to any other model 

It's not crap at all its your interpretation of the data that is. It's very rare that a data suite will show a very strong signal post 10 days. 

If your seeing a mass of blocking by looking at a mean chart in the +168 range, and your interpretation of said chart don't come to fruition what's crap? Your view of the model, or the model?? At a basic level it's done by % chance.

 

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/opencharts_extended_meteogram?base_time=202212260000&lat=51.4333&lon=-1.0&station_name=Reading

The key is at the bottem.

 

[Snowmaggedon]

27 minutes ago, Earthshine said:

Strong support for mild into the foreseeable.  Good news for keeping those bills down.

Don’t know about anyone else but we still put our heating on at least once a day. It’s bitter outside right now too. 

[northwestsnow]

Its turning into a horror show

[The Enforcer]

Some noticeable changes to the local synoptics between T+72 & T+84:

T+84

T+72

Two bowling ball LPs north of UK obliterated, northerly feed being introduced to Scotland. Incoming LPs across the Atlantic are further east.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

35 minutes ago, Earthshine said:

Strong support for mild into the foreseeable.  Good news for keeping those bills down.

Only problem is many on here (me included) are hunting for cold and snow and not for a way of saving on the Electricity and gas bill! I'm pretty sure many of us could cope with a good 10 day freeze and copious amounts of Snow...its hardly a mirror image of 63 where many of us would have ended up in trouble. And tbh the heat of last summer would have caused far many more to have suffered than us experiencing a week or so big freeze.

Just to add I think some are expecting ec46 to perform miracles and to show the way for continuous blocking...these models will rarely deviate from the normal at such a long lead time..Blocking is not your normal pattern for this part of the Hemisphere,and the models will always struggle with it..bring us the norm and the mods will nail it 90% of the time. I was not very impressed with it last year tbh,and just like those long range met updates they leave much to be desired..colder mid January downgraded to colder shots from the NW bringing heavy snow showers further North.. followed by a return to milder conditions..utterly bizarre at times! 

And you can literally guarantee now that for every coming season they will state temps largely expected to be above average! And you know why? Global warming bias,which all the models have programmed into them to cater for a warming world. So if we do end up with gr8 extremes in the future..ie a batch of significant wintry spells I can assure you there's a good chance it will be missed or not accurately forecasted! 

I'm still hearing that after a strong start to the pv these next couple of weeks,it will weaken...whether this means a split further down the line or a stretch...im not sure.. but a stretched Vortex could deliver just like it did earlier this month. If all fails this month I'm ready to go again I'm Feb...if that fails then March....after that I will give in hope! 3 more months and as far as I'm concerned..we can do the obituaries on these long range models come March..then we can really judge them to see how they performed...until then it's far to early too judge.

Edited December 26, 2022 by MATTWOLVES

[bluearmy]

14 minutes ago, MJB said:

Isn't that what I said ?

After the first week , it is crap end of , you name me a model in the last 10-14 days that could get near the xmas outcome we've just had , it was only within the 120 - 144 range it could pinned down .

EC 46 will show a mass of blocking one week and drop it the following BUT to repeat is no different to any other model 

      

 

plenty of ec46 runs over the past month have indicated the euro high for Xmas to new year week. A few of them are attached above. 

[feb1991blizzard]

3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

      

 

plenty of ec46 runs over the past month have indicated the euro high for Xmas to new year week. A few of them are attached above. 

True, although the one on the far right is a poor run because it depicts a trough West of Spain and we have nothing of the sort.

[bluearmy]

4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

True, although the one on the far right is a poor run because it depicts a trough West of Spain and we have nothing of the sort.

the week 26th to 2nd has troughing to our west extending south to the cut off canaries fella  

[Ali1977]

The differences at day 10 on the last 2 runs prove day 10 is deep FI, they are quite different in our neck of the woods . Therefore I feel we could easily see something better pop up at this point as the MJO moves along. 

Edited December 26, 2022 by Ali1977

[feb1991blizzard]

3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

the week 26th to 2nd has troughing to our west extending south to the cut off canaries fella  

Ok - not perfect and D10-17 not extreme FI but decent - get your point -  i will give it a pass.

[Bricriu]

1 hour ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

Exactly! What good are the models when even the professionals like the Met Office get it wrong ? 
 

It doesn’t look like any charts are showing anything remotely wintry over the southern half of the UK in the foreseeable.

I am inclined to believe they get it right most of the time, though . Although I don't have stats to back it up. Of course even if my assumption  is correct they could be wrong regarding their latest update. I am just worried that if the previous updates about a colder turn around mid January were influenced by the MJO, that they may have picked up a new signal regarding the MJO phase not being good enough this time around to promote blocking far enough North to bring cold our way.  

Edited December 26, 2022 by Bricriu

[Eagle Eye]

Small signs of a better shunting of the upper Stratosphere and Stratopause vortex with the warming signal over Eurasia backing up the Pacific Wave-1 signal so small hints of a strong Wave-1 signal stretching right up into the Stratosphere and really shunting up that aspect ratio. I would prefer to see tentative signs of Wave-2 to backup the Wave-1 signal as Wave-2's are much more linked with major SSW's but that's if one were to happen in the first place. I'm still being cautious though the disconnect between the Trop and Strat vortex is clear to see, it remains fairly far out for now. Notice the strong amount of EHF reaching the upper Strat and into the Stratopause on today's update as they are looking to back up the wave pattern. Notice the clear displacement in the Stratopause; if that can force reflection down to the upper Stratosphere (especially 10hPa) area then we can start to get fairly excited but like I said, I would prefer it if we did see Wave-2 increasing as the upwards wave flux activity may wane slightly early which would weaken the reflective Strat properties without Wave-2. It's a good update but still too far out for my liking and it'll be a long wait to see how things evolve. The thermal gradient and change in vortex placement is what I'm going to be looking at as things get closer as they will have a big impact on whether or not a SSW happens in the first place. Beware that a minor SSW is a possibility unless upward wave flux doesn't wane or Wave-2 comes out of pretty much nowhere and that's if we see a SSW happen. It's still unlikely but based off how the upper Strat and near the Stratopause is evolving there are tentative signs that we're moving in the right direction for one...

[Bricriu]

5 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:

Small signs of a better shunting of the upper Stratosphere and Stratopause vortex with the warming signal over Eurasia backing up the Pacific Wave-1 signal so small hints of a strong Wave-1 signal stretching right up into the Stratosphere and really shunting up that aspect ratio. I would prefer to see tentative signs of Wave-2 to backup the Wave-1 signal as Wave-2's are much more linked with major SSW's but that's if one were to happen in the first place. I'm still being cautious though the disconnect between the Trop and Strat vortex is clear to see, it remains fairly far out for now. Notice the strong amount of EHF reaching the upper Strat and into the Stratopause on today's update as they are looking to back up the wave pattern. Notice the clear displacement in the Stratopause; if that can force reflection down to the upper Stratosphere (especially 10hPa) area then we can start to get fairly excited but like I said, I would prefer it if we did see Wave-2 increasing as the upwards wave flux activity may wane slightly early which would weaken the reflective Strat properties without Wave-2. It's a good update but still too far out for my liking and it'll be a long wait to see how things evolve. The thermal gradient and change in vortex placement is what I'm going to be looking at as things get closer as they will have a big impact on whether or not a SSW happens in the first place. Beware that a minor SSW is a possibility unless upward wave flux doesn't wane or Wave-2 comes out of pretty much nowhere and that's if we see a SSW happen. It's still unlikely but based off how the upper Strat and near the Stratopause is evolving there are tentative signs that we're moving in the right direction for one...

When was the last time a displacement of the Vortex worked out for us? Maybe I am reading your post all wrong but I get the impression you think a displacement is more likely at this stage, unless we get the Wave 2.

Edited December 26, 2022 by Bricriu

[markw2680]

Why does many on here take every run as gospel? Wasn’t long ago we was staring down the barrel to a massive freeze, kept hearing the words locked in? Yes we had a couple of weeks or so of cold frosty winters weather but was mainly dry and boring in my book.

All I’m saying is the model runs will and do change pretty rapidly once a signal is picked up, so yes may look pretty uninspiring for the foreseeable at present but things will look different in a week or so….maybe time for a little break 

[Eagle Eye]

8 minutes ago, Bricriu said:

When was the last time a displacement of the Vortex worked out for us? Maybe I am reading your post all wrong but I get the impression you think a displacement is more likely at this stage unless we get the Wave 2.

Yes, Wave-1 favours a displacement compared to a split hence why I'm hoping for Wave-2 though if we get enough upwards wave flux a displacement can help us at least partly as that might be enough to weaken (though not reverse probably) the Trop zonal winds. Right now, we're having to take what we've got unfortunately but that's often the way Winter goes for us, I take a 30% chance (as a guess) of a SSW right now and then a further 30-40% of it helping us get cold (if it is indeed a displacement) compared to some recent Winters to be honest. The Trop isn't significantly zonal and AAM is +VE right now though we should start losing it over the next few days, it should stay fairly neutral and prone to upwards rebounds. Meaning that should a weaker (even if not reversed) Strat reflect it's weaker zonal winds down due to large upwards wave flux (some new research suggests this is a good indicator of the Strat reflecting at least partly) then we should see the Trop zonal winds weaken and so cold chances may go slightly up. It's not the best pattern but it's not the worst I can think of.

Edited December 26, 2022 by Eagle Eye

[Empire Of Snow]

Just now, Mariescb said:

So can you tell me what the difference is between someone getting giddy over Narnia charts and someone getting excited over milder charts? This is a MODEL thread, not a cold lovers only thread and people have the right to have a weather preference, especially when the models back up said preference. Some of you want to make snowmen others want lower bills. Each to their own.

Are you serious? You can discuss cold and mild weather conditions here as winter goes on. Have I denied to you the right to talk about all this? Seeking mild weather for financial reasons has no place in this thread. It's confusing, it's wrong. 

[feb1991blizzard]

The first attempt is now guaranteed to be Fizzler (minor warming), however, the secondary warming is coming hot on its heels, it could be we need a few attempts, there's a small cluster on the EC 46 going for a late Jan SSW - analogues for this - 91,09. and 12 - i think anything remotely wintry for South UK gone pretty much for first 2 thirds of Jan but i don't subscribe to the view that Feb is a bust for cold just because its a nina year.

[RhHh]

10 minutes ago, markw2680 said:

Why does many on here take every run as gospel? Wasn’t long ago we was staring down the barrel to a massive freeze, kept hearing the words locked in? Yes we had a couple of weeks or so of cold frosty winters weather but was mainly dry and boring in my book.

All I’m saying is the model runs will and do change pretty rapidly once a signal is picked up, so yes may look pretty uninspiring for the foreseeable at present but things will look different in a week or so….maybe time for a little break 

I think you'll find that most people look at the models together with the met Office long range forecast and lose all hope of seeing snow.