Model Output Discussion - New Year and Beyond

[Ali1977]

Just now, minus10 said:

Used to seeing the high black hole but the low??

 

Maybe this is what we need, sliding under a Scandy HP 

[Bricriu]

16 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

How’s this for a vortex of doom, T306?  Looks like a constipated cat!

Hopefully it's akin to a baloon ready to pop. I was pessimistic somewhat about it all, but if a senior UKMO employee is hinting at something about a SSW,maybe he has seen something on the Glosea model to arouse his interest.

[alexisj9]

16 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

How’s this for a vortex of doom, T306?  Looks like a constipated cat!

Luckily it's at plus 300, in a model that's been over doing lows , so I'm not paying attention, yet, gets to day seven looking like that, I'll pay some notice but expect it to weaken ABIT till day three. Incidentally that's why it changes just before day three, and up to it, all the time, as lows, even weak ones weaken, so highs do something else.

[Ali1977]

5 minutes ago, Bricriu said:

Hopefully it's akin to a baloon ready to pop. I was pessimistic somewhat about it all, but if a senior UKMO employee is hinting at something about a SSW,maybe he has seen something on the Glosea model to arouse his interest.

He’s saying there’s a possibility, probably in an attempt to stop people think it’s guaranteed and we are in fir a BFTE. Wouldn’t read too much into him mentioning it, but it’s good to see there’s a chance!! 

[alexisj9]

10 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Maybe this is what we need, sliding under a Scandy HP 

I'm not been funny but that could be very very cold. It is however also very far out.

Edited January 21, 2023 by alexisj9

[MJB]

Control looking ok

[andymusic]

2 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

I'm not been funny but that could be very very cold. It is however also very far out.

in the land of make believe gfs lol

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

On 19/01/2023 at 15:23, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

SSW seems inevitable at this conjuncture.  When? Lag?  And There’s GFS playing with the idea of another ridiculously cold plunge into the US, could spell trouble for us.  

 

BFTP

Re the US cold plunge, tonights GFS shows that and shows the potential issue.  That is an extreme plunge of cold.

 

 

 

 

BFTP

 

Edited January 21, 2023 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[MJB]

WAA heading up into Greenland - better from GFS Control

 

[John88B]

5 minutes ago, andymusic said:

in the land of make believe gfs lol

The gfs has been on the bucks fizz again then

[January Snowstorm]

7 minutes ago, MJB said:

WAA heading up into Greenland - better from GFS Control

 

Indeed and one wonders since the gfs upgrade is the control more representative of what the old gfs would have delivered! Bias of course but it does look great and not in deep FI either

[northwestsnow]

UKMO 168

the chart has things going for it...

[Allseasons-Si]

The gfs is a MASSIVE outlier,...relax

the control has been consistant,...so lets see what happens when we count this down.

 

 

 

Edited January 21, 2023 by Allseasons-si
typo

[minus10]

Although i am far from knowledgable on strat matters could the far reaches of gfs12z fi be showing the result of a 'wave 2' attack displacing the vortex over to the nw...?....jff

...or am i talking nonsense..(probably..)

[winterof79]

27 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Maybe this is what we need, sliding under a Scandy HP 

That's one mahooosive slider and is the usual shannon it dishes out when dealing with major change up above

[alexisj9]

4 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

The gfs is a MASSIVE outlier,...relax

the control has been consistant,...so lets see what happens when we count this down.

 

 

 

Thought it might be, not the first time recently, it was so far out a couple of times yesterday, meteociel didn't put it on the sets.

[Snowman.]

17 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

UKMO 168

the chart has things going for it...

Low over Italy is a big positive. You’re only one decent bit of amplification away from a cold snap. 

[Don]

3 minutes ago, Snowman. said:

Low over Italy is a big positive. You’re only one decent bit of amplification away from a cold snap. 

Yes, most important to keep the pressure low over Europe.

Edited January 21, 2023 by Don

[kold weather]

What seems to be getting better agreement is a strong cold plunge into N.America, which probably will refire the jet as we saw back in the 2nd half of December and force a more westerly pattern to resume, though in what way yet remains to be resolved. With that being said the GFS is probably swinging too far into the LP direction, by creating a 912mb low (which would be the strongest ever recorded).

 

[alexisj9]

1 minute ago, kold weather said:

What seems to be getting better agreement is a strong cold plunge into N.America, which probably will refire the jet as we saw back in the 2nd half of December and force a more westerly pattern to resume, though in what way yet remains to be resolved. With that being said the GFS is probably swinging too far into the LP direction, by creating a 912mb low (which would be the strongest ever recorded).

 

What time frame is the low in America?

[goosey007]

 

subtle improvements on the ecm up to 168…..

[January Snowstorm]

Very good ecm compared to last night!! Deep cold all around us, looking East, North and West. If we could only get height rises to our North Winter proper would explode

[Mike Poole]

Would take this for now from ECM T240:

Jet clearly tracking NW=>SE, and no blowing up the vortex to the NW.  

[nick sussex]

Interesting output but so far we don’t see enough upstream amplitude so the deepest cold continues to head south to the east of the UK .

There is plenty of cold air though to the north and east so any increase in amplitude could bring some wintry weather .

With the fall in zonal winds expected and the continued strat warming there’s quite a lot going on .

 

[northwestsnow]

9 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Interesting output but so far we don’t see enough upstream amplitude so the deepest cold continues to head south to the east of the UK .

There is plenty of cold air though to the north and east so any increase in amplitude could bring some wintry weather .

With the fall in zonal winds expected and the continued strat warming there’s quite a lot going on .

 

All eyes on the Atlantic sector, we can see the clock is ticking on EC det for some kind of Atlantic  retrogression and  the window will remain open for a limited timeframe.

Day 1 

day 7

day 10

I dont think there is going to be much help from the mjo so one would assume the only hope is the strat.

It's going to be very difficult to get cold into the UK if we see Euro heights return as we enter Feb,especially with a +AO in place.