Summer 2023 chat

[Guest]

I just looked at some of the obs, pretty soupy for so early with Northolt 23/18C shortly after 9am. 

[LetItSnow!]

It’s too early to say but looks like we’re at least having a shot at another hot summer and if things stay persistently hot + a heat pump, I wonder could we even outdo last summer? Perhaps naive of me but I never thought that was possible! Still a long way to go get though. 

[SunSean]

Noticed a few posts about August being the worst or best month of summer so thought I'd compare the recent 17 years (2006-2022) to the previous 17 (1989-2005) using Heathrow sunshine duration percentage. Here is a list from top to bottom of the months that have improved the most for sunshine to those who have regressed the most-

1. April +2.4% (42.4 v 40)

2. March +1.8% (33.5 v 31.7)

3. February -2.1% (26.1 v 28.2)

4. December -2.1% (19.9 v 22)

5. September -2.6% (37.8 v 40.4)

6. January -3.2% (20.7 v 23.9)

7. November -4.8% (23.6 v 28.4)

8. July -4.9% (39.4 v 44.3)

9. June -5.4% (36.7 v 42.1)

10. October -6.2% (30.4 v 36.6)

11. May -7.2% (37.6 v 44.8)

12. August -12.9% (36.6 v 49.5)

March and April are the only 2 months to have become sunnier during this time period. August had a monumental drop off, going from the sunniest month on average to the same percentage as what October used to get between 89-06. Having said that, the sunshine amounts seem to be improving again since 2018 for most months so maybe we will experience another golden era like 89-06 again and see the percentages recover. Here's hoping!

 

[SunnyG]

Netweather  has now updated forecast for today in London: we went from thunderstorms all afternoon to low probability of storms at 6pm.

[Summer8906]

9 hours ago, FetchCB said:

I understand that but the way the weather is these days it's one or the other..seems the middle ground which has made the UK a favourable location from an historical point of view is a diminishing option

I know what you mean. The kind of summer with many days in the 21-25 range with sunshine, broken by occasional thundery episodes or weak frontal systems delivering moderate rain but not a prolonged unsettled spell, seems to be rare these days.

Instead we get something like August 2020. Dull, wet and miserable for most of the month, and the one break from it has extreme humidity.

Edited June 18, 2023 by Summer8906

[Summer8906]

1 hour ago, SunSean said:

Noticed a few posts about August being the worst or best month of summer so thought I'd compare the recent 17 years (2006-2022) to the previous 17 (1989-2005) using Heathrow sunshine duration percentage. Here is a list from top to bottom of the months that have improved the most for sunshine to those who have regressed the most-

1. April +2.4% (42.4 v 40)

2. March +1.8% (33.5 v 31.7)

3. February -2.1% (26.1 v 28.2)

4. December -2.1% (19.9 v 22)

5. September -2.6% (37.8 v 40.4)

6. January -3.2% (20.7 v 23.9)

7. November -4.8% (23.6 v 28.4)

8. July -4.9% (39.4 v 44.3)

9. June -5.4% (36.7 v 42.1)

10. October -6.2% (30.4 v 36.6)

11. May -7.2% (37.6 v 44.8)

12. August -12.9% (36.6 v 49.5)

March and April are the only 2 months to have become sunnier during this time period. August had a monumental drop off, going from the sunniest month on average to the same percentage as what October used to get between 89-06. Having said that, the sunshine amounts seem to be improving again since 2018 for most months so maybe we will experience another golden era like 89-06 again and see the percentages recover. Here's hoping!

 

Very interesting to see that, thanks. So for Heathrow, it does indeed look like April is now the sunniest month of the year in terms of percentage sunshine and interesting to see that most months have become cloudier.

 

[Summer8906]

1 hour ago, LetItSnow! said:

It’s too early to say but looks like we’re at least having a shot at another hot summer and if things stay persistently hot + a heat pump, I wonder could we even outdo last summer? Perhaps naive of me but I never thought that was possible! Still a long way to go get though. 

I remain unconvinced simply because June isn't necessarily typical of the summer. 1986, 1992 and 2010 are good examples. On the other hand 2006 was of course followed by a hot July.

So I think it could go either way though if I had to guess, I'd say July will end up being very average (a bit of a 'hedging your bets' option, I know, but also based on the Atlantic being more active in the models albeit mostly affecting the north for now).

Edited June 18, 2023 by Summer8906

[Summer8906]

1 hour ago, Alderc said:

I just looked at some of the obs, pretty soupy for so early with Northolt 23/18C shortly after 9am. 

I guess we're seeing "Madeiran" conditions right now in some ways (this is based off actual personal experience). Warm nights, but only moderately warm days, and quite a bit of cloud around albeit still bright.

[dryfie]

I see in the latest forecast that "Parts of the East and South East have seen hardly any rain since mid-May".  So sorry to read that.

[Catbrainz]

I am wondering in NW/SE split set ups how does the SW and NE tend to fare? I guess South Wales counts as SW so ill give how it tends to run out for here. If the split is stable we tend to join ether one or end up in a battleground between the two set ups. Like say NW has 7 days of rain and SE 7 days of sun often we end up with 3/4 days of rain and 3/4 days of sun. 

[Summer8906]

6 minutes ago, Catbrainz said:

I am wondering in NW/SE split set ups how does the SW and NE tend to fare? I guess South Wales counts as SW so ill give how it tends to run out for here. If the split is stable we tend to join ether one or end up in a battleground between the two set ups. Like say NW has 7 days of rain and SE 7 days of sun often we end up with 3/4 days of rain and 3/4 days of sun. 

I'm not quite in the SW (I think of it as west Dorset (west of about Dorchester), Somerset, Devon and Cornwall) but here (S Hampshire) NW-SE setups tend to be fairly dry but also fairly cloudy. Temps can vary from cool days and warm nights if dull Tm air sets in, to warmish days and cooler nights on the sunnier days when polar air gets in. So ironically, the polar-air days can give higher day temps than the Tm days due to the sunshine; the early part of both July 2010 and July 2016 were very good examples of this.

July 2010 and 2016 and August 2009 were perhaps classic NW-SE split summer months. All three were dry but sunshine was average at best or even a little below.

Edited June 18, 2023 by Summer8906

[hillbilly]

1 hour ago, LetItSnow! said:

It’s too early to say but looks like we’re at least having a shot at another hot summer and if things stay persistently hot + a heat pump, I wonder could we even outdo last summer? Perhaps naive of me but I never thought that was possible! Still a long way to go get though. 

I have been saying for a while now that the great memorable summers come in pairs 75/76,83/84,89/90,95/96, and there is every chance the pair 2022/2023 could follow suit.

[SunSean]

12 minutes ago, hillbilly said:

I have been saying for a while now that the great memorable summers come in pairs 75/76,83/84,89/90,95/96, and there is every chance the pair 2022/2023 could follow suit.

I thought this also although I didn't want to jinx myself by saying it haha. Definitely good potential for it to be another memorable summer

[mb018538]

A lot less activity than the UKV was predicting for midday currently showing on the radar....perhaps it'll ignite fairly soon.

[reef]

1 hour ago, SunSean said:

Noticed a few posts about August being the worst or best month of summer so thought I'd compare the recent 17 years (2006-2022) to the previous 17 (1989-2005) using Heathrow sunshine duration percentage. Here is a list from top to bottom of the months that have improved the most for sunshine to those who have regressed the most-

1. April +2.4% (42.4 v 40)

2. March +1.8% (33.5 v 31.7)

3. February -2.1% (26.1 v 28.2)

4. December -2.1% (19.9 v 22)

5. September -2.6% (37.8 v 40.4)

6. January -3.2% (20.7 v 23.9)

7. November -4.8% (23.6 v 28.4)

8. July -4.9% (39.4 v 44.3)

9. June -5.4% (36.7 v 42.1)

10. October -6.2% (30.4 v 36.6)

11. May -7.2% (37.6 v 44.8)

12. August -12.9% (36.6 v 49.5)

March and April are the only 2 months to have become sunnier during this time period. August had a monumental drop off, going from the sunniest month on average to the same percentage as what October used to get between 89-06. Having said that, the sunshine amounts seem to be improving again since 2018 for most months so maybe we will experience another golden era like 89-06 again and see the percentages recover. Here's hoping!

 

Its not a fair comparison. Heathrow used a different sunshine recorder from September 2005 (Kipp & Zonen auto recorder vs Campbell Stokes before) on so the raw figures are not comparable at this point. For a similar comparison, you need to multiply the figures post-2005 by approximately 10% (though this varies month to month)/

Edited June 18, 2023 by reef

[danm]

1 hour ago, SunnyG said:

Netweather  has now updated forecast for today in London: we went from thunderstorms all afternoon to low probability of storms at 6pm.

I think it’s a dead cert we’ll see some big thunderstorms over the next few hours:

 

It’s already 25c here in London. Feels very warm and humid out there. 

[SunSean]

13 minutes ago, reef said:

Its not a fair comparison. Heathrow used a different sunshine recorder from September 2005 (Kipp & Zonen auto recorder vs Campbell Stokes before) on so the raw figures are not comparable at this point. For a similar comparison, you need to multiply the figures post-2005 by approximately 10% (though this varies month to month)/

Not saying you're wrong but this still makes no sense to me though- Why would Heathrow's station simply not do this themselves? Also the fact that prior to 1989, the figures were less or in the same ballpark as the 06-22 period.

2006-2022 v 1975-1988

Jan 20.7 v 21.8 (-1.1%)

Feb 28.2 v 23.8 (+4.4%) 

Mar 33.5 v 26.8 (+6.7%)

Apr 42.4 v 36.4 (+6%)

May 37.6 v 37.3 (+0.3%)

Jun 36.7 v 37.9 (-1.2%)

Jul 39.4 v 39 (+0.4%)

Aug 36.6 v 42.2 (-5.6%)

Sep 37.8 v 37.5 (+0.3%)

Oct 30.4 v 32 (-1.6%)

Nov 23.6 v 25.5 (-1.9%)

Dec 19.9 v 19 (+0.9%) 

We were sunnier 7 months out of 12 comparing to the 1975-1988 average- is this still an unfair comparison?

Perhaps the 89-06 period was so good in terms of sunshine that we believe there may be something wrong with recent sunshine recordings and if this is the case, was prior to 1989 so awful that it was less than when the sunshine recorder was switched? Hence my confusion!

Edited June 18, 2023 by SunSean

[Summer Sun]

Still early yet, but it's looking like a decent weekend for Glasto

[reef]

3 minutes ago, SunSean said:

This still makes no sense to me though- Why would Heathrow's station simply not do this themselves? Also the fact that prior to 1989, the figures were less or in the same ballpark as the 06-22 period.

Stations just report raw numbers regardless. Any adjustment is done afterwards.

The fact is, the 1961-1990 average for August at Heathrow was 186.62 hours. The 1991-2020 average is 202.12 hours. The 1989-2006 period had an unusually high number of 'good' Augusts, but even if you used the mean most central to that period (1981-2010), the average is still just 204.67 hours.

Although it may not seem like it. We're getting sunnier in the UK as the decades pass. You'll always get spells in there that deviate but Heathrow's annual averages show it:

1961-1990: 1519.44 hrs
1971-2000: 1574.23 hrs
1981-2010: 1632.58 hrs
1991-2020: 1674.81 hrs

[Luke Bowett]

A hazy day but temps at a comfortable 23C where I am now with maximum expected to be 24C between 14:00 & 15:00. Got woken up by a thunderstorm moving over at about 04:00, with more forecast later on in the evening.

 

[MattStoke]

27°C at London City Airport and Northolt. UKV had 27°C in London as the UK’s highest temperature today. Other models too low, again.

Edited June 18, 2023 by MattStoke

[SunSean]

8 minutes ago, reef said:

Stations just report raw numbers regardless. Any adjustment is done afterwards.

The fact is, the 1961-1990 average for August at Heathrow was 186.62 hours. The 1991-2020 average is 202.12 hours. The 1989-2006 period had an unusually high number of 'good' Augusts, but even if you used the mean most central to that period (1981-2010), the average is still just 204.67 hours.

Although it may not seem like it. We're getting sunnier in the UK as the decades pass. You'll always get spells in there that deviate but Heathrow's annual averages show it:

1961-1990: 1519.44 hrs
1971-2000: 1574.23 hrs
1981-2010: 1632.58 hrs
1991-2020: 1674.81 hrs

I do actually agree that we are getting sunnier, thankfully! I don't think I would have enjoyed living through the 60's 70's and 80's being a sun lover (Barring the obvious standout years like 75, 76, 83, 84, 89 etc).

[Howie]

It's very very humid today, the air feels thick

[Sunny76]

9 minutes ago, SunSean said:

I do actually agree that we are getting sunnier, thankfully! I don't think I would have enjoyed living through the 60's 70's and 80's being a sun lover (Barring the obvious standout years like 75, 76, 83, 84, 89 etc).

I vaguely remember it, being born in 76. Remember hot and sunny periods of 83 and 84, but prior to that it was fairly bleak for a few years.

[SunSean]

Surprisingly sunny morning which was not on the forecast at all. Satellite shows clouds encroaching but its still turned out way better than the predicted zero hours of sunshine that was forecast!