Model Output Discussion - New Year and Beyond

[ribster]

25 minutes ago, Gowon said:

Horrible for eastern parts with cold rain 

Superb!

[Purga]

50 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The GFS playing with another solution for where the high goes in the shorter term .

Its a shame there wasn’t some deeper cold associated with that ne flow but that could still change.

Ironically this GFS run looks better shorter term but likely worse later .

 

We're relying on you to cheer us up Nick!

We certainly don't want Uncle Barty parking his ar*e over the Alps.

Edited January 21, 2023 by Purga

[Don]

47 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Latest strat forecasts show the zonal flow re strengthens days 15/16 as the displaced spv drift back towards n Greenland. Whether we then see another big warming attempt to split that would be the question as we head into mid feb ….. if it’s doesn’t then it’s getting late …..

Is this from the GFS?

9 minutes ago, Purga said:

We're relying on you to cheer us up Nick!

We certainly don't want Uncle Barty parking his ar*e over the Alps.

Absolute horrific chart and can say goodbye to winter if this ends up being close to the mark!!

Edited January 21, 2023 by Don

[LRD]

7 minutes ago, Purga said:

We're relying on you to cheer us up Nick!

We certainly don't want Uncle Barty parking his ar*e over the Alps.

Lovely. If we can't have winter, then let's have spring. More autumn would just be utterly boring

[Bristawl Si]

11 minutes ago, Purga said:

We're relying on you to cheer us up Nick!

We certainly don't want Uncle Barty parking his ar*e over the Alps.

Abs bliss! Maybe my 20c dream, by mid-Feb, is a poss.

[LRD]

Boooo, more (eternal) autumn

But I'm sure the MoJO and the brewers droop circulation and all other sort of stuff will give us a freezing March which hardly any one wants. Can not wait

[swfc]

1 hour ago, Mike Poole said:

Apart from it’s freezing cold outside and has been all week?

Yes, no snow for most, I get it!

No clear signal from the ECM clusters, T192-T240:

There’s the +NAO one in cluster 2, but the others have some amplification upstream, and lower heights Europe, no clearer on this timeframe.

T264+:

Varyingly successful attempts to build heights into scandi on the first three, Atlantic ridge the result on the fourth.  

Yes it has been freezing but its January. I'm with you on cold weather but its debatable if its worth the gas bills without snow imo

[LRD]

2 minutes ago, swfc said:

Yes it has been freezing but its January. I'm with you on cold weather but its debatable if its worth the gas bills without snow imo

Totally agree. But the bar has been set so low that 4 or 5C above freezing and a bit of frost overnight is now considered good January cold for some of us

[Don]

1 minute ago, Bristle Si said:

Abs bliss! Maybe my 20c dream, by mid-Feb, is a poss.

Definitely a possibility as 20C was achieved late February 2019 and after breaching 40C last summer just makes it all the more likely to get 20C plus in February now!  However, I hope that does not happen!!

1 minute ago, LRD said:

Totally agree. But the bar has been set so low that 4 or 5C above freezing and a bit of frost overnight is now considered good January cold for some of us

It's been 13 years since a genuinely cold January, so perhaps that's not surprising?!

[LRD]

1 minute ago, Don said:

Definitely a possibility as 20C was achieved late February 2019 and after breaching 40C last summer just makes it all the more likely to get 20C plus in February now!  However, I hope that does not happen!!

Ah, why not Don? If we can't get decent cold then let's get ridiculous warmth

[Don]

2 minutes ago, LRD said:

Ah, why not Don? If we can't get decent cold then let's get ridiculous warmth

No, ridiculous warmth is all to common nowadays!  Lets at least have something seasonal if not perishing cold?!

Edited January 21, 2023 by Don

[LRD]

3 minutes ago, Don said:

Definitely a possibility as 20C was achieved late February 2019 and after breaching 40C last summer just makes it all the more likely to get 20C plus in February now!  However, I hope that does not happen!!

It's been 13 years since a genuinely cold January, so perhaps that's not surprising?!

Well, 10 years I'd say. 2013 was a cold one. But that is exactly my point. Jan has been such a pathetic 'winter' month this last decade that 5C and a bit of frost is now considered cold

[LRD]

3 minutes ago, Don said:

No, ridiculous warmth is all to common nowadays!  Lets at least have something seasonal if not perishing cold?!

Seasonal these days would be about 8C and rain. No thanks. Either significant cold and snow or spring-like warmth please. The in-between is too grim for words

Edited January 21, 2023 by LRD

[Don]

Just now, LRD said:

Well, 10 years I'd say. 2013 was a cold one. But that is exactly my point. Jan has been such a pathetic 'winter' month this last decade that 5C and a bit of frost is now considered cold

2021 was actually colder than 2013 at 3.2C, so was also colder than the 61-90 average but by no means exceptional compared to the likes of 1985, 1987 and 2010 etc.  I do not consider this January to be cold by any means, but for a milder than average month, it has not been without interest!

3 minutes ago, LRD said:

Seasonal these days would be about 8C and rain. No thanks. Either significant cold and snow or spring-like warmth please. The in-between is too grim for words

That would be my preference!

[LRD]

3 minutes ago, Don said:

2021 was actually colder than 2013 at 3.2C, so was also colder than the 61-90 average but by no means exceptional compared to the likes of 1985, 1987 and 2010 etc.  I do not consider this January to be cold by any means, but for a milder than average month, it has not been without interest!

This is going WILDLY off topic but in 2013 I saw about 10-12 days of cold and snow IMBY. In 2021 I can't remember anything of note

Edited January 21, 2023 by LRD

[Penrith Snow]

30 minutes ago, Purga said:

We're relying on you to cheer us up Nick!

We certainly don't want Uncle Barty parking his ar*e over the Alps.

That quote really made me laugh, without dark humour everyone on this thread would be insane!

[Don]

Just now, LRD said:

This is going WILDLY off topic but in 2013 I saw about 10=12 days of cold and snow IMBY. In 2021 I can't remember anything of note

You're correct January 2013 was far snowier than 2021 for sure!

[Bricriu]

Looking forward to ridiculous warmth at this time of year is like looking for ridiculous cold in June -  a waste of seasons! 

[Bristawl Si]

19 minutes ago, Bricriu said:

Looking forward to ridiculous warmth at this time of year is like looking for ridiculous cold in June -  a waste of seasons! 

It's all about weather preferences though, so it's defo not "ridiculous". It may seem strange, if one is wedded to the "seasons" being as they 'should be'.

[snow mad]

1 hour ago, Don said:

You're correct January 2013 was far snowier than 2021 for sure!

Except for Suffolk. 2021 was better and longer that the BFTE for snow 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

Quick visit 

15th Feb 2018 

Tonights GFS 18z 

 

[LetItSnow!]

I’m all about preferences but in my opinion wanting ridiculous warmth in the winter is bizarre due to the negative impacts on wildlife, particularly with frosts than can damage plants that are more developed than they should be. For weather enthusiasts I’m surprised that our normal winter weather is so grim. Over time you get a thick skin to it. 6-8C and raining is far better than 20C in winter. In only two months the spring equinox will have taken place and that slow climb into spring will be here. 

 

Regardless of our opinions, the weather will do what it wants to and make fools of us all  

Just now, LetItSnow! said:

I’m all about preferences but in my opinion wanting ridiculous warmth in the winter is bizarre due to the negative impacts on wildlife, particularly with frosts than can damage plants that are more developed than they should be. For weather enthusiasts I’m surprised that our normal winter weather is so grim. Over time you get a thick skin to it. 6-8C and raining is far better than 20C in winter. In only two months the spring equinox will have taken place and that slow climb into spring will be here. 

 

Regardless of our opinions, the weather will do what it wants to and make fools of us all  

wrong thread please move to winter chat please 

[KTtom]

Gfs mean for week 1 February seems to suggest we're heading back mild with the high that wobbles around the UK for the next 10 days or so finally sinks south after giving up the fight with the PV! Fairly good agreement this will happen with no model showing a more favourable outcome that ive looked at.. Met also hinting at this pattern until at least mid February. 

[Penrith Snow]

If February is mild as seems likely the seasonal model predictions back in the autumn of a front loaded winter becoming more NAO+ with time will have done well.

Really any SSW next week would take 3-4 weeks to propagate down so we may have to wait till March for a proper cold spell which IMO is very likely this year.

Andy

[carinthian]

Morning all. Latest ECM run still has winter in its reach to start the new month. Looks like cold intensity building again over NE Europe and could easily develop into a blocking scenario close to the British Isles.  Think still plenty on interest this coming week to watch developments. At the moment rock solid agreements in the models at 96t .

c