January 2023 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 7.4C +2.7C above normal. Rainfall up to 66.9mm 89.9% of the monthly average.

[Roger J Smith]

7.9 to the 12th is tied fourth warmest (with 1950, 1976) to that point, so here's how the top thirty-one (6.4 or above at this point) fared from 12th to end of January ... I added near miss 1855 which is perhaps second to 1810 in the list to show the lower boundaries of what is possible from a mild start. Also added any other starting 12d for top 20 finishing Januaries (such as 1834 and 1990). That brings in four mild Januaries from before 1772 with no known value for the 1st to 12th CET. Three of those were in the 1730s and the other was 1686.

Ranks for finishing CET are ties in one decimal rather than using the actual ranks shown which separate these by second decimal values. Also these finishing ranks are only displayed down to 50th and ties (1948 5.4). 

 

(all using v2.0 data)

Rank _ YEAR ___ CET 1-12 ___ CET 1-31 (rank)

_01 __ 1916 ____ 8.4 _________ 7.6 (1)

_02 __ 2007 ____ 8.3 _________ 7.0 (5)

_03 __ 1975 ____ 8.1 _________ 6.8 (7)

_t04 __1950 ____ 7.9 _________ 4.2

_t04 __1976 ____ 7.9 _________ 5.9 (t24)

_t04 __2023 ____ 7.9 _________ 6.0 ? 

_t07 __1873 ____ 7.8 _________ 5.2

_t07 __1921 ____ 7.8 _________ 7.3 (t2)

_t07 __1983 ____ 7.8 _________ 6.7 (8)

_10 __ 2012 ____ 7.7 _________ 5.5 (t39)

_11 __ 2005 ____ 7.5 _________ 5.9 (t24)

_12 __ 2020 ____ 7.2 _________ 6.4 (t13)

_13 __ 1902 ____ 7.0 _________ 4.7

_14 __ 1932 ____ 6.9 _________ 6.3 (t17)

_t15__ 1948 ____ 6.8 _________ 5.4 (t50)

_t15__ 1937 ____ 6.8 _________ 5.2

_t15__ 1998 ____ 6.8 _________ 5.1

_t18__ 1853 ____ 6.7 _________ 5.1

_t18__ 1869 ____ 6.7 _________ 5.6 (t34)

_t18__ 1989 ____ 6.7 _________ 6.1 (20)

_t18__ 1992 ____ 6.7 _________ 3.6

_t22__ 1810 ____ 6.6 _________ 2.2

_t22__ 1926 ____ 6.6 _________ 4.6

_t24__ 1851 ____ 6.5 _________ 5.6 (t34)

_t24__ 1882 ____ 6.5 _________ 5.2

_t24__ 1884 ____ 6.5 _________ 6.4 (t13)

_t24__ 1957 ____ 6.5 _________ 5.5 (t39)

_t28__ 1927 ____ 6.4 _________ 4.6

_t28__ 1996 ____ 6.4 _________ 4.3 

_t28__ 2014 ____ 6.4 _________ 5.7 (t31)

_t28__ 2015 ____ 6.4 _________ 4.5

_ xx __ 1834 ____ 6.3 _________ 7.1 (4)

_ xx __ 1855 ____ 6.3 _________ 2.4

_ xx __ 1988 ____ 6.3 _________ 5.3

_ xx __ 1796 ____ 6.1 _________ 7.3 (t2)

_ xx __ 1990 ____ 6.1 _________ 6.5 (t11)

_ xx __ 1875 ____ 5.9 _________ 6.4 (t13)

_ xx __ 1898 ____ 5.8 _________ 6.6 (t9)

_ xx __ 2008 ____ 5.4 _________ 6.6 (t9)

_ xx __ 1846 ____ 3.7 _________ 6.3 (t17)

_ xx __ 1686 ____ unk ________ 6.5 (t11)

_ xx __ 1733 ____ unk ________ 6.9 (6)

_ xx __ 1736 ____ unk ________ 6.4 (t13)

_ xx __ 1737 ____ unk ________ 6.2 (19)

___________________________________________________

The average change of the top 31 (all dropped by some amount) was about 2.0 C. The mildest value 1-12 to increase was 6.3 in 1834 which ended up 7.1. 

[Roger J Smith]

This must have been a shock to the system in 1810 ... and it repeated to some extent in both February and March!

Date ___ Jan ___ Feb ___ Mar

01 __ 8.7 ___ 7.1 ___ 7.9

02 __ 7.2 ___ 6.3 ___ 8.2

03 __ 7.9 ___ 5.3 ___ 7.9

04 __ 7.7 ___ 5.1 ___ 4.7

05 __ 6.7 ___ 3.8 ___ 4.7

06 __ 6.7 ___ 4.6 ___ 1.4

07 __ 5.9 ___ 6.6 ___ 4.2

08 __ 3.9 ___ 6.3 ___11.2  

09 __ 7.4 ___ 5.6 ___ 8.9

10 __ 5.2 ___ 7.6 ___ 9.9

11 __ 6.4 ___ 5.8 ___ 8.9

12 __ 5.9 ___ 3.6 ___ 9.4

13 __ 0.7 ___ 3.8 ___ 3.9

14 __-2.1 ___ 2.1 ___ 3.2

15 __-2.8 ___ 2.3 ___ 1.4

16 __-4.6 ___-0.5 ___ 0.9

17 __-3.8 ___-1.2 ___ 1.9

18 __ 0.2 ___-2.2 ___ 0.9

19 __-2.1 ___-1.0 ___ 0.9

20 __-4.6 ___-2.7 ___ 3.7

21 __-0.1 ___-4.7 ___ 4.2

22 __ 0.2 ___-1.5 ___ 2.4

23 __ 1.9 ___ 2.8 ___ 3.7

24 __ 2.2 ___ 5.8 ___ 2.7

25 __ 0.9 ___ 7.3 ___ 1.9

26 __ 0.9 ___ 4.3 ___ 1.9

27 __-0.1 ___ 8.6 ___ 5.9

28 __-0.8 ___ 7.1 ___ 6.4

29 __ 0.2 ___________6.4 

30 __ 0.2 ___________4.9

31 __ 2.4 ___________6.9

 

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield still on 7.4C +2.7C above average. Rainfall up to 80.7mm 108.5% of the monthly average.

[Summer Sun]

7.9c to the 13th

4.0c above the 61 to 90 average
3.6c above the 81 to 10 average

[damianslaw]

An exceptionally mild first half to January, but we've become used to such anomalies from the mean in recent years. A trend downwards over the next week, could be sitting in or around 6 degrees I would imagine by this time next week, with drops of 0.2-0.3 degrees probable day on day. Thereafter perhaps it will hold for a bit, and could then go up, stay the same or drop down... the latter will happen if we pull in continental air. A finish in the 5s or 6s probably most likely, a very outside chance drop into the 4s, and certainly could still end in the 7s.. all to play for, but an above average month almost a dead cert. Suspect the 18th Dec to 15th Jan CET mean one of the mildest on record and a marked contrast to the very cold 2 weeks preceding it.

Edited January 14, 2023 by damianslaw

[Roger J Smith]

EWP is probably close to 75 mm now but the GFS says rest of the month rather dry, 10-15 mm grid average, so even if 20 mm that reaches about normal despite the wet start. Will update this from tomorrow's tracker which will include the wet 13th. 

CET seems likely to fall to around 6 C then level off but could fall slightly more as the milder spell loses what little strength it has to nearby high pressure suggesting frosty nights could return and daily means lower than the running average by then, would think low 5 area might be good at this point. 

Snowfall potential of 10-15 cm especially on higher ground south of London Sunday night into Monday morning. Probably a rain-snow mix in central London and sleety mixtures near sea level around the southeast coast. This will all largely miss most other parts of England on the track it's taking. It won't have a big impact therefore on the EWP nor will it leave snow cover for lower overnight readings in the CET zone in the cold spell. 

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield still at 7.4C +2.7C above normal. Rainfall 82.5mm 110.9% of the monthly average.

[Summer Sun]

7.9c to the 14th

4.1c above the 61 to 90 average
3.5c above the 81 to 10 average

[Roger J Smith]

EWP update: 77.6 mm to 13th, looks like about 3-5 mm on 14th, but we go into a drier regime now with only 20 mm more indicated on GFS by end of month (some central locations as low as 10-15 mm), estimate is therefore 100-105 mm which is slightly above normal and very close to our consensus (99.5 mm). In terms of precip, almost the opposite trend of the previous month with a similar outcome, perhaps.

CET same indications as yesterday, falling to around 6 C in coming days and then fairly steady after that, not a very mild flow with some anticyclonic influence, but should average around 6 C after the cold spell ends. Faint signs of another cold spell developing towards end of month. 

[Summer Sun]

7.7c to the 15th

3.9c above the 61 to 90 average
3.3c above the 81 to 10 average

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 6.8C +2.1C above average, Rainfall up to 84mm 112.9% of the monthly average.

[Relativistic]

Possibly a subzero mean today.

[Frigid]

8 minutes ago, Relativistic said:

Possibly a subzero mean today.

From the 17th Dec to today we've had no average CET means, gone from very cold to very mild to again very cold..

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Could we get below 5c this month ?

[Summer Sun]

7.4c to the 16th

3.6c above the 61 to 90 average
3.0c above the 81 to 10 average

[summer blizzard]

CET should fall a fair way if my location is representative. GFS6z had an average of about 0.7C between the 17th-23rd.

[LetItSnow!]

I've got a feeling we've got a reverse December 2022 type pattern coming up, very mild first-half and colder second half. Some output is showing this today. Would not be surprised if we could take this down into the 4s. High pressure building around the 20th should occur after a cold period with not much movement under the high which in midwinter will be quite cold. Would not be surprised to see some unexpectedly cold nights here and there. Won't get too far ahead of myself but I hope we can take this as low as we possibly can. 

[Don]

3 hours ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

Could we get below 5c this month ?

I'm sure we can if the weather plays ball!

[Man With Beard]

6 hours ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

Could we get below 5c this month ?

Would need to average below 2C for the rest of the month. Not impossible.

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

1 minute ago, Man With Beard said:

Would need to average below 2C for the rest of the month. Not impossible.

Sub-zero days like today will definitely help bring the average down and gives a bit of leeway to other days.

Edited January 17, 2023 by prolongedSnowLover

[Roger J Smith]

A lower CET looks more likely on each run with the milder air mass being held off through most of the interval following the deeper cold this week, eventually reaching Ireland but not most of Britain. It now looks as though a modified cold will stick around and sometimes get reinforced from the east, also it's a very dry pattern so the current EWP is unlikely to go much higher (if these runs generally speaking verify). The CET could therefore finish as low as mid-4 range and the EWP at present time is about 90 mm and GFS shows 10 mm more to end of month for 100 mm. 

[Don]

29 minutes ago, Roger J Smith said:

A lower CET looks more likely on each run with the milder air mass being held off through most of the interval following the deeper cold this week, eventually reaching Ireland but not most of Britain. It now looks as though a modified cold will stick around and sometimes get reinforced from the east, also it's a very dry pattern so the current EWP is unlikely to go much higher (if these runs generally speaking verify). The CET could therefore finish as low as mid-4 range and the EWP at present time is about 90 mm and GFS shows 10 mm more to end of month for 100 mm. 

You could be pretty close with your CET prediction then!  Little sign of any significant snow fall in the extended, though?

[damianslaw]

1 hour ago, Roger J Smith said:

A lower CET looks more likely on each run with the milder air mass being held off through most of the interval following the deeper cold this week, eventually reaching Ireland but not most of Britain. It now looks as though a modified cold will stick around and sometimes get reinforced from the east, also it's a very dry pattern so the current EWP is unlikely to go much higher (if these runs generally speaking verify). The CET could therefore finish as low as mid-4 range and the EWP at present time is about 90 mm and GFS shows 10 mm more to end of month for 100 mm. 

Is this going to be one of those episodic winters when we have cold dry periods and mild wet periods? Winters 08-09 and 12-13 fitted the mould, especially 08-09. Winter 17-18 and 20-21 also to an extent.

Turning into quite an interesting winter - sudden abrupt changes, the switch from very cold and dry to very mild and wet around the 18th Dec was notable, the recent switch to cold and dry not on the same scale, but interesting to see a projected lengthy dry period on the cards albeit not especially cold, but cold all the same. Its been a theme of the last 2 years, very dry periods interspersed by wet spells, the recent 4 week one being quite a long one, just as happened last Jan-Feb, 3 week very dry, 4 week very wet.. the dry periods have either been cold or very mild, the wet periods just mild or very mild!

Edited January 17, 2023 by damianslaw

[Relativistic]

-1.5°C mean yesterday.

Min was a chilly -5.9°C.

Edited January 18, 2023 by Relativistic