January 2023 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[snowray]

Consensus was 5.05c, so a finish very close to this again. 

[Scorcher]

On 29/01/2023 at 22:54, damianslaw said:

Can we nudge into the 4s or hold at 5 degrees, next couple of days looking quite mild, I'd say 50/50 either way. Good to know last time we had a Dec end in the 3s and a Jan in the 4s.. not many a case recently. Indeed good to just see two winter months back to back not produce a silly 6 degree plus figure, lets see if Feb can hold off doing the same.

Very unlikely it will drop below 5C now- should hold steady at the very least today and we don't get the corrections at the end of the month anymore.

At the end of the day it's still a mild month overall- anyone suggesting it's been cold or even average is misleading people IMO. It may even have been in the 'very mild' category before the 1990s.

The mild weather has been far more notable than the cold since mid December- from December 17th to around January 14th it really was an exceptionally mild period- almost unmatched in fact. We had 8 days in double figures here in the first half of January and 6 of those days were above 12C.

The cold spell from mid-month (not that notable however) has disguised what has been a predominantly mild month overall. Even with the cold spell, only 4 days have failed to reach 5C here all month. A few cold nights have brought the average down more than anything.

[snowray]

Very mild today, I noticed temps of 10-12c this afternoon, guess it may still rise by a fraction.

[Relativistic]

3 hours ago, Scorcher said:

Very unlikely it will drop below 5C now- should hold steady at the very least today and we don't get the corrections at the end of the month anymore.

At the end of the day it's still a mild month overall- anyone suggesting it's been cold or even average is misleading people IMO. It may even have been in the 'very mild' category before the 1990s.

The mild weather has been far more notable than the cold since mid December- from December 17th to around January 14th it really was an exceptionally mild period- almost unmatched in fact. We had 8 days in double figures here in the first half of January and 6 of those days were above 12C.

The cold spell from mid-month (not that notable however) has disguised what has been a predominantly mild month overall. Even with the cold spell, only 4 days have failed to reach 5C here all month. A few cold nights have brought the average down more than anything.

What have you been reading? I haven't seen anyone suggest that the month as a whole has been cold.

I think the colder spell was best in the south-east. The CET zone didn't fare too badly either, with four daily means at or below 0°C and three minima below -5°C. It has nothing on last month, but at least we've had some cold to speak of (unlike many winter months of recent years).

Edited January 31, 2023 by Relativistic

[damianslaw]

A finish or either 5, 5.1 or even 5.2 degrees. A mild month, first half was exceptionally mild, a cold middle to latter period between 15th and 25th followed by a near average/mild end. It won't be remembered overall, other than the notable cold in the SE briefly. 

[Roger J Smith]

NYC (Central Park) registered their warmest January, the old record (1869 on) was 1932 (6.2 C) and this month ended up at 6.4 C. It was however tied second for mean maximum (first for mean minimum) and also only the fourth January out of 154 not to record measurable snow.

Toronto (1841 on) settled into seventh place at +0.2 C. 1932 was (and remains) warmest there also . 

Edited February 2, 2023 by Roger J Smith

[Stationary Front]

Looks like 5.2 confirmed 

[Don]

Just 0.1C out, so happy with that!

[Roger J Smith]

Hadley EWP was 95.0 mm to 28th, has not been updated since although maps of daily precip on meteociel give the impression of there being very little to be added, perhaps a few tenths, will say 95.4 mm for now. That leaves the preliminary scoring more or less good to go, but will now just wait for the table value which should appear on 5th. Will update the tracker whenever they show up to make that final. 

When the CET scoring discussion is over (by 3rd or so) I will move the preliminary scoring to end of the thread and adjust it to the latest known value. 

Will check that 5.2 value and if it looks final, will post the order of scoring from the table of entries. 

[Roger J Smith]

Preliminary scoring report for CET and EWP 

The CET scoring will be confirmed or adjusted when J10 posts the final results. These are based on the table of forecasts. The EWP scoring ranks are now confirmed from 97.8 mm. CET ranks as shown here are adjusted by one position per late day, which is roughly what happens inside the CET scoring file. The seven late forecasts are shown in order of errors and this explains why the numbering of ranks jogs by one around their positions in the table. The EWP ranks directly incorporate late penalties. 

Ranks for normals and consensus equal best ranks of forecasters with those values or equal errors (see 1981-2010 average 4.4 which has same rank as earlier entered 6.0), or for EWP, a scaled value, and in any case they do not affect the contest ranks. 

Best combined forecasts are derived from smallest total rank numbers. Top best combined are identified (normals do not qualify).

( ^ symbol = one day late )

 

Rank __ CET _ EWP __ FORECASTER (order of entry) ___ EWP rank ___ Best combined rank (top 20)

_ 01 ___ 5.2 __101.0__ Mapantz ( 10 ) ___________________ 17 ______ 18 _ 3rd best combined 

_ 02 ___ 5.2 __ --- ---__ Summer Sun ( 22 ) _______________

_(03) __ 5.1 __ 99.5 __ consensus _________________________6.5 ______ (9.5 __ 2nd)

_ 03 __ 5.1 __ 80.0 __ Earthshine ( 17 ) ___________________39 ______ 42 _ t12th best combined 

_ 04 __ 5.3 __ --- ---__ Man with Beard ( 37 ) ______________

_ 05 __ 5.1 __ 95.0 __ Norrance ( 41 ) ____________________ 16 ______ 21 _ 5th best combined 

_ 06 __ 5.1 __ 98.0 __ Midlands Ice Age ( 50 ) ____________ 01 ______ 07 _ first best combined 

_ 07 __ 5.3 __121.0__ Don ( 54 ) __________________________46 ______ 53 _ 20th best combined

_ 08 __ 5.3 __110.0__ J10 ( 58 ) ___________________________33 ______ 41 _ 12th best combined 

_ 09 __ 5.0 __ 85.0 __ The PIT ( 31 ) ______________________ 35 ______ 44 _  16th best combined 

_ 10 __ 5.4 __122.0__ davehsug ( 38 ) ____________________47 ______ 57 _  22nd best combined

_ 11 __ 5.0 __ 98.0 __ seaside60 ( 53 ) ____________________ 02 _____ 13 _ 2nd best combined 

_ 12 __ 5.0 __104.0__ noname_weather ( 57 ) ____________22 _____ 34 _ t8th best combined 

_ 13 __ 5.4 __ 96.0 __ February1978 ( 59 ) ________________ 06 _____ 19 __ 4th best combined 

_ 15 __ 5.0 __100.0__ DR(S)NO ( L1-6 ) ___________________ 13 ______ 28 __ 7th best combined 

_ 14 __ 5.5 __ 90.0 __ Leo97t ( 23 ) _______________________ 26 ______ 40 __ 11th best combined 

_ 16 __ 4.9 __100.0 __ cymro ( 27 ) _______________________ 10 ______ 26 __ 6th best combined 

_ 17 __ 5.5 __ --- ---__ damianslaw ( 36 ) __________________

_ 18 __ 4.9 __110.0 __ freeze ( 48 ) _______________________ 32 ______ 50 _ 18th best combined

_ 20 __ 5.5 __ 78.5 __ Thundery Wintry Showers ( L1-5 ) _ 41 ______ 61 _ t25th best combined

_ 19 __ 4.8 __156.0__ Summer Shower ( 03 ) _____________56 

_ 21 __ 5.6 __ 91.7 __ bobd29 ( 07 ) ______________________ 21 ______ 42 __ t13th best combined 

_ 22 __ 5.6 __ --- ---__ Typhoon John ( 12 ) ________________

_ 23 __ 4.8 __120.0__ Summer18 ( 18 ) ___________________43

_ 24 __ 4.8 __120.0__ SteveB ( 21 ) _______________________ 44

_ 25 __ 5.6 __123.0__ Reef ( 35 ) _________________________ 48

_ 26 __ 4.8 __ 68.0 __ stewfox (46) ________________________49

_ 27 __ 4.8 __ 99.9 __ prolongedSnowLover (49) _________ 07 ______ 34 __ t8th best combined 

_ 29 __ 4.8 __ --- --- __Walsall Wood Snow ( L1-2 ) ________

_(28) _ 4.7 __ 94.2 __ 1991-2020 average __________________(17.8) _____45.8 __ (17th)

_(28) _ 4.7 __ 95.4 __ 1993-2022 average ___________________ (15.7) ____ 43.7 __ (16th)

_ 28 __ 5.7 __ 91.0 __ snowray ( 16 ) _____________________ 23 ______ 51 __ 19th best combined

_ 30 __ 5.7 __ 99.0 __ Feb1991Blizzard ( 40 ) ____________ 05 ______ 35 __ 10th best combined 

_ 31 __ 5.7 __105.0__ Mr Maunder ( 51 ) ________________ 25 ______ 56 __ 21st best combined

_ 32 __ 5.7 __ --- --- __ Mark Bayley ( 56 ) ________________

_ 33 __ 5.8 __112.0__ I Remember Atlantic252 ( 02 ) ____ 36

_ 34 __ 4.6 __ 64.0 __ dancerwithwings ( 11 ) ____________52

_ 35 __ 5.8 __100.0__ DiagonalRedLine ( 32 ) ____________ 11 ______ 46 _17th best combined 

_ 37 __ 4.6 __ --- ---__ Rob79812010 ( L1-4 ) ______________

_ 36 __ 5.9 __140.0__ Frigid ( 25 ) _________________________53

_ 38 __ 5.9 __120.0__ Moorlander ( 39 ) __________________45

_ 39 __ 4.5 __109.0__ catbrainz ( 42 ) _____________________31

_ 40 __ 6.0 __ 97.0 __ virtualsphere ( 19 ) _________________03 ______ 43 _ 15th best combined 

_(40) __ 4.4 __ 93.0 __ 1981-2010 average __________________(18.5) __ (58.5) _ (23rd)

_ 41 __ 4.4 __ 79.2 __ Roger J Smith ( 26 ) _________________40

_ 42 __ 6.1 __103.0__ Emmett Garland ( 14 ) ______________19 _____ 61 _ t25th best combined

_ 43 __ 4.3 __ 76.0 __ Wold Topper ( 24 ) __________________41

_ 44 __ 6.1 __131.0__ rwtwm ( 28 ) ________________________50

_ 45 __ 6.1 __ 95.0 __ summer8906 ( 29 ) _________________ 15 ______ 60 _ 24th best combined

_ 46 __ 4.2 __ 92.0 __ Weather Observer ( 52 ) ____________20 ______ 

_ 47 __ 6.3 __ --- ---__ Kasim Awan ( 13 ) ___________________

_ 48 __ 6.3 __ 85.0 __ SLEETY ( 15 ) ________________________34

_ 49 __ 4.1 __ --- --- __ Kentish Man ( 55 ) __________________

_ 50 __ 4.0 __100.0__ Ed Stone ( 05 ) ______________________09 _______ 59 _ 23rd best combined

_ 51 __ 4.0 __100.0__ John88b ( 34 ) _______________________12

_ 52 __ 4.0 __105.0__ Mulzy (47) __________________________ 24

_ 53 __ 6.5 __ 45.0 __ syed2878 ( 06 ) _____________________ 55

_ 54 __ 3.9 __ 55.0 __ Neil N ( 33 ) _________________________ 54

_ 55 __ 3.9 __ 88.0 __ Stationary Front ( 45 ) ______________ 37

_ 57 __ 3.9 __ 90.0 __ daniel* ( L1-1 ) ______________________27

_ 56 __ 3.8 __ 87.5 __ Polar Gael ( 08 ) _____________________30

_ 58 __ 3.8 __ 89.0 __ summer blizzard ( 20 ) ______________28

_ 59 __ 3.7 __100.0__ Jeff C ( 01 ) __________________________ 08

_ 60 __ 6.8 __112.0__ weather 26 ( 30 ) ____________________37

_ 61 __ 3.3__112.0__ Godber1 ( 43 ) _______________________38

_ 63 __ 3.0 __ --- ---__ Quicksilver1989 ( L1-3 ) _____________

_ 62 __ 2.9 __ 64.0 __ chilly milly ( 04 ) _____________________51

_ 64 __ 2.8 __100.0__ Blast From the Past ( L1-7 ) _________ 14

_ 65 __ 2.0 __ 97.0 __ jonboy ( 44 ) _________________________04

_ 66 __10.2 __94.0 __ shillitocettwo (09) ___________________18

 

 

 

Edited March 5, 2023 by Roger J Smith

[damianslaw]

Not far off, indeed an over estimate! Another appreciably above average month, following the trend of the last 12 months with exception of December. 

[Don]

2 hours ago, damianslaw said:

Not far off, indeed an over estimate! Another appreciably above average month, following the trend of the last 12 months with exception of December. 

Yes, 2023 has started warmer than 2022!

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

The damn mild end!

[Roger J Smith]

Update for EWP: No new reports since tracker stopped at 95.0 mm through 28th Jan. In any case EWP contest results are never final until table value posted on 5th (or possibly later). We may just skip the tracker's final report this month. This was the preliminary scoring report based on 95.1 mm. 

Update 18 Feb _ The January final value for EWP has still not been posted. Daily values add up to 97.8 mm. A second scoring table is now shown below the original one, for an outcome around 97.8 mm. Hoping this matter can be resolved soon.

Update 5 Mar -- The January final value for EWP is now confirmed at 97.8 mm. I have removed the "version 1" table and the second version is now confirmed for scoring. 

 

 

(version 2)

EWP CONTEST 2022-23 _ CONFIRMED SCORING based on 97.8 mm

 

Contest _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _____ _ _ _ _ _  (absolute) _ _ _ _ _

 Rank ____ Forecaster (Jan fcst) _____ Dec score _Jan score (rank) __ TOTAL _____ Dec err _Jan err __avg (rank)

__ 01 ____ jonboy (97.0) ________________ 8.04 _____ 9.58 ( 4) ________ 17.62 ______ 22.0 ____ 0.8 ___ 11.40 (11)    

__ 02____ prolongedSnowLover (99.9) _ 8.56 _____ 9.04 ( 7) ________ 17.60 ______ 17.0 ____ 2.1 ____  9.55 ( 5)    

__ 03____ Feb1991Blizzard (99.0) ______ 8.20 _____ 9.36 ( 5) _________17.56 ______ 20.0 ____ 1.2 ____ 10.60 ( 9) 

__ 04 ____ February1978 (96.0) _________8.33 _____ 9.20 ( 6) _________ 17.53 ______18.0 ____ 1.8 ____ 9.90 (T6) 

__ 05 ____ summer8906 (95.0) _________ 9.60 _____ 7. 76 (15) ________ 17.36 _______ 7.0 ____ 2.8 ____ 4.90 ( 3) 

__ 06 ____ Jeff C (100.0) _________________ 8.08 _____ 8.88 ( 8.) ________ 16.96 ______ 22.0 ____ 2.2 ____ 12.10 (T13)

__ 07 ____ Midlands Ice Age (98.0)_ _____ 6.84 _____10.00 ( 1) ________ 16.84 ______ 27.0 ____ 0.2 ____ 13.60 (16)

__ 08 ____ Bobd29 (91.7) _______________ 9.48 _____ 6.77 (21) ________ 16.25 _______ 8.5 ____ 6.1 ____ 7.30 ( 4)       

__ 09 ____ cymro (100.0) ________________7.56 _____ 8.68 (10)  _________16.24 ______ 24.0 ____ 2.2 ____ 13.10 (15) 

__ 10 ____ DR(S)NO (100.0) _____________ 8.00 _____ 8.08 (13^ _________16.08 ______ 22.0 ____ 2.2 ____ 12.10 (T13)

__ 11 ____ virtualsphere (97.0) _________ 5.69 _____ 9.68 ( 3) __________ 15.37 ______ 36.0 ____ 0.8 ____ 18.40 (27)

__ 12 ____ DiagonalRedLine (100.0) _____6.41 _____ 8.58 (11) _________ 14.99 ______ 32.0 ____ 2.2 ____ 17.10 (21) 

__ 13 ____ Mulzy (105.0) ________________ 8.72 _____ 6.20 (24) _________ 14.92 ______ 16.0 ____ 7.2 ____ 11.60 (12) 

__ 14 ____ Leo97t (90.0) ________________ 8.97 _____ 5.75 (26) _________ 14.72 ______ 12.0 ____ 7.8 _____ 9.90 (T6) 

__ 15 ____ EdStone (100.0) ______________5.77 _____ 8.78 ( 9) __________14.55 ______ 36.0 ____ 2.2 ____ 19.10 (28) 

__ 16 ____ Norrance (95.0) ______________6.33 _____ 7.66 (16) _________ 13.99 ______ 32.0 ____ 2.8 ____ 17.40 (22) 

__ 17 ____ Emmett Garland (103.0) _____ 6.54 _____ 7.12 (19) _________ 13.67 ______ 31.0 ____ 5.2 ____ 18.10 (26) 

__ 18 ____ Weather26 (112.0) ___________ 9.74 _____ 3.70 (37) _________13.44 _______ 6.0 ____ 14.2 ____ 10.10 ( 8.) 

__ 19 ____ seaside60 (98.0) _____________ 3.28 ______9.90 ( 2) __________13.18 ______ 51.0 ____ 0.2 ____ 25.60 (34)

__ 20 ____  J 10 (110.0) __________________ 8.59 _____ 4.50 (33) __________13.09 ______ 17.0 ___ 12.2 ____ 14.60 (18)

__ 21 ____ Stationary Front (88.0) ______ 7.69 _____ 5.14 (29) __________ 12.83 ______ 23.0 ____ 9.8 ____ 16.40 (20) 

__ 22 ____ Roger J Smith (79.2) _________ 9.34 ______ 2.94 (40) _________12.28 ______ 10.0 ____18.6 ____ 14.30 (17) 

__ 23 ____ Summer 18 (120.0) __________ 9.36 _____ 2.36 (43) __________11.72 ______ 10.0 ___ 22.2 ____ 16.10 (19) ___ 43

__ 24 ____ Reef (123.0) __________________9.28 _____ 1.45 (48) __________10.73 ______ 10.0 ___ 25.2 ____ 17.60 (T23) 

__ 25 ____ Don (121.0) __________________ 8.89 _____ 1.81 (46) _________ 10.70 ______ 12.0 ___ 23.2 ____ 17.60 (T23)  

__ 26 ____ John88b (100.0) _____________ 3.08 _____ 8.48 (12) __________ 11.56 ______ 52.0 ____ 2.2 ____ 27.10 (38) 

__ 27 ____ noname_weather (104.0) ____3.56 _____ 6.60 (22) ___________10.16 ______ 49.0 ____ 6.2 ____ 27.60 (40) 

__ 28 ____ freeze (110.0) ________________5.53 _____ 4.60 (32) ___________10.13 ______ 36.0 ___ 12.2 ____ 24.10 (33) 

__ 29 ____ DCee ( -- --) __________________10.00 _____ -- -- --- ____________ 10.00 _______ 4.0 ____ -- -- _____ 4.0 (T1)

__ 30 ____ Robbie Garrett ( -- --) ________ 9.92 _____ -- -- ---  ______________9.92________ 4.0 ____ -- -- _____ 4.0 (T1) 

__ 31 ____ I Remember Atlantic (112.0) _ 6.10 _____ 3.80 (36) __________ 9.90 ______ 33.0  ___ 14.2 ____ 23.60 (T29) 

__ 32 ____ BlastFromThePast (100.0)___ 1.90 _____ 7.98 (14^ ___________ 9.88 ______ 57.0 ____ 2.2 ____ 29.60 (45) 

__ 33 ____ Polar Gael (87.5) _____________4.88 _____ 4.94 (30) __________ 9.82 ______ 41.8  ___ 10.3 ____ 26.05 (35) 

__ 34 ____ daniel* (90.0) ________________4.24 _____ 5.35 (27^ __________ 9.59 ______ 46.0 ____ 7.8 ____ 26.90 (36) 

__ 35 ____ Weather Observer (92.0) ____ 2.75 ______6.94 (20) ___________ 9.69 ______ 53.0 ____ 5.8 ____ 29.40 (44) 

__ 36 ____ SteveB (120.0) _______________ 7.18 _____ 2.26 (44)  __________ 9.44 ______ 25.0 ___ 22.2 ____ 23.60 (T29) 

__ 37 ____ Mapantz (101.0) _____________1.60 _____ 7.44 (17) ____________ 9.04 ______ 58.0 ____ 3.2 ____ 30.60 (48) 

__ 38 ____ Summer Blizzard (89.0) ______3.64 _____ 5.34 (28) ___________ 8.98 ______ 49.0 ____ 8.8 ____ 28.90 (43) 

__ 39 ____ snowray (91.0) ______________ 2.57 _____ 6.36 (23) ___________ 8.93 ______ 54.0 ____ 6.8 ____ 30.40 (T46) 

__ 40 ____ SLEETY (85.0) ________________ 4.37 _____ 4.14 (34) ___________ 8.51 ______ 44.0 ___ 12.8 ____ 28.40 (42) 

__ 41 ____ stewfox (68.0) _______________ 7.05 _____ 1.21 (49) ___________ 8.26 ______ 26.0 ___ 29.8 ____ 27.90 (41)

__ 42 ____ Wold Topper (76.0) __________ 5.13 _____ 2.54 (41)** ________ 7.67 ______ 39.0 ___ 21.8 ____ 30.40 (T46) 

__ 43 ____ Mr Maunder (105.0) _________ 1.44 _____ 6.10 (25) ___________7.54 ______ 58.0 ____ 7.2 ____ 32.60 (50) 

__ 44 ____ shillitocettwo (94.0) _________ 0.27 _____ 7.27 (18) ___________ 7.54 ______ 76.0 ____ 3.8 ____ 39.90 (59) 

__ 45 ____ snowboy111 ( --- ) ___________ 7.51 _____ --- --- _______________ 7.51 ______ 24.0 ____ -- -- ____ 24.00 (T31) 

__ 46 ____ Booferking ( --- ) _____________ 7.48 _____ --- --- _______________ 7.48 ______ 24.0 ____ -- -- ____ 24.00 (T31) 

__ 47 ____ Mark Neal ( --- ) ______________ 6.92 _____ --- --- _______________ 6.92 ______ 27.0 ____ -- -- ____ 27.00 (37) 

__ 48 __Thundery Wintry Showers (78.5) _ 4.36 ___ 2.46 (42^ __________ 6.82 ______ 45.7 ____ 19.3 ____ 32.50 (49) 

__ 49 ____ dancerwithwings (64.0) _______6.03 _____ 0.74 (52) __________ 6.77 ______ 34.0 ____ 33.8 ____ 33.90 (51) 

__ 50 ____ Kirkcaldy Weather ( --- ) ______ 6.67 _____ --- --- _______________ 6.67 ______ 27.2 ____ -- -- ____ 27.20 (39) 

__ 51 ____ Tidal Wave ( --- ) _____________ 5.90 _____ --- --- ________________ 5.90 ______ 35.0 ____ -- -- ____ 35.00 (52) 

__ 52 ____ Moorlander (120.0) __________ 3.72 _____ 2.16 (45) ____________5.88 ______ 49.0 ___ 22.2 ____ 35.60 (53) 

__ 53 ____ rwtwm (131.0) ________________4.75 _____ 1.08 (50) ___________ 5.83 ______ 44.0 ___ 33.2 ____ 38.60 (58) 

__ 54 ____ Cumbrian Ice ( --- ) ___________ 5.61 _____ --- --- ________________5.61 ______ 36.0 ____ -- -- ____ 36.00 (54) 

__ 55 ____ Godber1 (112.0) _____________ 1.68 _____ 3.60 (38) ___________ 5.28 ______ 58.0 ____ 14.2 ____ 36.10 (55) 

__ 56 ____ Stargazer ( --- ) ________________5.26 _____ --- --- _______________ 5.26 ______ 38.0 ____ -- -- ____ 38.00 (57) 

__ 57 ____ SouthLondonCold ( --- ) ______ 5.00 _____ --- --- ________________5.00 ______ 41.0 ____ -- -- ____ 41.00 (60) 

__ 58 ____ The PIT (85.0) _________________ 0.92 _____ 4.04 (35) ___________ 4.96 ______ 62.0 ___12.8 ____ 37.40 (56) 

__ 59 ____ catbrainz (109.0) _____________ -- -- ______ 4.80 (31) ___________ 4.80 ______ --- --- ___ 11.2 ____ 11.20 (10)

__ 60 ____ Kentspur ( --- ) _______________ 4.49 _____ --- --- _______________ 4.49  ______ 45.5 ____ -- -- ____ 45.50 (62) 

__ 61 ____ Ross Andrew Hemphill (---) ___ 4.11 _____ --- --- _______________ 4.11 ______ 47.0 ____ -- -- ____ 47.00 (T63) 

__ 62 ____ Andrew Burden ( --- ) _________ 4.03 _____ --- --- _______________ 4.03 ______ 47.0 ____ -- -- ____ 47.00 (T63) 

__ 63 ____ Fozfoster ( --- ) ________________ 3.95 _____ --- --- _______________ 3.95 ______ 47.0 ____ -- -- ____ 47.00 (T63) 

__ 64 ____ S Bragg ( --- ) _________________ 3.36 _____ --- --- _______________ 3.36 ______ 51.0 ____ -- -- _____ 51.00 (67) 

__ 65 ____ Earthshine (80.0) _____________-- -- ______ 3.14 (39) ___________ 3.14 ______ --- --- ____ 17.8 ____ 17.80 (25) 

__ 66 ____ sunny_vale ( --- ) ______________ 3.00 _____ --- --- _______________ 3.00 ______ 52.0 ____ -- -- ____ 52.00 (68) 

__ 67 ____ davehsug (122.0) ____________ 1.36 _____ 1.63 (47)  ___________ 2.99 ______ 58.0 ____ 24.2 ____ 41.10 (61) 

__ 68 ____ icykev ( --- ) __________________ 2.83 _____ --- --- ________________ 2.83 ______ 53.0 ____ -- -- ____ 53.00 (70) 

__ 69 ____ Frigid (140.0) ________________ 2.06 _____ 0.54 (53) ____________ 2.60 ______ 57.0 ____ 42.2 ____ 49.60 (66) 

__ 70 ____ vizzy2004 ( --- ) ______________ 2.49 _____ --- --- ________________ 2.49 ______ 54.0 ____ -- -- ____ 54.00 (T71) 

__ 71 ____ coldest winter ( --- ) _________ 2.41 _____ --- --- ________________ 2.41 _______ 54.0 ____ -- -- ____ 54.00  (T71) 

__ 72 ____ Matt Tarrant ( --- ) __________ 2.19 _____ --- --- _________________ 2.19 _______ 56.0 ____ -- -- ____  56.00 (74) 

__ 73 ____ syed2878 (45.0) _____________ 1.98 _____ 0.12 (55) ____________ 2.10 _______ 57.0 ____ 52.8 ____ 54.90 (73) 

__ 74 ____ pegg24 ( --- ) ________________  1.52 ______ --- --- _______________ 1.52 _______ 58.0 ____ -- -- _____ 58.00 (75) 

__ 75 ____ chilly milly (64.0) _____________0.47 _____ 0.84 (51)  ___________ 1.31 _______ 71.1 ____ 33.8 ____ 52.45 (69) 

__ 76 ____ Let It Snow! ( --- ) ____________ 1.04 ______ --- --- _______________ 1.04 ______ 60.3 ____ -- -- _____ 60.30 (77) 

__ 77 ____ Captain Shortwave ( --- ) ____ 0.79 ______ --- --- _______________ 0.79 ______ 66.0 ____ -- -- _____ 66.00 (79) 

__ 78 ____ Metwatch ( --- ) _____________ 0.66 ______ --- --- ________________ 0.66 ______ 68.0 ____ -- -- _____ 68.00 (80) 

__ 79 ____ Connor Bailey Degnan ( --- ) _0.40 _____ --- --- _________________0.40 ______ 75.0 ____ -- -- _____  75.00 (81) 

__ 80 ____ Neil N (55.0) _________________0.00 _____ 0.36 (54) _____________0.36  ______ 80.0 ____ 42.8 ____ 61.40 (78) 

__ 81 ____ Warwickshire Lad __________ 0.14 _____ -- -- ___________________ 0.14 ______ 78.0 ____ -- -- ____  78.00 (82) 

__ 82 ____ Summer Shower (156.0) _____ --- --- ____ 0.00 (56) ____________ 0.00 ______--- --- _____ 58.2 ____ 58.20 (76) 

_________________________________________

^ late one day, 0.3 penalty

** rank moves up one due to other forecasters' late penalties (but these are scored from a lower scoring level)

NOTE regarding average error ranks. These were awarded to all Dec-Jan entrants, but going forward, 2/3. 2/4, 3/5, 3/6 then three or fewer missed up to 9/12 will be the minimum standard. What that means is that several average error ranks here are currently "dormant" if the forecasters entered only one contest (either DEC or JAN) and have not entered February. If that remains the case, all ranks shown for active forecasters 4th or below will improve by at least 2 as the two tied-2nd ranks only entered DEC (and not FEB). 15th ranked only entered JAN.  Ranks 16th and above improve by three (then by five if 30th or lower). Larger improvements exist beyond that.

Those forecasters could re-activate by entering enough future contests to avoid falling more than three below the eventual pace. 

-------------------------------------------------------------------- // ---------------------------------------------------

RANK __ NORMAL (or Consensus) _________ Dec Pts _ Jan Pts ___ Total _____ Dec err_Jan err __avg err (rank)

_0.8 ___ 1993-2022 average 95.4 mm_______ 9.85 ___ 7.88 ______ 17.73 _____ 3.5 ____ 2.4 ____ 2.95 (rank 0.74)

_5.4 ___ 1991-2020 average 94.2 mm_______10.00 __ 7.32 ______ 17.32 _____ 1.6 ____ 3.6 ____ 2.60 (rank 0.65)

_6.0 ____1981-2010 average 93.0 mm_______ 9.81 ___ 7.16 ______ 16.97 _____ 4.6 ____ 4.8 ____ 4.70 (rank 2.8)

17.4____ consensus 99.5 mm _______________ 5.13 ___ 9.13 ______ 14.26 _____39.0 ____ 1.7____20.35 (rank 28.3)

===================================================

Normals and consensus are assigned ranks with decimal values, which show where they stand in relation to the forecaster ranks. For example, the rank 1.4 for 1981-2010 means that the points (18.87) are between first and second place among forecasters, and somewhat closer to first than second. A rank below 1.0 indicates that a value is better than all forecasters. This is currently the case for average error of the two recent normals and for 1981-2010. 

______________________

 

 

Edited March 5, 2023 by Roger J Smith

[damianslaw]

21 hours ago, Don said:

Yes, 2023 has started warmer than 2022!

Yes and February starting on an equally mild note to Feb 2022, but likelihood of as mild a month perhaps not so high, but strong similiarities to this year and how last year started.

[J10]

Downloads

Jan 23 CET.xlsxJan 2023 Summary.pdf

Jan 2023 Summary Overall.pdf

Monthly

This month was forecast pretty well, with 32 within 0.5c.

2 Players got it spot on. Mapantz and Summer Sun.

Seasonal

Mapantz takes the lead after winning this month.

Man With Beard, seaside 60, Thundery wintry showers and feb1991blizzard complete the Top 5.

Overall

The same top 10 as the Seasonal competition.

 

Edited February 2, 2023 by J10

[Don]

1 hour ago, damianslaw said:

Yes and February starting on an equally mild note to Feb 2022, but likelihood of as mild a month perhaps not so high, but strong similiarities to this year and how last year started.

There is indeed and I feared that at the end of December.  However, although January was milder, it was certainly a more interesting month than 2022!  Lets hope February continues in the same vein!

[Summer8906]

On 31/01/2023 at 19:36, Roger J Smith said:

NYC (Central Park) registered their warmest January, the old record (1869 on) was 1932 (6.2 C) and this month ended up at 6.4 C. It was however tied second for mean maximum (first for mean minimum) and also only the fourth January out of 154 not to record measurable snow.

Toronto (1841 on) settled into seventh place at +0.2 C. 1932 was (and remains) warmest there also . 

So New York was warmer than the UK? Or is the 6.4C a mean max temp for the month?

6.4 overall mean temp for New York in January sounds really, silly mild.

Edited February 10, 2023 by Summer8906

[Roger J Smith]

On 10/02/2023 at 11:56, Summer8906 said:

So New York was warmer than the UK? Or is the 6.4C a mean max temp for the month?

6.4 overall mean temp for New York in January sounds really, silly mild.

6.4 overall mean, from mean max of 9.3 and mean min of 3.5. The latter was also a record, the mean max was tied second. NYC has a mean of 1.0 so this was about as far above normal as Jan 1916 would have been in its era for CET. If there's no snow on the ground, NYC is at a latitude of only 41.4 N and can easily sustain winter daytime temps of 13 to 18 C in milder flows. Also the North Atlantic offshore has been running several degrees above normal.

By the way, general note, EWP has not updated with an official monthly total, although the daily numbers posted now add up to 97.6 mm. I don't know when I will be able to adjust the EWP scoring. 

[Midlands Ice Age]

11 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

 

By the way, general note, EWP has not updated with an official monthly total, although the daily numbers posted now add up to 97.6 mm. I don't know when I will be able to adjust the EWP scoring. 

Wow my 5.1C and 98 mms, looking better by the day! 

[Summer8906]

14 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

6.4 overall mean, from mean max of 9.3 and mean min of 3.5. The latter was also a record, the mean max was tied second. NYC has a mean of 1.0 so this was about as far above normal as Jan 1916 would have been in its era for CET. If there's no snow on the ground, NYC is at a latitude of only 41.4 N and can easily sustain winter daytime temps of 13 to 18 C in milder flows. Also the North Atlantic offshore has been running several degrees above normal.

Thanks, so in absolute terms exactly the same as January 2020 for CET and almost as mild as January 1990.

I can see how the low latitude, and maritime exposure, can potentially lead to occasional very mild days but I guess in this past January blocking patterns just kept pumping in the mild oceanic air.

Certainly from what I understand, the mean max for Jan is a mere 3C (though the mean of 1C would suggest the average night isn't as cold as all that, at -1, perhaps due to the urban heat island effect?)

[Roger J Smith]

The 1991-2020 averages for NYC (Central Park) are max 4.3, min -2.5, mean 0.9 C. These are all up by 0.4 relative to 1981-2010 averages, and the urban heat island is probably a constant since 1980 after growing steadily in previous decades. In fact, 1932 retains first place "adjusted" on an assumption of urban heat island adding 0.6 to its outcome, and adding 1.1 to 2023. The CET is urban heat island adjusted although I think it's fairly small at one location and not a factor at the other two. Therefore I would compare NYC to CET as 5.3 rather than 6.4 vs years at that level, similar to the 2023 CET of 5.2. This doesn't change the fact that the actual environment of millions of people in metro New York City had an average of 6 to 6.5 looking at all the other regional stations.

Jan 2023 was also one of four months of January without measurable snow at the NYC location. 1890, 1933 and 2008 were the others. There was 0.4" on Feb 1st which remains the winter total, the record low for that is 2.8" (1972-73).  

Edited February 12, 2023 by Roger J Smith

[Frigid]

2 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

The 1991-2020 averages for NYC (Central Park) are max 4.3, min -2.5, mean 0.9 C. These are all up by 0.4 relative to 1981-2010 averages, and the urban heat island is probably a constant since 1980 after growing steadily in previous decades. In fact, 1932 retains first place "adjusted" on an assumption of urban heat island adding 0.6 to its outcome, and adding 1.1 to 2023. The CET is urban heat island adjusted although I think it's fairly small at one location and not a factor at the other two. Therefore I would compare NYC to CET as 5.3 rather than 6.4 vs years at that level, similar to the 2023 CET of 5.2. This doesn't change the fact that the actual environment of millions of people in metro New York City had an average of 6 to 6.5 looking at all the other regional stations.

Jan 2023 was also one of four months of January without measurable snow at the NYC location. 1890, 1933 and 2008 were the others. There was 0.4" on Feb 1st which remains the winter total, the record low for that is 2.8" (1972-73).  

Is this on the same level as December 2015. iirc NYC had a very mild month then with a warm Christmas.. Is the anomaly as high as that

[Roger J Smith]

1 minute ago, Frigid said:

Is this on the same level as December 2015. iirc NYC had a very mild month then with a warm Christmas.. Is the anomaly as high as that

That was an even more impressive record-setter, December has seen a larger increase in recent decades than January for whatever reason, and had broken its NYC record from 1891 several times starting with 1982, before 2015 really blew away the previous record. The margin was similar to the CET Dec 2015 annihilation of previous records. 

Just as a general note I have all these record keeping details in a thread in the climate change forum, for both Toronto and New York City. The top 13 Decembers at NYC include eleven that are more recent than 1980, with comparisons to Toronto's mildest (all top eleven are in the list in almost the same order, 12th at Toronto was 1965), these are:

NYC Rank _ Year _ Mean _ Tor rank _ Tor mean

 01 _________ 2015 _10.44 __ 01 _____ 5.2

 02 _________ 2001 __ 6.72 __ 02 _____ 3.2

03t__________1984 __ 6.56 __ 10 _____ 1.7

03t__________ 2021 __ 6.56 __ 04 _____ 2.5

05 __________ 2006 __ 6.44 __ 03 _____ 2.9

06 __________ 2011 __ 6.28 __ 09 _____ 2.0

07 __________ 1998 __ 6.22 __t05_____ 2.3

08 __________ 1982 __ 6.00 __t05_____ 2.3 

09 __________ 1990 __ 5.89 __ 33 _____ 0.7  

10 __________ 1891 __ 5.72 __t27_____ 0.8 

11 __________ 1994 __ 5.67 __ 11 _____ 1.6 

12 __________ 1923 __ 5.56 __ t05_____ 2.3

13 __________ 2012 __ 5.28 __ 08 _____ 2.1

As can be seen above, both locations were well above their previous record (2001) in 2015, and earlier high points in 1891 and 1923 were often bettered in years from 1982 to 2021. (Dec 2022 like CET was a little below the recent normal)