Model Output Discussion - New Year and Beyond

[TSNWK]

Just now, nick sussex said:

Both look poor . That bloated PV needs to do one !

Dam.  As GFS was maintaining done interest as it did previous runs.

[Paul White.]

4 minutes ago, Cymro said:

Can we just ban the Polar Vortex? Both in real terms and the word itself from this thread? It’s the bane of this Model thread! 

The phrase’s I can’t stand are “Euro heights are a winter killer” but the one that slaughters my goat more than anything is “TickTock” please do not use that phrase. Repeated use inevitably leads to the poster visiting the ignore list.

Now back to the thread. Next week some models are showing a W/NW flow which should bring some winter hazards to some. I know it’s not Narnia that many crave, but still!

[bluearmy]

24 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

GEM looks to follow UKMO 

 

Did someone diss the gem ?

the weakening upper vortex should now be in the starting data on the model runs. Tomorrow we see reversal at the top of the strat around the pole. So I’m now looking for less expected developments in model runs in the 7 to 10 day period. Yes i know this is too far out to be more than watchable at the moment but if we are to see the nwp change it’s current evolution in response to any changes high up then if we don’t see them within a couple days on the modelling then they aren’t going to happen. 
 

I put forward the gem day 10 as the first ‘unexpected chart’ 

(and you have to be looking hemispherically for these developments) 

Edited January 23, 2023 by bluearmy

[JoeShmoe]

Let’s call it as it is, very poor output for coldies but the last few weeks has been wintry for many so chins up ! 

[Methuselah]

14 minutes ago, Paul White. said:

The phrase’s I can’t stand are “Euro heights are a winter killer” but the one that slaughters my goat more than anything is “TickTock” please do not use that phrase. Repeated use inevitably leads to the poster visiting the ignore list.

Now back to the thread. Next week some models are showing a W/NW flow which should bring some winter hazards to some. I know it’s not Narnia that many crave, but still!

What an 'orrible phrase! 

[Drifter]

Snow showers would soon start piling in to the north west from this chart. 

[Ali1977]

1 minute ago, Drifter said:

Snow showers would soon start piling in to the north west from this chart. 

 

[Tim Bland]

528 dam and freezing level low ~ so a good chance of a proper pm flow and wintry precip for some…

[andymusic]

4 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

528 dam and freezing level low ~ so a good chance of a proper pm flow and wintry precip for some…

GFS 12z FI land but that's a few times that has been shown - so maybe an outside chance at a trend - hopefully won't be watered down when it gets to 0z

slightly off topic but - Tune into BBC the one show tonight - apparently there will be a feature on Ben Nevis's ski resort

Edited January 23, 2023 by andymusic

[tight isobar]

4 minutes ago, andymusic said:

GFS 12z FI land but that's a few times that has been shown - so maybe an outside chance at a trend - hopefully won't be watered down when it gets to 0z

I’d just like to highlight the point: b4 the modelling pv- incursion.. there is AMPLE opportunity for a north..” more likely north easterly flow”.. again someare blinkered by the nxt 4/7 days.. as they go stalking stark Synoptics!.. we’ll wait to see the ecm take on the evolution.. and-possible inflow... again keep ya eyes continental- polar continental!!... 

Edited January 23, 2023 by tight isobar

[jon_d1983]

1 hour ago, Rob 79812010 said:

Dec 95 maybe!

End of December 95 was very cold in Glasgow when I stayed there, it was like -18/20C and I remember being asked to go and run the cars in the driveway to stop them from freezing too much. If I'm correct it was a lobe of high pressure than came down from the polar area over iceland into the uk? a very unusual set up which thawed as quickly as it cam leading to lots of burst pipes! 

[Purga]

1 hour ago, nick sussex said:

Quite a big difference over the Arctic between the GFS and UKMO at day 6.

The former has split the PV and the latter hasn’t . We don’t want the UKMO !

Yes, with UKMO we'll end up with a flow as flat as a witches t*t.

 

[NorthernRab]

39 minutes ago, JoeShmoe said:

Let’s call it as it is, very poor output for coldies but the last few weeks has been wintry for many so chins up ! 

If the GFS is still showing important developments at day 6 then it really shouldn't be discounted so I wouldn't say it's "very poor output for coldies".

[Penrith Snow]

48 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

528 dam and freezing level low ~ so a good chance of a proper pm flow and wintry precip for some…

The one thing I have learnt over the years is don’t believe the models promising cold zonality 10 days out.

I can do well out of cold zonality being at 400feet in Cumbria but these charts Never verify!

Andy

[Stuie]

Day 6, nothing mild but the 850`s are trending upwards... (ECM)

 

Edit: AO and NAO added

Edited January 23, 2023 by Stuie W

[northwestsnow]

EC gives a toppler day 9

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

EC gives a toppler day 9

Chilly 

[January Snowstorm]

8 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

EC gives a toppler day 9

Sure is, a 6 hour one

Poor charts really, but not raging mild either. 

Look at that vortex though!

[Ali1977]

1 minute ago, January Snowstorm said:

Sure is, a 6 hour one

Poor charts really, but not raging mild either. 

Look at that vortex though!

I think the NH on a while actually looks pretty good for coldies , with plenty of WAA heating to the Arctic in various places. Is this sign of a weakening of strat winds of the current warming!! 

[northwestsnow]

By day 10 there is lots of cold air around suddenly..

[Stuie]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

By day 10 there is lots of cold air around suddenly..

Not sure that fits with a +AO.

Something or someone is right somewhere lol.

[tight isobar]

3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

By day 10 there is lots of cold air around suddenly..

As was proposed!.. the supporting data should be both solid- revealing.. the osc- phasing is coming into play now....

[blizzard81]

5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

By day 10 there is lots of cold air around suddenly..

A decent run by the ecm this evening. 

[Mike Poole]

ECM very similar to GEM at T240, with that feature into the arctic from the pacific side.  Interesting - maybe sniffing something, and difficult for the whole trop vortex to reform as one from there.

GFS altogether different.

[on the coast]

America is well and truly frozen. Must be a concern over there?

[nick sussex]

4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

By day 10 there is lots of cold air around suddenly..

Which will do its best to miss the UK !

The pattern does give a chance if that PV relented even a little . If we were in December I think there would be less frustration .

We don’t have weeks now to play with , it will soon be February .