Model Output Discussion - New Year and Beyond

[Don]

17 minutes ago, RainAllNight said:

It looks as though we might have to wait a little longer than mid-month to get a ridge near or over us, more like the last week of Jan according to these (except the JMA which doesn't show a ridge at all, although last week it did show a mid-Atlantic ridge for what are now weeks 2 and 3).

Pattern changes being pushed back, sound familiar?! 

[bluearmy]

The latter stages of gfs strat output are becoming very volatile ref continuity. I can only assume that whatever is happening up there is very dependant on what happens in the trop earlier in the run. The lack of consistency in the trop output likely responsible. 

[Battleground Snow]

It might be a coincidence, but when Amy tweets there is usually something of interest happening in the stratosphere.

Notable other years with a west based Qbo and la Nina when SSW's have occurred 

Edit: the GFS will start to approach the week of interest in the ecm 46 within the next few days

 

Edited January 5, 2023 by Battleground Snow

[lorenzo]

Really some awful modelling to endure post start Dec and then the New Year provides peak vortex action driving stuff until mid - month.

For folks of a cold persuasion - the worst modelling going, on the other side...

This winter was so damn close.. and it's a learning winter the Nov /Dec patterns are exceptional, again, this revisit to early 80s NWs CWs is in a cycle  - each cycle disrupting the classic VI period.

But critical this year is the initiation wave guide - without chapter and verse and charts - the Pacific has not behaved.

Beyond not behaved which is light, the pattern of normal 'modelling' which then affects us has moved erratically.

A great case of upstream impacts. But not the usual ones and not the ones you see on RMM plots.

Simply put - MJO RMMs are wrong, the composites are wrong, the regimes predicted by them are not wrong, their are canonical works creating reference, the framework and baseline needs adapting to shorter analog windows.

[lorenzo]

Above anyone else Dr Butler is who to read, trust it.

[Kasim Awan]

Seemed yesterday that some more notable northwesterly incursions were possible towards mid month - this has now been cancelled out on 00Z output thus far which makes more of the Azores high and thereby reducing any influence from the north west.

[tight isobar]

13 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Seemed yesterday that some more notable northwesterly incursions were possible towards mid month - this has now been cancelled out on 00Z output thus far which makes more of the Azores high and thereby reducing any influence from the north west.

Indeed txt book mobility via the 00z @ the Azores high keeping the uk slap bang in no mans land/ non mentioning conditions again!! You’ve just got to  even some more interesting polar maritime shots seem a mathematical improbable sync these days!!

Edited January 6, 2023 by tight isobar

[Kasim Awan]

1 minute ago, tight isobar said:

Indeed txt book mobility via the 00z @ the Azores high keeping the uk slap bang in no mans land/ non mentioning conditions again!! You’ve just got to

Not even stormy because the Azores high is so far north that pressure remains relatively high which prevents deepening.

[tight isobar]

1 minute ago, Kasim Awan said:

Not even stormy because the Azores high is so far north that pressure remains relatively high which prevents deepening.

Exactly @ non mentionable!!

[Kasim Awan]

1 minute ago, tight isobar said:

Exactly @ non mentionable!!

Just a load of c**p

[Cheshire Freeze]

47 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Seemed yesterday that some more notable northwesterly incursions were possible towards mid month - this has now been cancelled out on 00Z output thus far which makes more of the Azores high and thereby reducing any influence from the north west.

Dire outpout continues...and this wasn't unexpected.

I've been light on posting recently but that's purely because I knew what was coming our way and it just doesn't interest me...not in a month that should be core winter.

If we're to see a SSW then none of the extended (seasonal) modelling is interested in any noteworthy response (although that could be purely due to a short tropospheric response wedged between dross).

Going into February I think that the jet stream could be pushed slightly further S, which may allow for a few more polar maritime incursions, but I think we're clutching if expecting anything more than that at this stage.

I will be keeping an eye on the strat though...it's our only hope IMO.

[KTtom]

The pattern is just relentless, picking a chart from 300 hours away and we see the same synoptics, rock solid euro high and persistant deep trough resident to our north west...at least we won't have our noses rubbed in with pictures of Greek snow whilst this pattern exists!

 

Edited January 6, 2023 by KTtom

[Cheshire Freeze]

4 hours ago, lorenzo said:

Really some awful modelling to endure post start Dec and then the New Year provides peak vortex action driving stuff until mid - month.

For folks of a cold persuasion - the worst modelling going, on the other side...

This winter was so damn close.. and it's a learning winter the Nov /Dec patterns are exceptional, again, this revisit to early 80s NWs CWs is in a cycle  - each cycle disrupting the classic VI period.

But critical this year is the initiation wave guide - without chapter and verse and charts - the Pacific has not behaved.

Beyond not behaved which is light, the pattern of normal 'modelling' which then affects us has moved erratically.

A great case of upstream impacts. But not the usual ones and not the ones you see on RMM plots.

Simply put - MJO RMMs are wrong, the composites are wrong, the regimes predicted by them are not wrong, their are canonical works creating reference, the framework and baseline needs adapting to shorter analog windows.

Completely agree, I don't think people grasp just how close we were to cold being locked in throughout January. We just needed to maintain the amplification for another week or two and the strat wouldn't even have been a consideration now, it'd have been out of the game.

I urged so so much caution over people putting eggs in the Greenland HP basket, repeatedly banged on about the importance of keeping Russian HP. It looked at one point that we'd nabbed it....and I became very bullish about cold Christmas-New Year week and beyond. However it soon dawned on me it was going wrong and that's why I quickly changed tack. It became very clear to me very quickly that we'd end up here rather than the nirvana we were so close to.

[Ali1977]

A stretch followed by another warning of the strat, keep it coming  

[tight isobar]

1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

A stretch followed by another warning of the strat, keep it coming  

We need a botany split once any downwell gets into the layers.. as displacement just wont cut it I’m afraid!! Obviously needs a close eye going forward.

[tight isobar]

The Arctic high will be instrumental in aid of breaking/ split- this would be a decent play out for possible cross polar division!.. give or take an- ssw.. which will aid a fare bit down the line... all’s certainly not lost for latter January.. as per tho, we really need every exaction on our side!!! Things are definitely a little brighter of late... although not blindingly so..@ far from it !

Edited January 6, 2023 by tight isobar

[Daniel*]

Good bit of ural blocking developing here on ECM 00z, no doubt many SSW runs must have been showing a similar development on EC46. Try not to be so disheartened there is plenty of winter left. 

[nick sussex]

A pretty desperate set of outputs if you like cold with the ECM least worst .

The GFS is a horror show with the angriest looking PV . The ECM keeps the PV more elongated with a better chance of some cooler blips amidst the dross .

In this fast upstream flow you’ll often find disagreements in the detail and how shortwaves interact with the blob of doom to the north .

If you’re off skiing to the Alps or Pyrenees at last some better news there especially from the ECM .

Ironically some new snow arrives just as the holidays finish ! 

We’ve been here before many times in January which is struggling in recent years to look like a winter month .

[JoeShmoe]

I see we are back to hanging the hat on a possible SSW in 3 weeks time that may or may not actually down well any decent Synoptics that may or may not create those Synoptics in favourable locationx

wake me up when it’s spring !

[Eagle Eye]

7 minutes ago, JoeShmoe said:

I see we are back to hanging the hat on a possible SSW in 3 weeks time that may or may not actually down well any decent Synoptics that may or may not create those Synoptics in favourable locationx

wake me up when it’s spring !

Nice to see the positivity in here remains. There's some actual evidence that one may happen but I'll still remain cautious. At this range, theres no point looking at the Trop response because its not the most likely solution yet anyway.

[alexisj9]

Of note neither the control or the mean agree with the main run, later on.

[bluearmy]

At the moment, looking for any ssw activity on gfs runs ref the ec46 output  is futile.   Ec46 showed ssw events beginning at the back end of January - that’s almost three weeks away. in the meantime, we should expect further warmings to be surfing the Asian side of the vortex and displacing the spv  towards svaalbard ish. If Mondays ec46 remains bullish then end gfs runs could begin to show up.  In the meantime, we need to see the Aleutian low/ural block continuity in trop output across the ens. Otherwise it’s very unlikely  we’ll see anything v notable high up occurring.  

[Nick2373]

Nice to see the SSW as been wheeled out of the winter only cupboard again, lets look at this without rose tinted glasses there are no tentative signs of any SSW Event currently and if this is a if

it could be weeks before the UK see's any effect if any. So back to reality looking at the 00z today its business as usual and the same old same old. 

   

[Eagle Eye]

 

James Peacock's is cautiously interested, a bit like me. Moving in the right direction at the moment but not really that near, yet.

[Kentspur]

Cold March anyone? Latest CFS zonal winds forecast