Model Output Discussion - Christmas week and beyond

[Kasim Awan]

3 minutes ago, Don said:

So what's our next hope then, if there is one?!

Time will allow a wave break perhaps - need to see a big mountain torque or SSW event to shift the monstrous Iberian heights.

[blizzard81]

42 minutes ago, Day 10 said:

Nothing has happened yet, there are 34 days til the end of Jan from tomorrow. Don't tell me you're writing off the entire month too?

We do what we do. We analyse the models and the tools we have at our disposal. I would be one of the first to shout from the roof tops if the signs were even semi-decent but they just aren't. 'At this moment' No, January isn't looking promising at all. That's where we are right now unfortunately. 

[Don]

1 minute ago, blizzard81 said:

We do what we do. We analyse the models and the tools we have at our disposal. I would be one of the first to shout from the roof tops if the signs were even semi-decent but they just aren't. 'At this moment' No, January isn't looking promising at all. That's where we are right now unfortunately. 

How things have changed during the last two weeks!! 

[blizzard81]

2 minutes ago, Don said:

How things have changed during the last two weeks!! 

At least we had some seasonal weather in December for a change which is all I was expecting and hoping for. The bar has been lowered markedly for me after the last few years. 

[Eagle Eye]

19 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Looks like firm agreement for clustering towards the COD / very weak phase 7/8/1. True strong mjo phasing is unlikely in a strong zonal pattern so I doubt anything to the contrary will happen. COD/ very weak 7/8/1 phasing will not have the required momentum to shift a strong zonal pattern either. For these reasons I think the MJO will be a minimal influencer for the forseeable.

Sort of agree but there are still signs of it re-stengthening in phase 7 like I said and I'd rather that than nothing. It'll still have some backing of an amplified pattern as long as it stays fairly far away from COD anyway as it can still help retract the downstream jet when combined with the East Asian Jet Retraction signal in reply to the -VE EAMT. Of course, the Atlantic zonal pattern still stays fairly strong initially but as the energy starts making its effects downstream it could well weaken the Atlantic zonal pattern assuming it interacts with an in-situ High over either Notth America or somewhere similar. The timing of this is important as to the weakening and chipping away of such an Atlantic zonal pattern but I see no reason as to not keep up hope that we'll get lucky because hope will keep up sane for now. It's not unfounded hope either just relies on a bit of luck to fall our way.

it's not that strong of a zonal pattern beyond mid January anyway. The intiial VI from the development of the polar-night jet should essentially start slowing down soon and the Subtropical Eddy jet upwelling into the Strat could likely pish the polar-night jet abnormally and cause a refracting wave to bend it baroclinically (or however you spell it) and weaken the Strat zonal pattern into the second week of Janaury. Even if this only causes a minor SSW or doesn't cause one whatsoever it doesn't matter much as we could well see that amount of upward Wave flux with an increasing Wave-2 amplification signal to cause the anomalous weak Strat zonal jet to downwell and weaken the Trop to at least fairly average zonal levels.

Plus the GWO may be moving back towards regaining some AAM through a +VE mountain torque event and with this kind of repeating pattern due to the relatively unbalanced balance () over the East Asian mountains and how the pressure evolves, a regain of mountain torque at least once is unlikely. The recent regaining signal was unfortunately overriden by the downwelling of the polar-night jet but if the thermal transfer into the Strat weakens that signal quite quickly then we may be luckier the 2nd time around.

Edited December 28, 2022 by Eagle Eye

[Don]

4 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

At least we had some seasonal weather in December for a change which is all I was expecting and hoping for. The bar has been lowered markedly for me after the last few years. 

True but it's a shame we missed out on any snow.

[Don]

If you're hoping for something more interesting in the Met Office 16-30 day forecast, don't bother looking today as it's got worse!!  It would seem that their ideas are inline with many on here.  Hopes for a decent cold spell in January are rapidly diminishing and that's the way it is sadly!

Edited December 28, 2022 by Don

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, Don said:

If you're hoping for something more interesting in the Met Office 16-30 day forecast, don't bother looking today as it's got worse!!

No suprise if it is influenced by EC46 ..

[Lampostwatcher]

2 minutes ago, Don said:

If you're hoping for something more interesting in the Met Office 16-30 day forecast, don't bother looking today as it's got worse!!

Might wait till Thursday then 

When they mentioned snow again

[Mike Poole]

40 minutes ago, Don said:

Shall we start up a 'No hope January' club?!! 

Anything to get those with that mindset out of here!

[Don]

4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

No suprise if it is influenced by EC46 ..

It is to some extent I think but they didn't downgrade yesterday, after Monday's EC46 update?  I will probably get shot down (and that might be justified) but I really do think the writing is on the wall for winter now but I will always hope!

1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

Anything to get those with that mindset out of here!

As long as they can come back if things look up again?!  

Edited December 28, 2022 by Don

[RhHh]

7 minutes ago, Don said:

If you're hoping for something more interesting in the Met Office 16-30 day forecast, don't bother looking today as it's got worse!!  It would seem that their ideas are inline with many on here.  Hopes for a decent cold spell in January are rapidly diminishing and that's the way it is sadly!

Don't bother reading their updates, they are really not very accurate. They change with the wind!

[Lukesluckybunch]

12z gfs looking similar to 6z..some kind of a southeast flow around the 3rd january

3 minutes ago, RhHh said:

Don't bother reading their updates, they are really not very accurate. They change with the wind!

that true..but they do look a the broader pattern..and the pattern right now is not very good!

[Purga]

[Guest]

GFS 12z not too dissimilar to the 06z output at 150hrs with heights dropping over Iberia and high pressure to our east:

[Don]

Just now, Tidal Wave said:

GFS 12z not too dissimilar to the 06z output at 150hrs with heights dropping over Iberia and high pressure to our east:

ICON not interested though.

[Don]

1 minute ago, Purga said:

Trouble is, Uncle Barty has a bad habit of outstaying his welcome and does not take subtle hints!!

[Guest]

1 minute ago, Don said:

ICON not interested though.

No, and it's likely it comes to nothing, but I'd rather be viewing and commenting on the actual model output than writing off the whole of next month which this thread seems to have descended to.  Anyone with an ounce of sense would realise how the weather can make fools of us.

UKMO 12z shows signs of things settling down a bit towards the southeast next week:

[Rain All Night]

How about we celebrate some nicer weather being modelled, EPS 0z for central England seems to suggest many may see at least a few days of more settled weather next week, won't that be nice?!

[Eagle Eye]

Away from long-term and more short-term, we could see some local date records being broken in Europe with warm air sourced from Africa and just off the coast of Africam its apparent moisture rich look is just because of the time of the year and really its just because theres some moisture adverting from the South West due to the presence of the low and that moisture is slowly transporting across the Atlantic (possible Atmospheric River, the transport looks fairly tight, I mentioned the possibilityof a secondary one a few days ago) so the area its sourcing it's advection from is anomalously moisture rich in the first place.

Edited December 28, 2022 by Eagle Eye

[bluearmy]

Low heights to our ne won’t allow the fledgling ridge to meet with its stronger Arctic buddy. Hence the 06z gfs op solution is as expected …… binned 

Edited December 28, 2022 by bluearmy

[Don]

8 minutes ago, Tidal Wave said:

No, and it's likely it comes to nothing, but I'd rather be viewing and commenting on the actual model output than writing off the whole of next month which this thread seems to have descended to.  Anyone with an ounce of sense would realise how the weather can make fools of us.

UKMO 12z shows signs of things settling down a bit towards the southeast next week:

I've not seen anyone dispute that and of course you are correct!  However, currently things are not looking good for January and that's all we can say for now at least.  I know this is a model discussion forum and not a cold seekers forum but most weather enthusiasts at this time of year are looking for cold and snow, just like they come on here at the end of June searching for heatwaves and/or thunderstorms!  It's the way it is.

Edited December 28, 2022 by Don

[Ali1977]

The Atlantic pattern looks quite complex, but not in an uninteresting way - a few LP at mid latitudes and possible gaps for WAA. Somethings going to change in the next few days , and I’m hoping it’s good for coldies and not the doomsdayers!! 
The jet on the other side of the planet looks crazy - California hopefully filling up those lakes with rain water. 

[That ECM]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Low heights to our ne won’t allow the fledgling ridge to meet with its stronger Arctic buddy. Hence the 06z gfs op solution is as expected …… binned 

Ne or nw?

[Kasim Awan]

Dont let the gfs lead you down the garden path.