2023 Tornado Events, Outbreaks and Chat

[Metwatch]

 

 

[WeatherArc]

Reeds take on the 2024 tornado season

Here's Where More Tornadoes Will Happen in 2024

T.CO

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[WeatherArc]

Well just when i thought this season was over, looks like it wants to give us one last show. Big time trough ejection next weekend, over the last 48 hours models have trended it slower and given it a slight negative tilt, may need to watch this one closely. SPC has now issued a 15% risk area 6 days out, some pretty strong wording with this "The upper-level trough is forecast to move into the southern Plains on Saturday. Ahead of the trough, surface dewpoints in the 60s F appear likely from east Texas into parts of Arkansas where moderate instability could be in place by midday Saturday. Thunderstorm development appears likely during the day from east Texas northeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. The progressive nature of the trough, along with strong deep-layer shear and adequate low-level moisture, will favor severe thunderstorm development. All hazards will be possible including tornadoes, wind damage and isolated large hail. The models are now in good agreement concerning this scenario, and a 15 percent contour has been added for Saturday in parts of east Texas, northwestern Louisiana and the Ark-La-Tex."

Looking at the 12z runs tonight it seems that the GFS wants a much quicker and negatively tilted trough to move through while the euro has it slower and taking on a more neutral/slightly positive tilt.  

Regardless of positioning this is a strong trough, the 500mb jet streak looks to be anywhere between 90-120 knots, storms will have ample shear to tap into if they can form.

Weathertrackus on twitter points out that the overall trend seems to be one of slowing the trough and cold front down, this may give the surface low time to strengthen, allowing for higher 850mb winds and low level shear.

Personally, i suspect the GFS is way too quick with the trough and the euro a little too slow,  imo most likely area to see any severe weather is around the mississippi valley, areas such as eastern Texas, Arkansas, Mississippi, Tennessee, Kentucky, Missouri and southern Illinois  should watch how models develop over the next week. 

This does slightly concern me, global models struggle with moisture at this time of year especially this far out, seeing 60s dewpoints already at the tennessee border on most runs is very potent. The moisture will decide what states see a severe risk/how high end that risk is.

12 GEFS, In line with my thinking that the GFS is being too fast, very potent looking trough. 

Something else that stands out to me right now is the lapse rates, the last few events we have really struggled with low-mid levels, however looking at a few random soundings taken from the 12 GFS the lapse rates across the profile look supportive. 

Overall, next weekend needs watching closely for severe potential, will be interesting to see how models trend over the next few days. 

[WeatherArc]

12z GFS continues the trend of slowing, increasingly looking like an absolute unit of a trough ejection next saturday

 

Powerful looking low level jet as well 

Moisture upgrades on the 12z , 60+ dewpoints now being pulled as far north as south western Kentucky. 

Will be interesting to see how the CAMS run with this. 

Edited December 5, 2023 by WeatherArc

[WeatherArc]

still think saturday could bring a severe wind threat, however not so sure about tornadoes now 

[WeatherArc]

Today has completely overperformed, multiple discrete supercells are currently tracking through the Mississippi, Tennessee and Kentucky areas with at least one strong-violent tornado reported near Clarksville Tennessee 

The SPC has now upgraded the slight risk to an enhanced one with a 10% sig tor area

 

[WeatherArc]

 

[WeatherArc]

Quick look at radar, i would watch the new cells firing in Mississippi

 

At the moment they seem to be large hailers but would watch for increasing tornado potential if they can stay discrete over the next 2 hours.   

Edited December 9, 2023 by WeatherArc

[WeatherArc]

 

These cells to the West of Nashville 100% need watching, probably either very close to if not already producing a tornado

Edited December 9, 2023 by WeatherArc

[WeatherArc]

An outbreak of multiple tornadic supercells producing strong tornadoes is underway across the states of Mississippi, Tennessee and Kentucky 

Edited December 9, 2023 by WeatherArc

[WeatherArc]

Concerned about the Nashville metro and downtown area, low level jet increasing substantially infront of a right moving supercell

 

[WeatherArc]

Vince reporting tornado possibly on the ground with that cell outside Nashville 

PDS Tornado warning for downtown Nashville

 

Edited December 9, 2023 by WeatherArc

[WeatherArc]

Unfortunately the worst case scenario for today is unfolding  374,000 people in a PDS warning, NWS reporting complete destruction of properties possible. Can only hope it lifts before it hits the city.

 

[WeatherArc]

Seems the Nashville cell has gone/is going through an occlusion, the original tornado has lifted with a newer circulation trying to take over.

 

[WeatherArc]

Sounding from Nashville

148 3cape with that hodograph 

[WeatherArc]

Vince reporting powerflashes in Nashville, possible strong tornado on the ground in a highly populated area. 

 

Edit-Confirmed tornado

Edited December 9, 2023 by WeatherArc

[WeatherArc]

not good

 

Edited December 9, 2023 by WeatherArc

[WeatherArc]

Tornado emergency

 

[Vortex3929]

50 minutes ago, WeatherArc said:

Vince reporting tornado possibly on the ground with that cell outside Nashville 

PDS Tornado warning for downtown Nashville

 

Vince is still in the area. Driving through the area just been hit

[WeatherArc]

Everybody in Gallatin needs to be underground 

 

[matty40s]

 

[WeatherArc]

 

[WeatherArc]

I dont like drawing comparisons but this radar image is so reminiscent of moore 2013, absolutely insane. 

[WeatherArc]

Another sounding from the near storm environment

 

 

 

[Allseasons-Si]

Got footage of the tornado with some intense power flashes...