2023 Tornado Events, Outbreaks and Chat

[WeatherArc]

Wow, that colorado cell is absolutely crazy, i didn't expect anything like this today. 

Reed reporting an extremely deviant and strong tornado. Extremely cyclic cell as well. 

Vince and Reed still live and covering it.

Edited August 9, 2023 by WeatherArc

[WeatherArc]

Sounds like Reed has had a close call with a violent, deviant tornado in Colorado. Hes ok but has had his rear windscreen blown out.

He also seems to of lost his shirt 

Tornado wedged out but has since occluded and dissipated, the supercell continues to cyclically produce tornadoes. 

 

Edited August 9, 2023 by WeatherArc

[WeatherArc]

With Autumn starting to set in the 'megatrough' season also starts. A few models are hinting at a return of Western Troughing over the next week, however as of right now an omega block looks like it may block its advancement. Will watch for potential severe weather events/outbreaks if it can advance.

Both 2021s and 2022s second season were incredibly active with multiple notable severe outbreaks such as December 10th 2021, lets see if 2023 continues that trend. 

 

[WeatherArc]

Massive upgrades on the GFS, hints of a major severe weather outbreak in the Oklahoma/Kansas regions on Thursday the 21st

                                             

Big trough swings in, omega block gets completely pushed out.

Massive low level response in connection with the advancement of the trough. 850mb winds accelerate up to 50 knots, providing high-end low level shear. 

Dewpoints look very good aswell, high 60s to low 70s 

Cape in excess of 2000 j/kg and steep lapse rates will allow for the development of severe thunderstorms, those storms will then be able to use over 350m2 of Storm Relative Helicity. 

Large area of Energy Helicity Index exceeding values of 6. 

2 soundings from Central Oklahoma, While there is a slight cap, CIN values are likely too low to stop any well developed supercell from drilling through the stable layer. The CIN may actually help these storms by keeping them isolated. 

 

The 06z GFS only upgrades the trend with cape now reaching over 3000 j/kg and 3km SRH in excess of 500 m2.

Capping still present here, lets see what the shorter range models do with this in the coming days, the potential for a high-end outbreak is possible. 

[WeatherArc]

I should say nothing is completely set in stone, we are still 180 hours out so lots of things will change, however both the euro and gefs agree on a period of western troughing with a strong jet. 

 

[WeatherArc]

GFS been hinting the last few runs that another large trough will move in late September/early October, 300 hours out so will see if its still showing up in a few days. 

Lots of models hinting that we could be in for quite the active period over the next few weeks though, waiting for the NAM to come into range for a potential severe weather event on Thursday

Edited September 16, 2023 by WeatherArc

[WeatherArc]

 

[WeatherArc]

A level 2/5 risk is in place mainly for Oklahoma today, main threat will be supercells with large/very large hail however a brief tornado or two cannot be ruled out.

 

Latest satellite shows morning convection ongoing across the Eastern portions of the state, however to the West substantial clearing is ongoing, allowing for cape to build. Dont think this morning convection should be too much of an issue. 

Interestingly, the latest 15z RAP has upgraded low level shear, although tornado threat will stay relatively low due to capping and a lack of 3cape.

 

HRRR pretty much the same

[WeatherArc]

20 hours later and the NAM is being quite consistent with all of its runs, possibility of a significant all hazards severe weather day. 3km NAM should be in range tonight, lets see what it shows.

Im surprised the SPC has this area in just general t-storms, maybe its to do with uncertainty over cells firing on the dry line but still there should be a shortwave moving through, i would expect the risk to be upgraded soon. 

[WeatherArc]

 

[WeatherArc]

Saturday also looks like it could be a very interesting day.

00z sounding for sat in Northern Oklahoma, looks like the NAM is doing what it does best  will wait for HRRR to get better picture. 

[WeatherArc]

Vince now live

 

[WeatherArc]

Rapidly lowering wall cloud on vinces stream very close to tornado

[WeatherArc]

My goodness that storm last night in Oklahoma is one of the most beautiful i've ever seen 

 

 

Edited September 24, 2023 by WeatherArc

[WeatherArc]

Eyes on Wednesday night next week for a potential severe weather event, lots of factors still have to come together but recent model upgrades are making it look like a very interesting setup. 

Large trough moves in with accompanying surface low.

12z GFS depicts a strong low level response as the surface low moves to the north east, strongest low level jet ive seen in a while. This allows for large values (350+) of SRH

Cape looks to be relatively low (1000-1700) however with the strong windfields the GFS is showing 1500j/kg will likely be plenty for severe weather.

The main problem with the setup right now is the moisture and nature of that surface low. A more closed, deeper and slower moving low would allow for backed winds and a slower cold front, the backed winds will also allow for a greater northwards pull of good moisture from the Gulf. Going to be an interesting few days of model watching coming up. 

[WeatherArc]

Maytober? 

Interestingly runs like this one for Wednesday night next week keeps showing up on model runs, even has ensemble support. 

200 hours out, lets see how it trends over the next few days. 

[WeatherArc]

After about 10 busts and what feels like 10 years severe potential may be making a comeback to the US, especially across Dixie alley, main day seems to be monday. Will keep an eye on what models decide to do over the next 2 days, SPC has issued 15% severe risks for day 4 and 5. 

Some disagreements at the moment between models, mainly with boundaries and strength of the low level jet. Nam comes into range tomorrow so will be interesting to see its take. 

[WeatherArc]

[WeatherArc]

Considering this is only 18z on monday, thats an impressive environment. Very interested to see the 00z HRRR. 

[WeatherArc]

Interesting......

That low looks a lot better on the 00z, also slightly slower. 

[WeatherArc]

33 hours out, still many uncertainty's mainly to do with the extent of morning convection and its impact on the environment. 

 

I suspect HRRR may be slightly overconvecting, plus for some reason during recent events its struggled with accuracy/placement of developing storms. Reed has noted a potential EML showing on a few models, this may help suppress some of this early convection and allow for ample (1000-2000 j/kg) instability to build. 

A strong (45 kts+) LLJ will develop allowing for strong low level shear with SRH across the target area being 350+ 

 

Northern Louisiana/Southern Arkansas has the best shear, however the effect of morning convection is pretty obvious, East Texas and Southern Louisiana doesnt have much early convection allowing for the environment to recover throughout the day, low level lapse rates could still be an issue. 

 

The RRFS on the other hand seems to show lots less early convection and more isolated potential supercells, however the 850 LLJ is much weaker.

 

[WeatherArc]

!  SPC has just upgraded tomorrows outlook to enhanced.  

Tornado driven upgrade with a large 10% hatched area for the risk of EF2+ Tornadoes, also a 30% risk for damaging winds and a 15% chance of large hail.

"Severe thunderstorms are likely Monday afternoon into Monday night from east Texas into parts of the Lower-Mississippi Valley and Southeast. Damaging winds and several tornadoes, a few of which may be strong, will be the primary hazards. However, some large hail is also possible"

Not a great combination, strong tornadoes+fast storms+dixie alley terrain and in complete darkness. 

 

Edited November 19, 2023 by WeatherArc

[WeatherArc]

The 18z HRRR is most favorable run ive seen yet, multiple semi-discrete supercells with all hazards, still not 100% about tomorrow but if this verifies a significant severe weather outbreak is possible. 

[WeatherArc]

Wanted to stay up just to see 00z HRRR ahead of tomorrows severe weather event. 

 

Multiple different soundings taken from across (Southern Arkansas, Louisiana, East Texas, Western Mississippi) the large warm sector. 

Getting increasingly concerned for a potential localised tornado outbreak. 1200+ sbcape, 50+ 3cape combined with 350+ 0-3km SRH and some very streamwise hodographs. 

IMO the only potential thing holding this event back is the lapse rates.

EHI over the past few runs has massively uptrended, now seeing a few spots of 7+ compared to 3+ we were seeing yesterday.

Simulated reflectivity also concerns me, the stratiform rain which was a potential bust factor has been shifted north, allowing for ample semi-discrete supercells to develop.

Overall, a significant severe weather outbreak is likely across portions of the south tomorrow night with the potential for several tornadoes, a few of which may be EF2 or greater. Interested to see the actual morning observations and satellite tomorrow. 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited November 20, 2023 by WeatherArc

[WeatherArc]

Multiple storms have now formed and are tracking across east texas, many clustered as suspected but this little cell out on its own really needs watching.