Model Output Discussion - Into February

[feb1991blizzard]

11 minutes ago, pinball wizard said:

[Ali1977]

Day 9, let’s see if we get a sudden burst of WAA

 

Day 11 looks like it coukd happen again. Way out in FI but it’s something to watch for 

Edited February 11, 2023 by Ali1977

[lassie23]

It's all way too early to get interesting, granted if nothing is showing in 10 days' time then February is deadbuary.

[Ali1977]

Just now, johncam said:

I think Feb is already a right off 

 

 

Not on this run it won’t be. 

[Battleground Snow]

Fascinating insight from the one liners as usual....

I haven't posted in a week or so because it still looks like we are waiting to see how the house of cards will fall later in the month.

There will be some crazy charts appearing soon, whether that means UK cold or not still remains unknown. Until we get them into the 96-144 period everything is on the table, from mild southwesterlies to the Siberian express.

Edited February 11, 2023 by Battleground Snow

[Scandinavian High.]

6 minutes ago, johncam said:

I think Feb is already a right off 

 

 

Why

[Purga]

A 'pubby' developing....

[ICE COLD]

Evening. Mega cold to the north

Edited February 11, 2023 by ICE COLD

[Ali1977]

That’s a cold one The good thing is if this is MJO driven we know what’s coming next  - I really think we are on the cusp of a really prolonged cold March!! 

Edited February 11, 2023 by Ali1977

[ICE COLD]

It’s re amplifying on this run should turn into stonkersvile

[bluearmy]

That looks like another run with a downwelling wave which allows ridging to our west

[ICE COLD]

Not quite on this run, a few more days on and it would of but boy that’s some high pressure . Interesting few weeks ahead

Edited February 11, 2023 by ICE COLD

[Cuban Zebra]

36 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Not quite on this run, a few more days on and it would of but boy that’s some high pressure . Interesting few weeks ahead

Further proof that an SSW does not guarantee us cold weather!!

Rubbish really, limpet high pressure all the run through, limpet lobe of PV over Canada, both need to change but don’t show any sign of doing!!

[Neilsouth]

1 minute ago, Cuban Zebra said:

Further proof that an SSW does not guarantee us cold weather!!

Rubbish really, limpet high pressure all the run through, limpet lobe of PV over Canada, both need to change but don’t show any sign of doing!!

What proof, it's only 11th FEB and after affects of the SSW doesn't really impact till late FEB into March

[Paul White.]

32 minutes ago, Cuban Zebra said:

Further proof that an SSW does not guarantee us cold weather!!

Rubbish really, limpet high pressure all the run through, limpet lobe of PV over Canada, both need to change but don’t show any sign of doing!!

Further proof ? Two things about that chart it will be cold and secondly it shows heights to the north of the uk 

Edited February 12, 2023 by Paul White.
It was too hostile towards the member

[Ruzzi]

5 minutes ago, Cuban Zebra said:

Further proof that an SSW does not guarantee us cold weather!!

Rubbish really, limpet high pressure all the run through, limpet lobe of PV over Canada, both need to change but don’t show any sign of doing!!

Not this again!  Give it a chance.

 

You are correct, a SSW does not guarantee cold. That being said, a day 16 GFS chart also does not guarantee that it will be the outcome on thst day either. Normal rules still apply.... at no time would we take a day 16 chart in isolation as gospel, just the same as if it were showing -18 850's and strong easterly winds.

Infact model volatility will be increased and reliability reduced at this given stage, with a progressing MJO signal and the lag effects of it, coupled with the upcoming SSW which has not yet happened as a technical SSW is still a good few days away, the models will not home in on a solution with any certainty even in the medium range, let alone 16 days out. It's still very much a sit back and enjoy the ride scenario just now and see how it plays out. 

For the avoidance of doubt..... and for the majority, if not all of the members.... I'm sure we all are in full agreement  that a SSW does not guarantee a favourable outcome for cold and snow etc.

There is no knee jerk reactions required to a day 16 chart which by all accounts will look totally different in 6 hours time. 

The amount of comments and meaningless charts that have been thrown about over the past week or so to try and back up the notion that cold and snow is not guaranteed 'because a SSW doesn't guarantee cold' continually derails the direction of discussion which has been first class btw!

It's not a dig at anyone, it's just an acknowledgement that it is agreed across the board that we are not guaranteed cold and snow, we all know it. The reason we're here is to watch how it plays out and the interest that's attached to an unfamiliar weather period and to share opinions of how it may go and reasons why etc. The very reason we are here is precisely because..... you guessed it..... let it be said for the last time...... "because a SSW does not guarantee cold and snow" 

The majority want to see if this will be an occasion where it does lead to a favourable outcome and then following on from that, the post analysis of how it all came together to maybe give that extra little bit if help and understanding for the next it comes around. 

Harped on enough, c'mon the SSW!!

Buzzing to look out the window in 2-3 weeks time at my guaranteed 2 feet of snow

[Cheshire Freeze]

7 hours ago, Purga said:

A nice chart in deep FI on the face of it. Doesn't yield any snow (sod all even in the Highlands) and daytime temps around 4C not very exciting..

   

RE daytime temperatures…that’s the issue with the time of year. Even in 2018 the temperature rose above 0 for a short period during the middle of the day…and that was with exceptional uppers.

If something like 2018 happened early Jan then we’d be looking at circa -5c max temperatures. 

[Daniel*]

54 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

RE daytime temperatures…that’s the issue with the time of year. Even in 2018 the temperature rose above 0 for a short period during the middle of the day…and that was with exceptional uppers.

If something like 2018 happened early Jan then we’d be looking at circa -5c max temperatures. 

I had to check and well they didn’t for 99% not during the real arrival of the beast.

28th Feb 2018 max temps and 1st March 2018 comfortably subzero… Midlands for example -3C maxes parts of Wales had -5C maxes. Maybe some forget how cold it was. Unprecedented event for time of year. The GFS is pants with cold temps in my experience particularly in deep FI although we shouldn’t ignore the increased solar input, it does take more to become noticeable cold spell, but an exceptionally cold air mass will do justice in that case probably to mid March. There still is time albeit not a lot of it, of course ideally it would be a month earlier. Adjust expectations a week of snow cover what some of us experienced in December is a very long shot.

Edited February 12, 2023 by Daniel*

[londonblizzard]

57 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

I had to check and well they didn’t for 99% not during the real arrival of the beast.

28th Feb 2018 max temps and 1st March 2018 comfortably subzero… Midlands for example -3C maxes parts of Wales had -5C maxes. Maybe some forget how cold it was. Unprecedented event for time of year. The GFS is pants with cold temps in my experience particularly in deep FI although we shouldn’t ignore the increased solar input, it does take more to become noticeable cold spell, but an exceptionally cold air mass will do justice in that case probably to mid March. There still is time albeit not a lot of it, of course ideally it would be a month earlier. Adjust expectations a week of snow cover what some of us experienced in December is a very long shot.

Yep, I was in central London on 28th Feb and where I was I don't believe the temperature got above -1.5C. Pretty exceptional for C. London although I believe this was the day with the -15 uppers. 

[Weather-history]

18z GFS 500hpa mean at 384hrs

 

The high pressure is turning into a limpet 

Is this going to collapse in a horrible washout in time for spring and maybe even summer? Or is this the indication of a year that is going to be high pressure dominated like 1921? Is 2023 going to be a very dry year?

 

[KTtom]

11 hours ago, Stuie W said:

Going to get slayed for this but every winter there are 14 day charts showing a cold invasion. I do understand this `may` have legs but posting 14 day charts is just keeping the forum going.

Was going to post something similar yesterday then thought twice However, you hit the nail on the head, whether its the upgrades or just how dismal the prospects have been this winter but routinely gfs used to  throw up mouth watering charts in the outer reaches of fi on a constant basis, sadly lacking this year until now...18z looked likely to develop into smething interesting 00Z couldnt be less interesting if it tried... T 384 very similar to T 0.  Agree with posters last night, very unlikely to see anything intersting until turn of the month. 

[Tills]

Some welcome rain for us gardeners in the south:

The north should continue to have plenty:

 

Edited February 12, 2023 by Tills

[mulzy]

12 minutes ago, Tills said:

Some welcome rain for us gardeners in the south:

The north should continue to have plenty:

 

If we can’t have snow, let high pressure rule the roost.  Rain can wait till Autumn..

[Frosty_wsm]

4 hours ago, Daniel* said:

I had to check and well they didn’t for 99% not during the real arrival of the beast.

28th Feb 2018 max temps and 1st March 2018 comfortably subzero… Midlands for example -3C maxes parts of Wales had -5C maxes. Maybe some forget how cold it was. Unprecedented event for time of year. The GFS is pants with cold temps in my experience particularly in deep FI although we shouldn’t ignore the increased solar input, it does take more to become noticeable cold spell, but an exceptionally cold air mass will do justice in that case probably to mid March. There still is time albeit not a lot of it, of course ideally it would be a month earlier. Adjust expectations a week of snow cover what some of us experienced in December is a very long shot.

Even here in North Somerset we had daytime temps of around - 2 for a couple of days during that bfte so someone has a very short memory of how cold that event actually was for the time of year. 

Edited February 12, 2023 by Smartie

[Stuie]

Fairly good agreement to build heights to our NW at T168. UKMO/GEFS/ECM