Model Output Discussion - New Year and Beyond

[blizzard81]

1 minute ago, TSNWK said:

Looks so primed for a great day 9 chart? Mid atlantic heights intobthe gap between those two lobes of the vortex.. but I guess the low at the base of Canadian lobe will roll across to meets its European cousin and flattern the pattern 

There's always another low isn't there?

[Allseasons-Si]

+20c on the jma this evening atop

Edit: infact i think that +20c is off the scale(black hole),meteociel need to extend there color pallette

and still the gefs ens mean geo pot heights showing +ve heights to our NE,so i am still not worried about writing anything off yet

sorry for the quick post,just been busy of late.

Edited January 22, 2023 by Allseasons-si
Added text

[minus10]

1 hour ago, Allseasons-si said:

+20c on the jma this evening atop

and still the gefs ens mean geo pot heights showing +ve heights to our NE,so i am still not worried about writing anything off yet

sorry for the quick post,just been busy of late.

....yes,  not the warmest set of gfes i've seen...

...mean still below Lt mean most of the time...

....also 12z ecm still showing that slight negative tilt i think at 240...

...perhaps i am just wishful thinking..

..Another frost forming here...will be 7th in a row if it does...

 

Edited January 22, 2023 by minus10
Wrong word

[goosey007]

44 minutes ago, Don said:

Problem is when it keeps getting pushed back, that often spells trouble.  However, I'm glad you're still confident and certainly wouldn't complain if we have a 2018 repeat!

Don’t mean to temper the mood but how often does a feb 2018 scenario occur these days 1 in 20 year ? Yes get lots of easterlies but not many huge low pressures march straight into it ! Perhaps it’s a new trend of course I’ll be happy 20cm here at 60 asl

[Dorsetbred]

50 minutes ago, Don said:

Problem is when it keeps getting pushed back, that often spells trouble.  However, I'm glad you're still confident and certainly wouldn't complain if we have a 2018 repeat!

Agreed, so often we see "10 day Outlook" and it pushes back and back and back, whilst we have 5 TRUE weeks of meteorological winter to go, every week it's pushes back, heads towards longer days, a warming in temperatures, less cold ground temperatures all due to the shorter days. Possibilities always exists, however every week backwards narrows those. We've seen a possible "split" and a possible displacement, and yet the current models seem more to be middle of the road.

 

Edited January 22, 2023 by Dorsetbred

[offerman]

3 hours ago, Kasim Awan said:

Still a solid signal for a mid Atlantic high in the next 7-10 days. Question is whether it can make a decent attempt at ridging northwards alongside a southeasterly push of trough energy into Europe. 

Spot on Kasmin. Let’s hope it can ridge north as these days this type of setup often struggles to ridge north soo let’s hope this time will be different. 

[*Stormforce~beka*]

1 hour ago, Don said:

I'm starting to fear that February could be similar to last year now!

What was it? I forgot 

[Don]

25 minutes ago, goosey007 said:

Don’t mean to temper the mood but how often does a feb 2018 scenario occur these days 1 in 20 year ? Yes get lots of easterlies but not many huge low pressures march straight into it ! Perhaps it’s a new trend of course I’ll be happy 20cm here at 60 asl

I'm not saying I necessarily think we will get a 2018 repeat, just wouldn't complain if we did!

6 minutes ago, *Stormforce~beka* said:

What was it? I forgot 

Very mild and snowless for most!

[Cuban Zebra]

I think people need to chill out! This reacting to each run as gospel is pretty tiresome and bound to ensure you end up in some kind of institution!! 
Things are so unstable and changing so fast and frequently, calling anything is fraught with danger!

[Ali1977]

Quite a chilly mean from the ECM at day 10 - some PM air in the ensemble’s you’d think!! A very cold Scandy too - now where’s that North Easterly

Edited January 22, 2023 by Ali1977

[Stuie]

ECM 12Z  850`s, steady.

Edit: To me, no signs of anything higher up throwing the model  into chaos.

NAO looking confident of going positive also.

Dumb location the UK... for cold anyway.

Edited January 22, 2023 by Stuie W

[bluearmy]

Can’t see much coming from the strat warmings atm 

I’ll keep my powder dry for the time being until the models get the big fall of upper flow into their starting data 

[78/79]

46 minutes ago, *Stormforce~beka* said:

What was it? I forgot 

A bit of wind blew me fence down one day,  and one or two lost their ridge tiles as I recall . That was the most notable thing about it.

[mountain shadow]

Sky Sports 1 now for anyone looking a snow fix.

 

 

9 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Can’t see much coming from the strat warmings atm 

I’ll keep my powder dry for the time being until the models get the big fall of upper flow into their starting data 

I thought that we shouldn't be looking for anything until late February? 

Well outside model range 

[tight isobar]

Scatter in abundance @12z ecm ens@ London ones.. although glass half full notions.. it’s clear to note the mean from around 1st feb .. and a more defined clutch of drop wanting members!.. the HP will be a “proper interesting watch “- through to the upcoming month “- I’m casting aside the bigger implications for now... and going simple Euro- window Synoptics!.. there is-certainly some meat on the bone.......... g’wan gunners @5. Clear

Edited January 22, 2023 by tight isobar

[Cambrian]

By means of playing an intricate game of pass the parcel (of successive low pressure systems), the much maligned Canadian PV, along with its newfound mate - the Scandinavian trough, is doing quite the number on the Atlantic ridge, between day 6 and day 10 on the 12z ECM operational run.

At day 6, the ridge is in the box seat, but a little low spins out of southern Greenland, deepening over Iceland by day 7, consolidating and extending the Scandinavian trough at day 8. Meanwhile, another little low has been ejected from south of Greenland, which deepens sharply and moves to the south of Iceland at day 9, to be just to the north of Scotland by day 10, just as yet another low is beginning to curl around the south of Greenland. 

 

In the meantime, the Atlantic high has weakened markedly, from 1045mb to 1030mb, it’s been squeezed south, flattened, forced to ridge west, with lower heights appearing to the west of Iberia. With all the energy it’s spinning out in those little lows, the Canadian PV lobe is itself diminished by day 10, with its influence moving west away from Greenland. 

And looking at that upper trough hanging south to the west of Iberia, shunting the heights to the east of it into the Mediterranean, it’s not too far-fetched to suggest that day 11 would well have featured a low over southern Scandinavia, a consolidated Scandinavian trough and a northerly flow over the UK and Ireland, part of a cross-polar flow from the Bering Sea. Little reason either to suspect that the next low in the sequence, on a more southerly track, will not also jump the Canadian ship, merge with the Scandinavian trough and drag it even further south. 

A really interesting operational run - with an iterative, attritional approach to ultimately getting some Arctic air back into northwest Europe. 

[blizzard81]

I'm happy with the output right now. No zonal train in sight which is what we normally see at this time of year. The high in our vicinity is quite a beast in it's own right. It's a beast because I know the models struggle with strong anticyclones in north west Europe - simply because it's the opposite of what they are used to.  Totally out of their comfort zone and will need time to adjust to a new normal. I believe there could be some very tasty looking runs in the next couple of days. 

[icykev]

1 hour ago, Cuban Zebra said:

I think people need to chill out! This reacting to each run as gospel is pretty tiresome and bound to ensure you end up in some kind of institution!! 
Things are so unstable and changing so fast and frequently, calling anything is fraught with danger!

Hallelujah

A little sense, the next month could see some outrageous predictions fail. Very bullish forecasts and maybe they are right with the uk high staying put for weeks.

A preety safe and predictable forecast. I doubt they yet understand the dynamics involved with everything going on I feel, it feels different this year, huge amounts of fog for the 1st half and it has been very cold at times with so much blocking. 

A -nao, I'll go 14th feb for east of north winds to begin to hit the UK + Ireland ❤

I don't know what will happen, just an opinion but I can see the cold biting us in the ass on the way out the door ❄

Stellas on @legritter hope you're good buddy

[bluearmy]

1 hour ago, mountain shadow said:

Sky Sports 1 now for anyone looking a snow fix.

 

 

I thought that we shouldn't be looking for anything until late February? 

Well outside model range 

My point is that it’s possible that the reversals over the polar field later week 1 in the strat could affect the current view of later week 2.p and certainly week 3.  it’s doubtful because you’d expect  the nwp to have a handle on it but it feasible. 

[snefnug]

3 hours ago, blizzard81 said:

There's always another low isn't there?

That’ll be the handy fair weather….. I’ll get me coat…

[MJB]

1 hour ago, tight isobar said:

Scatter in abundance @12z ecm ens@ London ones.. although glass half full notions.. it’s clear to note the mean from around 1st feb .. and a more defined clutch of drop wanting members!.. the HP will be a “proper interesting watch “- through to the upcoming month “- I’m casting aside the bigger implications for now... and going simple Euro- window Synoptics!.. there is-certainly some meat on the bone.......... g’wan gunners @5. Clear

Some decent one's in there for sure , stating the obvious the drifting HP is key for us .

March blizzard with 2 feet of snow or MA to lift the title ? I will take the title and wait another year for my snow

[Allseasons-Si]

A break here perhaps with more heights nudging into the Griceland area...

18z vs 12.

the NWP have been towting at this(control mainly),and i just want to ask a question as it's totally over my head,...do NWP'S(the models) take into account the strat warmings?

i am sure they lag or lack on the subject and i have seen a quick turn in the models when they catch up.

[blizzard81]

Just now, Allseasons-si said:

A break here perhaps with more heights nudging into the Griceland area...

18z vs 12.

the NWP have been towting at this(control mainly),and i just want to ask a question as it's totally over my head,...do NWP'S(the models) take into account the strat warmings?

i am sure they lag or lack on the subject and i have seen a quick turn in the models when they catch up.

I think you have more than a point. 

[minus10]

If only this high would retrogress !!

[Allseasons-Si]

There is a backtrack on the tpv to our NW getting in on this run through the UK and is a slower meridial run just past the UK :-IE more north to south with the jet

more backtracks please

as i said in my previous run,...mean heights gain control to our NE.

 

Edited January 22, 2023 by Allseasons-si