2023 Tornado Events, Outbreaks and Chat

[LeeKay/]

@Allseasons-si you read my mind!

Ace,with audio to, beats our puny storms!

Edited June 23, 2023 by LeeKay/

[Allseasons-Si]

1 minute ago, LeeKay/ said:

@Allseasons-si you read my mind!

Wrapping up on Reed timmers feed now...

 

[Allseasons-Si]

T-warned now.

[LeeKay/]

@Allseasons-si yeah i got both feeds on and shut off the timmer chat.

 

Red warning

 

[LeeKay/]

Brandon Ivey credit

 

 

 

[Allseasons-Si]

Here we go...

 

[LeeKay/]

here we go

[Allseasons-Si]

A brief tor here...

 

 

[Allseasons-Si]

Check out Dan fitts feed,...wrapping up...

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[Allseasons-Si]

Wow what a cell...

 

Tornado.

[Allseasons-Si]

[WeatherArc]

Enhanced Risk for most of the Ohio valley region, risks include tornadoes (some may be strong) large hail and winds gusting over 75mph

Potential strong tornado risk for Northern Kentucky or Southern Ohio, risk is conditional of storm mode.

Latest (16z) HRRR run for Northern Kentucky at 01z, large SRH and 3cape values should help increase the risk of any discrete cell producing a tornado. Will note the presence of some CINH in the profile, might just be a HRRR thing due to it over mixing moisture but worth keeping an eye on, would keep storms elevated/decrease tor risk.

Latest Satellite, note the absence of clouds in the target area this may either help by allowing instability to build or mix out the dew points leading to elevated storms.

Amazing surface obs though, widely 68+ dew points with spots on the Indiana border reaching 75, wouldn't be surprised to see SBcape start to reach the 4000j/kg mark

Surface vorticity/3cape crossover, if the CINH in the profile can be resolved i really can't rule out a localised tornado outbreak with values like these.

Edited June 25, 2023 by WeatherArc

[WeatherArc]

Powerful supercell near Indianapolis, likely a tornado producer if it can remain dominant.

Edited June 25, 2023 by WeatherArc

[WeatherArc]

Large and potentially intense tornado ongoing right now

Really concerning radar image, debris ball evident

 

[Metwatch]

This is insane.

[Allseasons-Si]

3 minutes ago, Metwatch said:

This is insane.

You bet me to it,what a sight and i hope that no one was injured in that brief episode.

[Allseasons-Si]

I will be watching the chasers again this evening as the ENH risk had become MDT with 2% probability of tornadoes and 30% probability of large hail...

[Allseasons-Si]

 

[Allseasons-Si]

Just recently uploaded by Aaron Jayjack of a tonado that hit Didsbury,Alberta a short while ago.

 

[WeatherArc]

Been a good season, lots of incredibly photogenic tors and supercells. Will be interesting to see what the second season from October to Jan is like as the last few years have been very active due to La Niña. I wonder if it will be a much quieter season now that El Niño has kicked in or whether the record SSTs will keep Gulf moisture in place to be pumped up by strong low pressure systems. 

[matty40s]

 

Edited July 20, 2023 by matty40s

[Summer Sun]

A Tornado has hit the Milan metro area today, it hit at around 11am local time

 

[WeatherArc]

Thats a pretty unusual sight for August....

Not just the Nam 3km, GFS and RAP onboard, may need watching closely esp if morning convection clears out before main development region. 

Edited August 8, 2023 by WeatherArc

[WeatherArc]

Updates on tmrws severe weather potential.

Both the HRRR and NAM 3km now agree on a potent environment ahead of a developing cold front, questions still there over 3cape, lapse rates, morning convection and capping however the potential for a very rare August severe weather event is increasing. The main threat area seems to be Eastern Oklahoma, Southern Missouri, North-Central Arkansas and extreme South Eastern Kansas. 

Hodographs that wouldn't look out of place for  spring. 

Both models are also showing a discrete/semi-discrete storm mode with 2-5 supercells developing either on the front or in the open warm sector. 

Profiles that wouldn't look out of place for April or May, 35+kt 850mb winds will allow for large, curving hodographs with 0-3km helicity widely above 480 m/s. This combined with widely 3000+ j/kg of Sbcape will allow for supercells with all hazards. 

I  would keep an eye on 3cape however, seems to be a distinct lack of it. This may hamper tornadogenesis. 

[matty40s]

Visually very clear footage from Reed of a decent cell.