Model Output Discussion - New Year and Beyond

[Matty88]

In the short/medium term the North Atlantic ridging could yeild some surprises especially if lows can slide down it's eastern flank and impact us on the colder side - a delicate scenerio but could bear fruit. The last few runs in particular are trending that way. This could be no bad thing if it falls right? Something to watch

I do however feel the PV beast firing out of Canada will make any BFTE unlikely, at least until late Feb/March. And let's face it most of us will probably be craving something a bit warmer/spring like by then!! 

Could always be worse...

[Don]

1 hour ago, Eagle Eye said:

The modulation of the MJO characteristics via Kelvin Wave signals suggest that eventually we should see a slow Nina evolution lag week 2 via the reaction of MJO linear time-series and exiting +VE EPO Wave. Though this may see a further snap of cold as the development of local relative cold pooling and some meridional Wave train help. I don't think it'll amount to much but at least its something probably more for the North and Scotland.

An I correct reading between the lines you are less optimistic today for February overall?

[Eagle Eye]

33 minutes ago, Don said:

An I correct reading between the lines you are less optimistic today for February overall?

Yes though late February may offer something. For late January up to mid February I'm not that optimistic at the moment. Of course a major SSW may happen but I'm finding it unlikely at the moment. General setup isn't that great for long-term cold but maybe a short cold snap is still possible.

[Methuselah]

18 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:

Yes though late February may offer something. For late January up to mid February I'm not that optimistic at the moment. Of course a major SSW may happen but I'm finding it unlikely at the moment. General setup isn't that great for long-term cold but maybe a short cold snap is still possible.

I'm hoping that, even if we do get one, it doesn't produce a cold and miserable spring.

[alexisj9]

5 hours ago, frosty ground said:

What you have written and what the tweet states are not the same.

have you missed a tweet?

Hmm I get the same meaning from the tweet, last sentence says, GFS shows there is no coupling between the strat and trop, so our weather won't be effected. Not an exact quote. 

However it's the GFS and it did get coupling wrong once already after the American winter storm, so I guess we'll see.

[alexisj9]

5 hours ago, billy said:

Yes -7 here again last night. Although we've had no snow this winter, I can't remember the last time we had a winter with so many hard air frosts with temps below -3 ....Yet strangely enough I saw some daffs in flower in the village yesterday

 

In the 90s can't remember the exact year. Lot's off severe frosts no snow.

[minus10]

Well....love from the vortex...

[alexisj9]

3 hours ago, TEITS said:

The affects of the heights across the arctic are having more of an effect on the UK on the 06Z GFS as I mentioned the other day.

Just a shame that the modelling is predicting the PV to be ramping up and heading back towards Greenland. Potential for a very stormy period to develop at the start of Feb and might yet prove to be cold and unsettled rather than mild/unsettled.

Plenty to keep our eyes on.

I'd the strat and trop are decoupled like the GFS thinks, may not happen that way. In fact it has already moved back and gone a little weaker. Which seem to be allowing stronger heights moving north like in your chart.

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

Continue to see MJO input showing up 

 

 

 

 

[Don]

40 minutes ago, minus10 said:

Well....love from the vortex...

One of those occasions where strat warmings are our foe?!  Doesn't look particularly mild though.

[feb1991blizzard]

2 hours ago, nick sussex said:

It’s best to be cautious when the models show any northerly whilst you still have a strong PV located in ne Canada .

What often happens is the models often underestimate this and as you tick down things get shunted eastwards .

On the reverse side here we’re seeing the Arctic high trying to keep troughing over Europe .

Its a case of eastwards energy v southwards energy and currently this meets near the UK .

If the Canadian PV can weaken , first signs is an elongation of that and some amplification upstream can aid in pulling this further nw .

If you can separate that from feeding Atlantic low pressure you have a better chance of some trough disruption sending energy se to the west of the UK .

Ironic isn't it, when we had a W based setup showing in the models we could have done with a shunt Eastwards, now we don't want one you can bet there'll be a big f-er

Edited January 23, 2023 by feb1991blizzard

[Climate Man]

53 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

I'm hoping that, even if we do get one, it doesn't produce a cold and miserable spring.

Almost a dead cert.

[northwestsnow]

Exeter referencing wintry showers for the North so while this isn't going to set the world on fire it might be worth watching if the 12Z runs enhance any PM air .

 

Edited January 23, 2023 by northwestsnow

[Rob 79812010]

1 hour ago, alexisj9 said:

In the 90s can't remember the exact year. Lot's off severe frosts no snow.

Dec 95 maybe!

[andymusic]

10 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Exeter referencing wintry showers for the North so while this isn't going to set the world on fire it might be worth watching if the 12Z runs enhance any PM air .

 

Just the beginnings of cold upgrades possibly - let's see where the gfs/ecm 12z takes us today

[TSNWK]

3 minutes ago, andymusic said:

Just the beginnings of cold upgrades possibly - let's see where the gfs/ecm 12z takes us today

Indeed... could be.. ssw looks a busted flush and there was never any guarantee with them. Let's go for a good old fashioned trop led run into narina until mid February then bring on spring 

[winterof79]

 

 

5 hours ago, andymusic said:

gfs 00z/06z looking good for coldies starting around about a week today

Thank god someone's commenting on the reliable and not telling us that Feb is a write off.Charts showing more mobility but far from mild.

I have no issues with this chart for example.

I do have issues with posters misreading charts and derailing the thread, this year moreso than any others hence my lack of posting.

Let the run end and try to make a level headed judgment and not try to score points for forecasting

Cheers

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited January 23, 2023 by winterof79

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

4 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

 

 

Thank god someone's commenting on the reliable and not telling us that Feb is a write off.Charts showing more mobility but far from mild.

I have no issues with this for. example.

I do have issues with posters misreading charts and derailing the thread, this year moreso than any others hence my lack of posting.

Let the run end and try to make a level headed judgment and not try to score points for forecasting

Cheers

 

 

 

 

 

 

Looking Baltic in Scandinavia with plenty of snow!

[Lukesluckybunch]

12z rolling out.let's see if we can build on them heights around 168 time..and a little less intense with them lows off the eastern seaboard..so looking at 168 onwards for something interesting hopefully with them heights pushing into greenland and trough over scandi!

[TSNWK]

looks a better " climb " of heights into Greenie at 144 this run... so at least I hope it will continue with theme of 00z and 06z run as we play out day 7 onwards.

[Mike Poole]

6 hours ago, Bricriu said:

I think it's a bust for positive impacts from the weakening of zonal winds, unless wave 2 warming starts showing up to kill off the pv. With a strong TPV will the mjo going to phase 6 or 7 be enough to produce a block in a favourable position? That's probably our only chance for a snowy outlook more widely, but we could well get further polar maritime shots over the next month if the jet plays ball. 

Yes, this is I think a good summary of where we are right now.  Over the last 72 hours we have gone from a situation where the strat warming might have been a big help, to one where it probably isn’t going to be, and may actually prove to be more a hinderance, at least in the short term.  

However, the model trend seems to be more supportive on continuing a more northwesterly flow, with the jet NW=>SE and a trough into Europe.  A flat westerly or even southwesterly seem much less likely.  So there may be snow opportunities within that basic pattern for some - and after that, then, yes, another helpful MJO cycle is possible - we hope.  

[nick sussex]

Quite a big difference over the Arctic between the GFS and UKMO at day 6.

The former has split the PV and the latter hasn’t . We don’t want the UKMO !

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Quite a big difference over the Arctic between the GFS and UKMO at day 6.

The former has split the PV and the latter hasn’t . We don’t want the UKMO !

GEM looks to follow UKMO 

 

[Cymro]

Can we just ban the Polar Vortex? Both in real terms and the word itself from this thread? It’s the bane of this Model thread! 

[nick sussex]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

GEM looks to follow UKMO 

 

Both look poor . That bloated PV needs to do one !