Model Output Discussion - New Year and Beyond

[Eagle Eye]

27 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Morning. Looks like the probability of a major SSW has decreased this morning looking at GEFS/GFS, on GFS op the strat PV looks to bounce back after a minor warming, as Chionomaniac / Ed mentioned on twitter recently "displacement events as a bit like pushing a finger on a balloon. Unless you can pop the balloon, when you take your finger away the balloon quickly recovers to its natural state.The upcoming displacement is a lot like this".

Yes that's the trouble when you've got a very strong polar-night jet, a displacement event will be fairly easily recovered from which is why I've been chasing a split even though the displacement charts were showing a reversal. The thermal dampening of the Wave-1 when you've got a still very cold displaced Vortex will allow that Vortex to push back to its initial position fairly quickly making any real Trop response fairly unlikely. I'm still waiting for now to see if a Wave-2 split comes out of nowhere but its looking increasingly unlikely in my opinion.

I suspect we'll have 1 more proper chance this Winter though, the timing of when a +VE EAMT and the MJO Phase 6/7 lag can be expected looks to time itself fairly well when looking roughly at mid to late February so if  we cannot get a major SSW that may be our last chance at getting early December style again.

Having said that I don't know the effects of the exiting -VE EPO so it's possible that that could help us closer to the end of this month but based off model outputs alone that's fairly unlikely.

Winter is most certainly not over but I dont see a Beast From The East repeat unless a split SSW happens or there's a strong response to the next MJO cycle.

I'm remaining positive though but I think beyond the response of the -VE EPO along with mid lat blocking there probably won't be much interest cropping up around early February unless we are really lucky.

I don't see it going to full zonal though, the North American Pattern is seemingly too variable right now for that to happen though another VI event may dampen that amplification as it did for late December/ early January so that needs to be watched.

A lot to keep an eye out for but not a load of interest, it's mainly so that we can get the best possible start up for the MJO Phase 6/7 to have the most effect if we can get to that before the end of Winter.

[andymusic]

7 minutes ago, TEITS said:

This is why you rarely hear me comment on any post referring to the Stratosphere. So many variables that would make my head hurt! Will it be a minor or major warming? displaced or split vortex? where will the split or displaced vortices/vortex be located? How will the current ENSO, MJO and other variables interact with such a minor/major warming? How is global warming affecting some of these variables?

Im not knocking anyone who uses such methods but as you know im not the biggest fan of these forecasts using teleconnections etc. However I was very unfair to the members who use them i.e Tamara, Chionomaniac, Catocol etc which I continue to feel ashamed.

I prefer just to stick to the operations/ensembles and my gut instincts. However my guts have been way off this winter, probably too many curries.

you keep listening to your gut instincts - with your experience you aren't normally far wrong - and keep the curries to a minimum lol

[Lukesluckybunch]

Better looking mean at 180!compare to 0z

[northwestsnow]

Well the SPV is pretty much done by the end but is GFS right ?

[bluearmy]

18 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Well the SPV is pretty much done by the end but is GFS right ?

It’s currently 2808 dam. By the end its sits s svallabard toward E greeny at 2880 dam. Unless we have further waves etc upwelling then I doubt it’s done.  The ec op has it at 2840 day 10 and the eps mean at day 15 is 2880dam so gfs op looks reasonable re the depth of the spv in two weeks. 

[TSNWK]

40 minutes ago, MJB said:

From this 192h

To this 324h

Seems an awful long way  back from this ....................BUT let's see where the GFS OP sits in the ENS .

 

Is it not a positive we are seeing Incremental improvements in the short abd mid term.. much rather see a decent chart at day8  and rubbish at day 14 than opposite 

[MJB]

5 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Is it not a positive we are seeing Incremental improvements in the short abd mid term.. much rather see a decent chart at day8  and rubbish at day 14 than opposite 

No doubt it is - my point was how GFS created a monster of a PV 

[phil nw.]

The high pressure looks like it's not going far and if we can rely on current extended ensembles it will be around into week 2.

 

Just some variation in exact positioning which will see slightly colder air brushing around the top and down to the east when it locates further west at times.

Around here in the midlands it's been a decent frosty few days/nights with some sparkling Winter sunshine but already high cloud has moved in today. I fear this will become the trend across most areas as the week goes on as more of the Atlantic air gets into the high.Likely a couple of frosty nights to come in some southern locations before the faux cold gets mixed out.

Not a lot of excitement it must be said in this slow moving pattern with any real weather across the north from time to time and then heading south east into parts of Europe.

 

[alexisj9]

10 hours ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Quick visit 

15th Feb 2018 

Tonights GFS 18z 

 

That's actually better, once the slide happens the rest will be in Canada not Greenland, however it's far to far away other than to see if a pattern develops. For now it is only on option of many at that time. Not looked but guessing this morning it's different.

[alexisj9]

5 hours ago, Penrith Snow said:

If February is mild as seems likely the seasonal model predictions back in the autumn of a front loaded winter becoming more NAO+ with time will have done well.

Really any SSW next week would take 3-4 weeks to propagate down so we may have to wait till March for a proper cold spell which IMO is very likely this year.

Andy

When was the last time a seasonal model was right about Feb, before winter. I'm not worried about it staying mild at all, I again expect the same as last time once a warm up happens, casue for me full warm up is still a while away.  Mobile for a bit and then a similar pattern back again. Althoughy preference would be different, I don't expect an easterly unless we do get the SSW you lot are on about.

[alexisj9]

3 hours ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

You really couldn't make it up..at 168 ukmo the whole of Europe except the UK is in the blue 850's!

It's lucky I have never seen a t168 verify as is at t0 then, have you?

[alexisj9]

1 hour ago, Summer8906 said:

Though mild winter followed by cold March is distinctly rare. Could happen I guess, though 2016 is the only instance in the past 40 odd years when it has, IIRC.

What ever happens you can not call this winter mild.

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, alexisj9 said:

What ever happens you can not call this winter mild.

you could if feb came in at 6c - that would be over a +2c anomaly for the winter.

Edited January 22, 2023 by feb1991blizzard

[mushymanrob]

The common theme on these charts is the size and depth of that TPV, so the detail may change as to the size/shape of the high nearby, but the constant is the TPV.

I just cannot see and chance of Northern Blocking favourable to us, and the chance of a proper cold spell, as long as that feature remains in situ at that strength. Sorry but thats the reality of it.

[alexisj9]

3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

you could if feb came in at 6c - that would be over a +2c anomaly for the winter.

That's more to do with how warm the warm bits are then how much cold has been about. The cold signal is wiped away, unless you look back at daily or weekly figures. It has not been mild, the monthly temps don't show the reality anymore. 

[Woldsedge]

6 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

you could if feb came in at 6c - that would be over a +2c anomaly for the winter.

A strong possibility going on current output. 

[mushymanrob]

9 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

What ever happens you can not call this winter mild.

According to the CET, add Decembers to Januaries so far, divide by 2 (2 months to date) and i make Winters current CET 4.7c which is on the milder side of average.

[Don]

We seem to have taken a bit of a backwards step this weekend regarding a colder outlook.  However, as others have stated, all is not lost yet with plenty to keep an eye on moving forward.  With the exception of 2018, we don't seem to have much luck with February these days though!

[Don]

1 hour ago, phil nw. said:

Not a lot of excitement it must be said in this slow moving pattern with any real weather across the north from time to time and then heading south east into parts of Europe.

Much inline with the Met Office extended forecast then?

[Paul33]

30 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

That's more to do with how warm the warm bits are then how much cold has been about. The cold signal is wiped away, unless you look back at daily or weekly figures. It has not been mild, the monthly temps don't show the reality anymore. 

My gas bill says it has not been a mild Winter so far !!!

[Rain All Night]

The one and only EPS cluster for days 8-10 is something nicer to look at, I think?

Edited January 22, 2023 by RainAllNight

[Methuselah]

9 minutes ago, Paul33 said:

My gas bill says it has not been a mild Winter so far !!!

Aye. Nothing lies like a gas meter!

[phil nw.]

25 minutes ago, Don said:

Much inline with the Met Office extended forecast then?

I haven't looked tbh Don,just my own thoughts.No surprise though given the trend over the last few days with this high sticking around for a while.

[northwestsnow]

Well forecasters in the states forecasting a warm east coast so i guess we cant blame all the cold weather engaging the warmer Atlantic and firing up the Atlantic Jet this time round..

[MJB]

1 hour ago, Louthweather said:

A strong possibility going on current output. 

Eh?

What output is showing the next 5 weeks at well above average temps?