Model Output Discussion - Christmas week and beyond

[KTtom]

27 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

Can we see that hemispherically please, from here looks like something is trying to happen to our west instead. Probably not much but can't tell properly from this chart.

 

[Alexis]

2 hours ago, Kasim Awan said:

gfs vs all the rest though unfortunately.

To be fair, there is no 6z ECM or UKMO

We'll have to wait until the 12z runs to find out it was completely wrong

[Jono E]

Forget loco-zonal, we are going full blown pano-zonal, Europe wide. The PV becomes well established, it’s a difficult beast to break down. A real kick in the teeth, all fingers and toes crossed for February !

[Don]

3 minutes ago, Jono E said:

Forget loco-zonal, we are going full blown pano-zonal, Europe wide. The PV becomes well established, it’s a difficult beast to break down. A real kick in the teeth, all fingers and toes crossed for February !

It's got to that stage, next it will be March.....

[Lampostwatcher]

3 minutes ago, Jono E said:

Forget loco-zonal, we are going full blown pano-zonal, Europe wide. The PV becomes well established, it’s a difficult beast to break down. A real kick in the teeth, all fingers and toes crossed for February !

When the 3 main models 

Ecm

Gfs

Ukmo 

All agree at T72 you can virtually say that the weather will be 90% accurate 

So why right off a whole a month 

[alexisj9]

29 minutes ago, KTtom said:

 

Thanks, looks completely different this way. Oh well, doesn't even look the same in the Atlantic, and there isn't a high touching Greenland. I get it, it was the eastern tip of Canada not Greenland, got the twist with us central in my head now.

Edited December 28, 2022 by alexisj9

[Don]

6 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

Thanks, looks completely different this way. Oh well, doesn't even look the same in the Atlantic, and there isn't a high touching Greenland. I get it, it was the eastern tip of Canada not Greenland, got the twist with us central in my head now.

In other words pants?!! 

[Day 10]

So much doom and gloom in here at present, just flicking through the archives while it's quiet.....

This day in 1990 didn't look too great for snow fans with a raging vortex....

Fast forward to 6 weeks to early Feb 1991....

I would happily pass on January for a spell like this again!

For what it's worth I'm not writing off an entire month or the Winter for that matter, I'm sure Winter will return, maybe sooner rather than later who know's.

 

Edited December 28, 2022 by Day 10

[bluearmy]

2 hours ago, Battleground Snow said:

I was quite disheartened by the 00z runs overnight, but the 06z GFS picking up a significant change as early as 144 has reignited my interest.

Latest ecm mjo plot has again slightly amplified, and has it in phase 7 for 5-6 days. Will this be enough for a robust scandi high or just a transient high? Many competing factors at play

Yesterdays attached for comparison 

I’ve rarely seen a decent MJO affect without it being outside the COD - we were in a place where the trop seemed keen to amplify with the slightest nudge - not sure if that’s still the case now though. 

[Don]

Just now, Day 10 said:

So much doom and gloom in here at present, just flicking through the archives while it's quiet.....

This day in 1990 didn't look too great for snow fans with a raging vortex....

Fast forward to 6 weeks to early Feb 1991....

I would happily pass on January for a spell like this again!

For what it's worth I'm not writing off an entire month or the Winter for that matter, I'm sure Winter will return, maybe sooner rather than later who know's.

 

January 1991 wasn't mild though at 3.2C

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Disappointing ensembles on the Gfs 6z.

Onto next runs…

[blizzard81]

10 minutes ago, Day 10 said:

So much doom and gloom in here at present, just flicking through the archives while it's quiet.....

This day in 1990 didn't look too great for snow fans with a raging vortex....

Fast forward to 6 weeks to early Feb 1991....

I would happily pass on January for a spell like this again!

For what it's worth I'm not writing off an entire month or the Winter for that matter, I'm sure Winter will return, maybe sooner rather than later who know's.

 

I completely understand the recent doom and gloom on here. January's over the last 20 plus years have failed to deliver with a couple of exceptions. That's abysmal for the so called deep mid winter month. We are here yet again at the end of another December with very little sign of anything slightly cold in the offing as we approach January. Therefore absolutely understandable to be downbeat at the moment. 

[Day 10]

3 minutes ago, Don said:

January 1991 wasn't mild though at 3.2C

I said it wasn't great for snow fans, which it wasn't apart from the usually hilly stuff here and there. The pattern was crap.

[Day 10]

2 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

I completely understand the recent doom and gloom on here. January's over the last 20 plus years have failed to deliver with a couple of exceptions. That's abysmal for the so called deep mid winter month. We are here yet again at the end of another December with very little sign of anything slightly cold in the offing as we approach January. Therefore absolutely understandable to be downbeat at the moment. 

Nothing has happened yet, there are 34 days til the end of Jan from tomorrow. Don't tell me you're writing off the entire month too?

[Don]

9 minutes ago, Day 10 said:

I said it wasn't great for snow fans, which it wasn't apart from the usually hilly stuff here and there. The pattern was crap.

I know but it’s surprising how low the CET was, given the pattern?!

[That ECM]

1 hour ago, Lampostwatcher said:

When the 3 main models 

Ecm

Gfs

Ukmo 

All agree at T72 you can virtually say that the weather will be 90% accurate 

So why right off a whole a month 

I could show you a failed easterly when at T72 they all agreed but with the mood in here I won’t. I’m over it nearly.

[Kasim Awan]

12 minutes ago, Day 10 said:

Nothing has happened yet, there are 34 days til the end of Jan from tomorrow. Don't tell me you're writing off the entire month too?

I think any decent cold / snow within Jan is unlikely, not a write off, but unlikely.

1 minute ago, That ECM said:

I could show you a failed easterly when at T72 they all agreed but with the mood in here I won’t. I’m over it nearly.

This occurs because models dont understand the effects of hadley cell changes and therefore underestimate the westerly component!

[Eagle Eye]

The models(just the GFS, not sure about the other ones) have been under progressing and/or amplifying the MJO pattern recently. It is possible that they're doing the same for the future as well. Though its unlikely to move away from the so called COD initially, the latest run suggests we may see a re-amplification of the RMM values over phase 7 by the second week of January and if that becomes a trend then cold for late January into early February may be a fair possibility even without a SSW.

ECM extended less interested and probably more likely but still keeps the 'interest' up before moving on to the generally more nondescript phases 8 and 1.

This slow move towards phases 8/1 is likely to happen which generally doesn't fabour -VE NAO though being quite nondescript in nature, will likely not have too much effect until it enters phases 2/3 in the Indian Ocean which favours a +VE NAO signal and by then we'll be ready for another MJO cycle. I'll talk more about the MJO either later today or later this week though.

Edited December 28, 2022 by Eagle Eye

[Lukesluckybunch]

icon 12z out..looks a bit better heights more evident then the 6z..but still it looks rathers messy!

[Don]

27 minutes ago, Day 10 said:

Nothing has happened yet, there are 34 days til the end of Jan from tomorrow. Don't tell me you're writing off the entire month too?

Shall we start up a 'No hope January' club?!! 

[Kasim Awan]

11 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:

The models(just the GFS, not sure about the other ones) have been under progressing and/or amplifying the MJO pattern recently. It is possible that they're doing the same for the future as well. Though its unlikely to move away from the so called COD initially, the latest run suggests we may see a re-amplification of the RMM values over phase 7 by the second week of January and if that becomes a trend then cold for late January into early February may be a fair possibility even without a SSW.

ECM extended less interested and probably more likely but still keeps the 'interest' up before moving on to the generally more nondescript phases 8 and 1.

 

 

To me neither look interested in amplifying the mjo signal.

[Don]

24 minutes ago, That ECM said:

I could show you a failed easterly when at T72 they all agreed but with the mood in here I won’t. I’m over it nearly.

Not sure it would make much difference to the mood in here.  Once you're on the ground, you cannot fall any further!! 

Edited December 28, 2022 by Don

[Eagle Eye]

4 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

To me neither look interested in amplifying the mjo signal.

Like I said, theyve been under amplifying the MJO for a while (well the GFS has anyway), you're entitled to your opinion but its a step in the right direction to see that loop try and amplify the MJO and a step in the right direction is purely that. Simply put, we're in a bad position but its getting slightly better and that is and always will be better than nothing.

Edited December 28, 2022 by Eagle Eye

[Kasim Awan]

Just now, Eagle Eye said:

Like I said, theyve been under amplifying the MJO for a while (well the GFS has anyone), you're entitled to your opinion but its a step in the right direction to see that loop try and amplify the MJO and a step in the right direction is purely that. Simply put, we're in a bad position but its getting slightly better and that is and always will be better than nothing.

Looks like firm agreement for clustering towards the COD / very weak phase 7/8/1. True strong mjo phasing is unlikely in a strong zonal pattern so I doubt anything to the contrary will happen. COD/ very weak 7/8/1 phasing will not have the required momentum to shift a strong zonal pattern either. For these reasons I think the MJO will be a minimal influencer for the forseeable.

[Don]

Just now, Kasim Awan said:

Looks like firm agreement for clustering towards the COD / very weak phase 7/8/1. True strong mjo phasing is unlikely in a strong zonal pattern so I doubt anything to the contrary will happen. COD/ very weak 7/8/1 phasing will not have the required momentum to shift a strong zonal pattern either. For these reasons I think the MJO will be a minimal influencer for the forseeable.

So what's our next hope then, if there is one?!