Model Output Discussion - New Year and Beyond

[minus10]

Westerly it is and westerly it will stay by the looks of it..

...trying to look for some interest...the mean in the second half of the 12z run mostly at or below the 81-2010 average ...suggests at least some pm activity between the mild bits perhaps?

[Don]

4 minutes ago, minus10 said:

Westerly it is and westerly it will stay by the looks of it..

...trying to look for some interest...the mean in the second half of the 12z run mostly at or below the 81-2010 average ...suggests at least some pm activity between the mild bits perhaps?

Would mean nowt for the south!

Edited January 4, 2023 by Don

[RhHh]

15 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

Well if we can't get any cold at least we can get some stormy weather at least!

Wouldn't bet on it. Probably just cloudy and breezy. Any precipitation for Scotland as per usual. 

[jellybaby1969]

10 hours ago, bluearmy said:

That was a story for a very short period of time (enough to put paid to any possible Atlantic amplification though) 

the states are currently cool on the west coast and warm elsewhere. Soon they will be warm almost everywhere. The pacific jet has been v strong, driving what they call the ‘pineapple express’ into California with massive rainfall totals and snowfall across the mountains.  The big freeze was indeed a generational event over there but very much a snap. of course the narrative over here is that the states are freezing cold because the media will only report what’s interesting. 

Think you still find v warm conditions pushing up from the gulf of Mexico is interacting with the cold pushing down from the artic / Pacific north west..it's adding fuel to the jet.

[Rain All Night]

@Mike Poole To save you the trouble, here's tonight's straw 

[cheshire snow]

16 minutes ago, RhHh said:

Wouldn't bet on it. Probably just cloudy and breezy. Any precipitation for Scotland as per usual. 

Eh?

[bluearmy]

13 minutes ago, RainAllNight said:

@Mike Poole To save you the trouble, here's tonight's straw 

That’s not even a straw for Mike - particularly poor set of 12z suites for anyone searching for cold in the next three weeks 

Edited January 4, 2023 by bluearmy

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

That’s not even a straw for Mike - particularly poor set of 12z suites for anyone searching for cold in the next three weeks 

It's just horrific if you want cold.

[Rain All Night]

3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

That’s not even a straw for Mike - particularly poor set of 12z suites for anyone searching for cold in the next three weeks 

What if you're searching for settled mild?

[Catacol]

2 hours ago, Frostbite1980 said:

First signs, moving into Feb.........2018 anyone?

I’m not surprised to see this - and would expect to see a few more SSW type runs appearing in the ensembles. As KyleHenry has posted tonight already we have a solid Aleutian Low signal soon to be reinforced by some degree of pressure rise acting over the Urals. But for now it is a watch and wait scenario. We need to see if wave 1 does significant damage, whether wave 2 then actually develops and this is dependant on NWP forecasts coming good with regards to the Aleutian/Ural combo. MJO lag impacts to phase 7 peak on days 10-20 following the phase and this takes us to mid month and after also. MJO forcing is quite robust (got to disagree with Met4cast here) and it is working against the Nina ENSO signal and opening the door to future amplification opportunities. AAM has held up better than expected and we are not yet seeing the slide into flat second half of winter territory. Long may that continue.

Just need to ride out the next week. As we get to the end of the first third of January and move towards mid month I think NWP output will begin to improve for those looking for colder options. SSW looking possible too. Given we entered winter with a moderate Nina signal and a wQBO we really could be in a much worse position and we have already had a week of genuine cold. I don’t think this very interesting winter season is done with us yet. Let’s not forget the recent European warmth that has broken records is also an extreme on top of the US very cold snap. Not a lot of “average” going on! This winter is not done with us yet…

[bluearmy]

1 minute ago, RainAllNight said:

What if you're searching for settled mild?

Not really 

[Rain All Night]

2 minutes ago, Catacol said:

I’m not surprised to see this - and would expect to see a few more SSW type runs appearing in the ensembles. As KyleHenry has posted tonight already we have a solid Aleutian Low signal soon to be reinforced by some degree of pressure rise acting over the Urals. But for now it is a watch and wait scenario. We need to see if wave 1 does significant damage, whether wave 2 then actually develops and this is dependant on NWP forecasts coming good with regards to the Aleutian/Ural combo. MJO lag impacts to phase 7 peak on days 10-20 following the phase and this takes us to mid month and after also. MJO forcing is quite robust (got to disagree with Met4cast here) and it is working against the Nina ENSO signal and opening the door to future amplification opportunities. AAM has held up better than expected and we are not yet seeing the slide into flat second half of winter territory. Long may that continue.

Just need to ride out the next week. As we get to the end of the first third of January and move towards mid month I think NWP output will begin to improve for those looking for colder options. SSW looking possible too. Given we entered winter with a moderate Nina signal and a wQBO we really could be in a much worse position and we have already had a week of genuine cold. I don’t think this very interesting winter season is done with us yet. Let’s not forget the recent European warmth that has broken records is also an extreme on top of the US very cold snap. Not a lot of “average” going on! This winter is not done with us yet…

It's nice to see you spirited again 

[damianslaw]

Models continue to show a dominant atlantic for the foreseeable, perhaps though a slightly more amplified state so not quite the same degree of sustained warmth and tropical maritime airflow as we are enduring now. Any ridge development will be fleeting. If you like rain, mild temps, little sunshine, you will like the outlook, if you like dry, cold, snowy weather, its very poor indeed.

Longer term still some suggestions may see higher pressure build in and settle things down, more likely from the south, no swift change to anything particularly cold, but frost and more average temps most likely - similiar perhaps to last January which interestingly came on the back of exceptional warmth at the turn of the year, this year its been Europe's time to experience it, quite remarkable we've had 2 new year periods on the trot with record warmth in Europe.

I sense the frustration of many who want snow and cold, we have a lot of winter and time left for that.... 

 

[Eagle Eye]

17 minutes ago, Catacol said:

 

Yes, been saying it with caution for a while and will continue to exercise caution here as its still fairly unlikely but not impossible. Essentially, as long as we can keep the Wave-1 displacement up then a Sudden increase in Wave-2 would be enough. Its possible given the background signals but we'll just have to wait and see. Also about MJO forcing, phase 8 has often tried to move closer to COD (from memory anyway this, this is stronger than the phase 8 that produced a robust signal in late Nocember before the phase 6/7 December signal) yet there still remains a signal from it, so it being relatively far away from COD on the forecasts combined with any AAM forcing and you've got yourself some decent Tropical forcing for WAA. We're not in the best position but neither are we in the worst. Just my personal opinion here. Of course I've got a bit of bias here with MJO + AAM (if it helps us out) = blocking and realistically it won't every time but at least there's a chance. Where there's a will there's a way.

[Summer8906]

1 hour ago, mountain shadow said:

Would be a huge +NAO if that chart is anywhere close to being accurate. 

We would be weeks away from a cold spell.

Is that the case? What if the winds veered NW-ly and then N-ly a few days after that?

There are certainly a number of historical examples where raging zonality has come to an end. And this raging zonality has to end at some point.

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

3 minutes ago, Summer8906 said:

Is that the case? What if the winds veered NW-ly and then N-ly a few days after that?

There are certainly a number of historical examples where raging zonality has come to an end. And this raging zonality has to end at some point.

Yeah in late Spring when it gets hot again.

[Summer8906]

3 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

Yeah in late Spring when it gets hot again.

I think even in the worst case it'll be before late Spring. Can't think of many raging zonal Aprils!

[Rain All Night]

Just for fun, I was wondering how long it had been since an appreciable chunk of the UK was covered by a high pressure area. It felt like it had been a while.

The very last times were at the beginning of our cold spell, around a month ago.

An honourable mention to our slack low pressure during the cold spell.

Before that, we had only brief visits from high pressure through the Autumn. Only once in November, though it brought us notable warmth for the time of year...

...and quite a few times between mid-September and mid-October.

But, you have to go back to August to find our last two significant periods spent underneath high pressure.

Last year, we had prolonged spells in both November and January, which I miss dearly!

Edited January 4, 2023 by RainAllNight

[swfc]

1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

It's just horrific if you want cold.

I'd agree mate. Been on here 20 years plus and go threw same thing every winter. Barring the obvious good winters it seems like your always chasing fi charts and mjo, background signals etc etc. Obviously our new insipid euro slug is here to stay so I guess it's taking anything remotely cool. I'm sick of this rain and looking forward to some dry bright weather

[Met4Cast]

5 hours ago, minus10 said:

Sorry but bit confused looking at this chart. Does the orange areas refer to increased AAM?..if so i thought that increased AAM was conducive to increased blocking and potential cold, however your stating it represents increased westerly momentum?.Also the graph going into negative territory coincides with the December cold we had...negative AAM?.....apologies but AAM is one of those areas i struggle with...thanks.

The top part of the graph shows U-Wind anomalies, i.e zonal. Red represents westerlies, blue represents easterlies (broadly). The numbers on the left denoting the latitude. 

The bottom half of the graph is showing the AAM. 

[Rain All Night]

Goodnight, sweet dreams...

[RhHh]

2 hours ago, cheshire snow said:

Eh?

That's the exception. Brief spell of rain then just cloudy. Most precipitation will be up north. 

[bluearmy]

18 minutes ago, RainAllNight said:

Goodnight, sweet dreams...

Are we at the bottom yet ?  I mean only one ens member worth posting surely means we can’t be far away ! 

[Tim Bland]

I’m nearing the point that I’m thinking I’m more likely to see daffodils than snow this month. You can almost see the smugness on Darren Betts face as he forecasts the mild. On the plus side if this happens I’ll be dusting off the golf clubs and paying for the rounds using the savings on my heating bill ! 

[georgiedre]

You know that will happen .. the worst possible chart and will have 95% backing lol

6 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

I’m nearing the point that I’m thinking I’m more likely to see daffodils than snow this month. You can almost see the smugness on Darren Betts face as he forecasts the mild. On the plus side if this happens I’ll be dusting off the golf clubs and paying for the rounds using the savings on my heating bill !